Food & Resource Security

A close look at the reams of official data available suggests a more humdrum explanation. Public information and signs of a demand peak that analysts have been

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can explain almost all the loss of nearly five million barrels a day in May.

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GulfLander said:

Allegely, China has put an additional 55% tariff on Aus Beef starting june 20 midnight, since allegedly, 100% of required imported beef has already been purchased.

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Australian beef exports to China will face an additional 55% tariff starting this weekend after hitting Beijing’s annual

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, which could impact trade flows and prompt producers to seek new markets for red meat. The Chinese government

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imposed a quota of 205,000 tons on beef imports from Australia as part of a range of trade limits on major red meat-producing nations, including Brazil and Argentina, in a push to protect local farmers.

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This article examines China’s comprehensive mobilization policies undertaken since the early 2020s. Analysis reveals that they span multiple domains. First, China is developing a protected inland reserve of critical industrial capacity. Second, it is strengthening emergency supply mechanisms and accelerating the accumulation of food and raw-material reserves. Third, it is enhancing civil defense and urban infrastructure resilience, including the expansion of the ‘people’s air defense’ system. Fourth, recently amended legislation now regulates military service and the government’s obligations towards fallen servicemen’s families. The scope and pace of these measures indicate that Beijing anticipates a severe military-political crisis in the coming decade. This partly explains Chinese foreign policy’s apparent contradictions, with stated global ambitions coexisting alongside strategic caution and risk aversion.

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Wrought said:

Russian paper on whole-of-society stockpiling and resilience efforts in recent years.

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GulfLander said:

why do they see this as "contradictions"?

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The measures’ extreme cost indicates that, although the Chinese leadership advances optimistic conceptions like the Community of Common Destiny for Mankind and a “universally beneficial, inclusive economic globalization,” the leadership actually adheres to an extremely bleak outlook for the world in the 21st century. It is preparing—at the very least—for a severe military and political crisis, including the disruption of all normal economic ties and a slide to the brink of war. At worst, it is preparing for even more nightmarish scenarios.

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Wrought said:

Idealistic rhetoric + worst-case preparations.

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lcloo said:

Chinese consumers have been changing their preference for other meat proteins than pork, and the trend has cause oversupply of pork and resulted in cheap pork prices.

Imported soybean are almost exclusively used as farmed animal feed for pigs. Lesser demand for pork resulted in less demand for imported soybean. Compare to previous decades in China, more beef, mutton, chicken and seafood are in greater demand over pork.

Thus it is inevitable that China's soybean imported will be reduced in the future.

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_killuminati_ said:

It's also used for poultry. I believe there is a general trend around the world to reduce the use of or replace soybean meal feeds.

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While the energy shocks and supply chain challenges stemming from the war have posed some challenges for China, the country has largely managed to avoid the kind of inflation spike and cascading economic and political effects that have afflicted many other nations. The reason: China’s oil and gas reserves and clean energy supplies have allowed it to avoid the worst of the effects, according to

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published Monday by The Asia Group, a Washington-based consulting firm. That is reinforcing the country’s position as a competitive place for manufacturing. The firm looked at the effects of disruptions in the strait and how it affected Asian economies and politics. One main takeaway is that the crisis has demonstrated Beijing’s ability to use prices, export controls, subsidies and a managed currency to absorb shocks in its economy.

The disruptions spurred by the United States have also helped Beijing to promote itself to other countries as the stable partner of choice, and accelerated global demand for clean energy technology like solar panels, batteries and electric vehicles, industries that China dominates. “It’s hard not to come to the conclusion that China is a winner here,” said Kurt Campbell, the chairman and co-founder of The Asia Group and a former deputy U.S. secretary of state in the Biden administration.

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