F-15 Eagle Thread

Brumby

Major
“There’s more to think about than just the acquisition cost. There’s the cost to operate the airplane over time. There’s the cost to transition at the installations where the airplanes are — does it require new military construction, does it require extensive retraining of the people and then how long does it take?” he said. “We’re pretty confident to say that we can go cheaper getting 72 airplanes with a mix of fifth and fourth gen than we did if we did all fifth gen.”
We know it has always been about the numbers or the lack of it currently in inventory since they truncated the F-22 program. His statement is indirectly avoiding an obvious point and that is the sustainment cost of the F-35. The selling point of the F-15X is a projected operating cost of $27k/hr compare to >$42K/hr for a F-35. It is bad optics to denigrate the F-35 in trying to sell the idea of a F-15X.
 

Brumby

Major
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An excellent article written by retired lieutenant general David Deptula on the ongoing debate over the F-15X. General Depula's article while lengthy does cover all the important areas of the debate between the F-15X vs F-35, both pro and cons. Completely worthwhile reading the whole article.

I would just like to add a couple of points which are not about capability but around a budgeting environment that limits deciion making. Firstly, F-35s are clearly meant for the high end fight and the more you have the better it is. The problem is that it is just not cost effective for the F-35s to perform mundane task because of its high operating cost. Therefore a mixed force while not ideal reflects reality that one may never get into a high end fight but the day to day mundane activities do continue. Tied to this is the sustainment cost of the F-35s. Personally I don't belive they will ever be able to get the operatimng cost they are promising - not with a 5th gen plane. I expect high ongoing sustainment cost and the more F-35s you have the more budget breaking it will become. We do have by now historical tending records on the B-2 and the F-22 in terms of maintenance and they are getting worst and not better with their availability. The same can be expected of the F-35s. There are no free lunches. You have to pay for end capabilities. They don't come cheap.
 

TerraN_EmpirE

Tyrant King
d7d0ba0c56392c4565903854edf8ee3f5cacef0c746a70a202ac2d734b459692.png
So @Jeff Head @Jura @Air Force Brat @Brumby
Here is the plan.
For 5 Years The USAF buys 80 F15X 8 starting FY20. 18 per year there after. As a result the USAF cuts back it's F35A order to 48 per year. Originally the plan was 54 per year.
The math works to 3 F35 for every 1 F15X.
Oh and the price tag. The 8 F15 that will be delivered are off the F15QA line they will be in QA configuration and be used to develop the final product F15CX F15EX. Cost of said fighter? $131 Million dollars estimate.
 

Brumby

Major
View attachment 51388
So @Jeff Head @Jura @Air Force Brat @Brumby
Here is the plan.
For 5 Years The USAF buys 80 F15X 8 starting FY20. 18 per year there after. As a result the USAF cuts back it's F35A order to 48 per year. Originally the plan was 54 per year.
The math works to 3 F35 for every 1 F15X.
Oh and the price tag. The 8 F15 that will be delivered are off the F15QA line they will be in QA configuration and be used to develop the final product F15CX F15EX. Cost of said fighter? $131 Million dollars estimate.

The following are extracted from the FY2020 weapons program.

upload_2019-3-19_20-28-5.png
upload_2019-3-19_20-28-47.png
The total acquisition cost remain the same. However my understanding is that the $1.05 billion budgeted for the 8 F-15X include infrastructure costs associated with the F-15X program. Unfortunately the breakdown is not provided. I think it would be problematic both from optics and financial feasibility if the per unit cost is around $131 million. I had the impression that the pricing would be sharp and be competitive at F-35 pricing of $85 million each. If the unit cost is at $131 million, it would be a non starter in my opinion.
 

TerraN_EmpirE

Tyrant King
now saw some detractors were cheering

actually it's not funny after several decades of talking force-multiplier game-changer
It's not funny especially if the end product costs more per unit than the F35.
All technology is meant to be force multiplying. It has been since the printing press meant books didn't take years to hand copy.
One of the features of the F15QA it's expanded weapons carry is ment to be a force multiplier. Game changing it was but now the rear of the players are catching up.
 

TerraN_EmpirE

Tyrant King
The following are extracted from the FY2020 weapons program.

View attachment 51390
View attachment 51391
The total acquisition cost remain the same. However my understanding is that the $1.05 billion budgeted for the 8 F-15X include infrastructure costs associated with the F-15X program. Unfortunately the breakdown is not provided. I think it would be problematic both from optics and financial feasibility if the per unit cost is around $131 million. I had the impression that the pricing would be sharp and be competitive at F-35 pricing of $85 million each. If the unit cost is at $131 million, it would be a non starter in my opinion.
Agreed. The source for my post said 5 years for 80 That Intergraph is out to 144 that would be a 6 year buy of 46 more. And the price point higher than we were lead to believe. It's on par with a modern fighter of either 5th or 4.5+ But not the deal of the century.
 
I'll pick just this part:
All technology is meant to be force multiplying. It has been since the printing press meant books didn't take years to hand copy.
of #316 TerraN_EmpirE, Today at 2:36 PM

here are my thoughts on "force multiplying" (in the present context, not a vague description as in
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LOL)
:

well, first check EDIT if interested hahaha
Feb 18, 2019
here's the simulation

(just
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with attrition coefficients based on
STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS OF US FIGHTER FORCE REDUCTIONS:
AIR-TO-AIR COMBAT MODELING USING LANCHESTER EQUATIONS
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from 2011, now:
3.3 for "F-35" (as was for the Raptor against the Flanker in there, Table 4)
and 0.7 for "4 Gen" (was 0.8 for the Flanker against the Raptor in there, Table 4);
there's like background in the thread which is gone
Mathematical model of air-to-air combat and loses https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/mathematical-model-of-air-to-air-combat-and-loses.t6641/
):

SDF_1.jpg


in the final time-point the solver says
4.6847 "F-35s" which means four remaining out of the initial 12,
and 0.7774 "4 Gen" which means none remaining out of the initial 24

so? so some other model (or "model") was in play at Red Flag 17-1, I guess
showing how twelve better aircraft would win against twenty-four worse aircraft;

now "force multiplier" would be to come up with even better aircraft, yes,

BUT if they just send MORE (fourteen instead of twelve) of the same better aircraft against the same twenty-four worse aircraft ("the same" of course refers to what's already in Feb 18, 2019) ...:
SDF2.jpg

they'll win while loosing only four aircraft ("win" here means no opponents remaining), see? yet another "force multiplier"
 
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TerraN_EmpirE

Tyrant King
Yes Jura you have gone over this before. But here is the thing in regards to F15X you are not getting more aircraft.
The numbers game is 1763 F35 to at max 144 F15X.
 
here's the FlightGlobal story (dated March 14)
US Air Force sees F-15EX as cheap and quick fix
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The US Air Force (USAF) is requesting funds from Congress for eight Boeing F-15EX fighters instead of more of its favoured aircraft, the Lockheed Martin F-35A Lightning II stealth fighter, in a move aimed at cutting costs.

Over the past year and a half, the Office of the Secretary of Defense and the Joint Chiefs of Staff have come up with the idea as a means to quickly and cheaply replace the USAF’s ageing F-15C fleet, which will be ready for retirement in the 2020s, says a source familiar with discussions around the Pentagon's force planning.

The new-build F-15 was not part of the service's original budget plans, but was added because the type has lower lifetime operating costs, the USAF acknowledges. The service is committed to buying 72 fighters per year, but cannot afford to purchase only F-35As because of that aircraft's high operating costs – which average about $35,000 per hour.

"Our challenge was when you look at the force structure that we have there were four fourth-[generation] airplanes – F-16, F-15E, A-10 and F-15C – that we need to fly in [the] 2030s. The F-15C is not going to make it. It is old and it is not going to fly past the mid-20s,” USAF chief of staff General David Goldfein said in testimony to the US Senate Appropriations Committee on 13 March.

"We used the best cost estimate that we had at the time and looked at the various options. The most affordable options – as long as we keep the F-35 absolutely on track with our programme of record – was to look at an F-15 variant to replace the F-15C."

As part of the Department of Defense’s fiscal year 2020 funding request, the USAF is initially requesting $1.1 billion for eight F-15EXs. The service plans to request 80 of the aircraft in total over the next five years, costing roughly $80 million each. The first F-15EXs are expected to be delivered in FY2022.

The F-15EX is a slightly modified version of the Advanced F-15, a newer variant not in the USAF inventory, which has been purchased by Qatar.

Part of the expected operating savings will come from easier transitions for pilots and maintenance personnel from the F-15C to the F-15EX.

"If you transition an F-15 to any other airplane it takes about 24 months if it’s an active duty squadron, or 36 months if it's a [National] Guard squadron, for it to be deployable again and be back to the top of its readiness," the source says. "You’ve got to send all those pilots to Luke [AFB] to train them and then the maintainers to Sheppard [AFB], or wherever your conversion schools are going to be."

The USAF estimates that the transition time from an F-15 squadron to an F-35 squadron takes roughly 18 months for an active duty squadron and 36 months for an Air National Guard squadron. It estimates that six months or less will be required to transition from the F-15C to the F-15EX.

The transition period takes aircraft out of the USAF inventory, hurting its average readiness rates, which would be contrary to former Secretary of Defense James Mattis's goal of increasing this metric to above 80%.

In addition, as with any aircraft, when the USAF introduces the F-35A to its squadrons it has to re-equip those units with support equipment and an inventory of spare parts. The F-15 was introduced in 1976 and the USAF has already built a support structure around it.

"About 70% of the existing spare inventory already works on the [F-15EX]," says the source. “From the support equipment standpoint – so we are talking power carts [and] ladders – more than 90% of those [the USAF] already has."

The air force says it is still evaluating its spare inventory and equipment needs.

Lastly, the F-15EX is seen as a reliable launch pad for new, larger weapons, in particular hypersonic missiles that will not fit inside the F-35A's internal weapons bay, the source notes.

"We've got to carry a [7,000lb] to 8,000lb weapon that is enormous and doesn't fit in an internal bay," says the source. "And we need a very reliable platform that we well understand, that has power, space and cooling, and we can adapt quickly over the next 10, 12 or 15 years."

The USAF says hypersonic weapons are still in early stages of development, and that it is too early to know which platforms will be able to carry them.

Ultimately, Goldfein says the F-15EX cannot fully substitute for the F-35A, which he prizes for its stealth, as well as its sensor fusion: the ability to gather and distribute information to other aircraft.

"The F-15 will never be the F-35," he says. "It wasn’t designed to be."
 
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