Discussing Biden's Potential China Policy

gadgetcool5 said:

There is no problem with what you wrote. The problem is China seems to be going beyond this. For instance, why did the Xinjiang birth rate drop by almost 50% in just two years 2018-19? If the birth rate of a US minority dropped by 50% in two years I would say it is highly suspicious and unexplainable by any normal means. As @Josh Luo has said, the harsh measures that have been imposed were not necessary. They could have achieved the result with softer measures like economic incentives for assimilation, resettlement and to promote intermarriage gradually.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1364530097701576706

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gadgetcool5 said:

There is no problem with what you wrote. The problem is China seems to be going beyond this. For instance, why did the Xinjiang birth rate drop by almost 50% in just two years 2018-19? If the birth rate of a US minority dropped by 50% in two years I would say it is highly suspicious and unexplainable by any normal means. As @Josh Luo has said, the harsh measures that have been imposed were not necessary. They could have achieved the result with softer measures like economic incentives for assimilation, resettlement and to promote intermarriage gradually.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1364530097701576706

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Hendrik_2000 said:

Birth rate drop happened naturally when the larger population are better educated and decide they have better thing to do then producing baby. It happened in Han China too , Singapore, Japan, Korea, Taiwan all those countries experience decrease in birth rate. IN Singapore the government give all kind of incentive to produce more babies direct subsidy to substantial amount $20,000 for the first child , preferential treatment in home purchase etc but all of them failed to reverse the trend. Having too many children is burdened the family with expenses, free time, obligation, etc

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gadgetcool5 said:

Yes but in those countries it happened gradually, I cannot find any case of a 50% drop in just two years.

Yes the two-child policy being introduced I can see it dropping the birth rate to China's national average, but not well below China's national average. Since Xinjiang people naturally have higher fertility it should still have been higher than average even after the 2-child law was enforced equally.

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Hendrik_2000 said:

I don't know why you are convinced that what China did is repulsive cultural eradication? Insisting that everybody learn the national language is the norm in every country Did US allow ethnic language training in their public school ? No of course but China did . You cannot just teach the children Putonghua when at home and with their friend they use Uyghur and expect they will be fluent in Putonghua What China did is to speed the integration of larger Uyghur population in southern Xinjiang by forcing adult to learnt the national language See Xinjinag can be divided into 2 region south and north The northern part of Xinjiang is pretty well assimilated because historically it was the Han Chinese who developed and populated the area so the Uyghur in that region is recent immigrant so they have no choice but to learn the language But the southern part is mostly populated by the Uyghur and hardly any Han before liberation.

Like everything else China copy Russian system in how they dealt with the minority allowing them latitude and autonomy in maintaining their culture and language which has the effect of separating Han and Uyghur population in southern Xinjiang which result in less investment and development translate into poverty and backwardness. And the separatist exploit this vulnerability just like in Hongkong and resulted in riot of 2009. I guess China has enough of this constant riot and decide drastic measure must be taken and not surprising since the guy now in charge used to be governor of Tibet and he seem to have good result in Tibet as you yourself witness There is now more integration in Tibet. As to intermarriage it happened to some degree in Xinjiang too but the chasm is larger in Xinjiang than in Tibet since the majority of Uyghur are moslem and you have to be converted to moslem to marry Uyghur girl And the custom and habit is so different between Han and UYghur. The government encourage intermarriage by giving subsidy and preferential treatment in housing allocation and education but few taker.

What China did is to hold tight lease on religion and I agree with this since traditionally Uyghur moslem is very tolerant and secular but with opening up there is more opportunity to study Islam in islamic countries like Saudi Arabia and EGypt When they return they start to imitate the habit of wearing Hijab and other extremist view of islam poisoning the larger population at large and start to emphasize the difference between Han and Uyghur because of religion and race. It is like cancer once you allow it to enter the cell it will propagate like wild fire. Traditional uyghur does not wear hijab or moslem garment

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Josh Luo said:

I totally agree with you that people are hypocrites by nature. However, after the 2nd World War, the society seems to have come to a general consensus that deliberate destructions of an ethnic, cultural, and religious groups should be prohibited, if not combated against. With regards to your point about assimilation, couldn't there be some sorts of financial incentives to encourage interracial marriage (such as the ones in Tibet, and I personally met with multiple Han-Tibetan couples when I visited Lhasa with former Chinese co-workers. My tour guide and local Tibetan staff told me that interethnic couples in Lhasa enjoy welfare ranging from free healthcare to housing subsidies.). For Xinjiang, since it is rich in oil, coal, gas, and wind, couldn't there be some revenue sharing, job trainings (schools, not camps please), and Chinese-language education subsidies (but not reeducation camps) given to Uighur communities, so the latter become stakeholders in China's economy? Somehow Tibet does a way better job in assimilations/melting pot than Xinjiang.

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voyager1 said:

Now i will you a warning, what follows below is part of my thinking on this issue, this took me about 1 hour to write, it is quite long but presents my very nuanced thinking and sometimes Orwellian doublethink on this matter. Note that this is a written from a westerner's point of view with not full knowledge of chinese history.


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This is a complex matter which needs in-depth discussion so i will say some of thoughts here.
There is a difference between genocide and cultural genocide, and actually i prefer saying the term extreme cultural assimilation. I am and always will be against as well as the rest of the world (i.hope so!) to genocide.

Regarding what is happening in Xinjiang i would say it is extreme cultural assimilation of Uighurs with forced reeducation. So normally this process would take a lot years like generations of people, you can see this happening in the US where the 2nd or even 3rd generation of immigrants truly become "Americans" (culturally).

Now on China the problem is that (i dont know a lot of chinese history so please excuse any mistake i may make) China didnt properly integrate the Uyghurs into the nation (i dont know the reason, maybe fearing revolt?). So when the terrorist attacks started to happen in China on the 2010s(and earlier?), a lot of Uyghurs were easy targets to be converted as they lived in poverty and didnt feel like they were chinese, different customs in culture, clothing, language, different music, and i assume different treatment(discrimination) from authorities and many other policies which i probably dont know.

Now you will tell me that different music and clothes and other things are small details and they dont matter but the truth is that little by little, combined with extreme poverty(main issue IMO), next to Afghanistan, and probably with some help by CIA all this combined and started radicalising the local population and then started the terroist attacks and general unrest on the region.

Now in my opinion, after the CCP realised the mistake they made (yes i mostly blame them for not properly integrating Uyghurs in the past) they panicked and responded with the ruthless method we are now witnessing on Xinjiang.

Now Xi himself probably feels pressured internally and externally to integrate them as fast as possible with the least problems so the security issue is resolved(avoid external terrorism aid from certain countries...) but the problem is that they are humans and not robots so this cultural genocide must be made ruthlessly without any western solutions( like wait for 2nd, 3rd generation).

The elites and leaders of the world know the reason but because CCP tripped itself.in its quest to become a global power by leaving hidden dangers(the other danger being Hong Kong) now they can find a morally right hill(rightly so, and actually this exposed a shortcoming/flaw of the chinese political system) to accuse China and with great effect if i can say so.


Now after all this, back to your question .

Objectively, due to the CCP mistakes and paranoia of not integrating Uighurs, yes cultural assimilation/genocide Uighurs is absolutely necessary for the rise of China as a global power now. No country with a potential pool of 12 million people receptive to terrorism influenced from Afghanistan and Syria is going to go anywhere. China would have their own mini-Afghanistan inside their own country, combine this with inevitable Indian and US support for terrorists and you can see this where this is going i think.

Now in regards to your 2nd question about if outside people should support Xi. Absolutely no. People should not support Xi or any of this stuff, now you may say western countries benefited from the same policies hundreds of years ago.and that would be true. But people are hypocrites by their nature. Western people(me included) will rightly say sorry that they benefitted from plundering the rest of the world but then they will brush it off that it was not them and not their decision which would be true as well.

So as you can see people want to feel good with themselves and will grasp at any reason, and with this happening on China i wouldnt expect any outside support for China. You should probably wait for China to become.a superpower to make people afraid and probably some other dozens of years, 50-60, to make people forget and say that Xinjiang happened in the past and it wasnt my decision although by then you would have benefitted as well (hypocrisy, its a circle first it was in the West and by that time in the future it will be in China)

Now i will say this in case anyone here is chinese and is reading this and feels strange while him and everyone else is supporting Xi. Xi from a westerner's perspective is totally wrong on the Xinjiang issue but from a chinese perspective i believe he is absolutely correct in doing so now because in the past CCP sat on the thumbs playing around and now China's rise as a global power depends on integrating the Uighurs in China as efficient as possible disregarding any human right concerns. So Xi faced the dilemma to either commit human abuses (not killing) to ensure that the country can truly rise or wait it out and ensure his country become a mini-Afghanistan, and it seems that Xi has decided the first.


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Man that was tiring, i will save this so i dont ever need to write this again. Nice intellectual exercise though!

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Josh Luo said:

Well I have more question than answers now. The Tibetans I interacted with told me that they insisted their Han Chinese colleagues and family members to respect the Dalai Lama as a the living God, but they are just as grateful toward "Grandpa Xi 习爷爷" for building roads, railroads, and increasing welfare spending in Tibet. So I can still sense that there's unresolved conflict over the Dalai Lama and Tibetan Government in Exile. However, these Tibetans are willing to accept the status quo as long as they can maintain their current prosperity. Since the unresolved conflict over the Dalai Lama could be managed, I wonder why similar religious conflict cannot be managed in Xinjiang. Is Wahhabism from Saudi Arabia and Egypt the only causes?

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Hendrik_2000 said:

Attitude does not change overnight the present young people is only 2 or 3 generation remove from Dalai reign and somehow still associate the institution of Dalai Lama with Tibetan identity. While he is still alive the older generation still venerated him and transmitted their value to their grand children. But when he died along with older generation which is almost certainty, attitude will change help by secularization of life in Tibet and raising prosperity and integration people will more and more identify as Chinese first and Tibetan second

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