Discussing Biden's Potential China Policy

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Deleted member 15887

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Xi proly thinks he hit the lottery with Trump. No other way for Xi to be so popular in China.

People my dad's age were quite pissed with the term limit removal. Now Xi is dandy
When do you think Xi intends to step down? I'm looking at 2032-33 as a probable date, since he seems to be planning up to 2035 for China's future; the 2035 date is often evoked alot. Serving until 2032-33 basically ensures his input, guidance, and beginning the implementation of the 16th Five Year Plan ending in 2035.
 

emblem21

Major
Registered Member
When do you think Xi intends to step down? I'm looking at 2032-33 as a probable date, since he seems to be planning up to 2035 for China's future; the 2035 date is often evoked alot. Serving until 2032-33 basically ensures his input, guidance, and beginning the implementation of the 16th Five Year Plan ending in 2035.
Well he is doing a good job so far and given that he still has plans in regards to China's long term future and he hasn't been making reckless decisions so far, Xi stepping down isn't all that likely right now, at least until they can get a clear picture as to how the world will look in a year. If the rest of the world cannot get there covid problems sorted, well he will be there to stay for the long term. Even if they get the covid sorted to some extent, he will still be around provided that he isn't reckless which from his performance so far, he is doing so much better then the rest of the world leaders right not it is not funny since almost every last one of them is failing to varying degrees and the Chinese people know it. As a reminder, with the covid exploding in Europe again and in the USA it is getting worse not better and in china the virus is more or less under control, well for the Chinese people (not the rest of the world because Xi doesn't have much to do with them), he may as well be the continuation of chairman Mao and Deng Xiao Ping since this virus cannot be dealt with in the short term no matter what the west says in regards to a vaccine, they simply cannot rush it like they are now.
 

Petrolicious88

Senior Member
Registered Member
Why do you keep on repeating this when Biden literally admitted he will remove the tariffs?

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Also, we KNOW what Biden is, he was VP for 8 years. It's very difficult to "teach Old Dogs new tricks" and Biden is a half-dead very elderly old dog. Saying he will miraculously turn anti-China just ignores his 8 years as VP and 47 year old political career.
Lol, because it is most likely true. The anti-China stance is coming not just from the White, but from the Pentagon, State Department, and members of both Congress and Senate. Trump was Xi’s “best friend” in the beginning too.

In addition, Republicans will likely control the Senate. Any pro China policies is not going to pass. Any pro-China cabinet officials will not get confirmed.

Biden is constrained by what he wants to do with China due to the politics of the current environment. Trump opened a set of doors that can’t easily be closed.
 

localizer

Colonel
Registered Member
When do you think Xi intends to step down? I'm looking at 2032-33 as a probable date, since he seems to be planning up to 2035 for China's future; the 2035 date is often evoked alot. Serving until 2032-33 basically ensures his input, guidance, and beginning the implementation of the 16th Five Year Plan ending in 2035.

Hard to predict anything beyond a month these days haha.

I want him to get rid of the heavy emphasis on socialism education and stuff. Waste of time.
 

crash8pilot

Junior Member
Registered Member
When do you think Xi intends to step down? I'm looking at 2032-33 as a probable date, since he seems to be planning up to 2035 for China's future; the 2035 date is often evoked alot. Serving until 2032-33 basically ensures his input, guidance, and beginning the implementation of the 16th Five Year Plan ending in 2035.
Doesn't matter when he steps down, he'll still be running things behind the scenes much like Mao and Deng did till their dying breath. It doesn't need to be a hands-on type of leadership within the CCP, he'll be steering the direction China goes. Quite frankly he's earned the privilege to do so, and that's very much why his term limits are waved - whoever succeeds Xi will have one big massive shadow to live up to.
 

solarz

Brigadier
Doesn't matter when he steps down, he'll still be running things behind the scenes much like Mao and Deng did till their dying breath. It doesn't need to be a hands-on type of leadership within the CCP, he'll be steering the direction China goes. Quite frankly he's earned the privilege to do so, and that's very much why his term limits are waved - whoever succeeds Xi will have one big massive shadow to live up to.

Yeah, because Jiang is running the show these days, right? :rolleyes:

The entire purpose of the removal of the term limits for the Presidency of China was to do away with those kinds of "shadow politics".
 

Phead128

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
The anti-China stance is coming not just from the White House,
White House will now be occupied by Joe Biden, not Donald Trump, who wants to remove tariffs on Chinese-made goods and end the trade war that hurts American consumers and importers. Joe Biden for 8 years as Vice President was passive on China, he is far from being a "China Hawk". He wants to avoid a Cold War 2.0 with China, despite his tough sounding rhetoric.

but from the Pentagon,
You do know Biden will appoint Flournoy as Secretary of Defense as replacement for Mark Esper. Flournoy is known to say US-China rivalry is "first and foremost in economics, trade, and technology" and increasingly in security sphere.[1] While she is a neocon hawk who promoted Libyan intervention, she respects China as a nuclear power to be respected, and is not a anti-China hawk maniac like Mark Esper, who suggested 50% of US military academy's educational curriculum should focus on China/PLA-threat.

State Department,

You do know Biden will appoint Susan Rice as Secretary of State, replacing the notoriously hawkish Mike Pompeo. Susan Rice was former UN Ambassador and former national security advisor to Obama. She is a well-known quantity and is NOT an anti-China hawk. She is a significant improvement compared to Mike Pompeo as SecState and while she recognizes the challenges of China, she isn't looking for a Cold War 2.0 like Pompeo was.

and members of both Congress and Senate.

The State Department controls US foreign policy, Congress and Senate have little influence on US foreign policy. Nobody cares what Tom Cotton, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz and Lindsey Graham have to say on foreign policy. Their symbolic and useless Xinjiang human rights bill and Hong Kong human rights democracy bill did virtually nothing and changed nothing.

Trump was Xi’s “best friend” in the beginning too.

You literally have a 12 year old understand of US-China relations.
In addition, Republicans will likely control the Senate. Any pro China policies is not going to pass.

You don't need US Senate to repeal the 10-25% Trade Tariffs on China, because they were an Executive order via Commerce Department.
You don't need US Senate to release Meng Wanzhou because they are Federal Charges that they can unilateral drop.
You don't need US Senate to end the Tech Embargo on Huawei because they were Executive orders by the President.
You don't need US Senate to allow ASML to continue exporting EUVL to SMIC, because they were Applied pressure via State Department.

China already has Most Favored Nation (MFN) status that Congress approved in 2000, which allowed China to enter WTO. China doesn't NEED anything from Congress anymore.

Any pro-China cabinet officials will not get confirmed.

Senate Majority leader Mitch McConnell already signed that Senate Republicans will consider "centrists" cabinet official picks, but will deny "radical progressives" cabinet picks. Almost all of Biden's picks are "centrists" on China, which means they want to avoid a Cold War 2.0 and are not "pro-China" as you suggested.

Biden is constrained by what he wants to do with China due to the politics of the current environment.

That's why Biden's top pick for Treasury Secretary is Lael Brainard, the architect of China's entry into WTO, the pro-NAFTA and free trade deals, and the women who is against labelling China as currency manipulator?

You need to distinguish between "Rhetoric" for domestic purposes and "substanative policy." Biden's rhetoric will be strong and tough on China, but Biden's substanative policy (shaped by his cabinet picks) will be significantly less hawkish than Mnuchin/Lighthizer on China.

Trump opened a set of doors that can’t easily be closed.

Well Trump just lost the election, give Biden 6-12 mons, and memory of Trump will have faded by then. Who is going to remember "enforcement mechanism", "snap-back tariff provisions", and "systematic structural reform of Chinese economy" in late 2021? Nobody, virtually nobody. Biden won't demand the same things Lighizer demanded, Biden will accept some recycled promises on Chinese opening up financial firm access, foreign ownership in joint ventures, and better IP protection, then declare victory, and move on.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General

I was about to post this. Could be significant, since the issue that Esper fell out with Trump over was the use of the US military for domestic suppression of protests.

The original falling out was in June, so why fire him now? When he would be out of a job in 3 months anyways?

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Why did Trump fall out with his defence secretary?
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over the White House's attitude to the military during protests over racial injustice earlier this year.
As protests rocked the US following the death of black man George Floyd at the hands of police in Minneapolis, Minnesota, in May, Mr Trump threatened to use troops to suppress unrest.
In June, Mr Esper, a former army officer, said the use of active-duty forces was unnecessary, in remarks that were known to have displeased the White House.

Also worth noting that videos like this are being published and widely shared to discredit the election results.


At a minimum it looks like Trump is keeping all his options open, and may be actively testing the waters and laying the groundwork for his next move.
 

caudaceus

Senior Member
Registered Member
I was about to post this. Could be significant, since the issue that Esper fell out with Trump over was the use of the US military for domestic suppression of protests.

The original falling out was in June, so why fire him now? When he would be out of a job in 3 months anyways?

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Also worth noting that videos like this are being published and widely shared to discredit the election results.


At a minimum it looks like Trump is keeping all his options open, and may be actively testing the waters and laying the groundwork for his next move.
Read some tweets that fears Trump will do some military activities against Iran as his grand finale.
 

Tyler

Captain
Registered Member
My opinion is that Biden will definitely ratchet up the pressure on the human rights front (Hong Kong, Xinjiang, etc.) but he will be practical on the economic front. At a minimum we won’t be seeing ridiculous stuff like WeChat/Tiktok ban anymore. I still think that he’ll keep the sanctions on Huawei since Democrats are behind that too.
Tiktok still there not sold or banned, just as predicted.
 
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