Discussing Biden's Potential China Policy

hullopilllw said:

Seems like different policymakers in US are now having their own separate strategy to manage China, from short term tactics aiming to curb China's economic and tech growth or long term aim of balkanising China.

Be it the Treasury, WH, Senate or the DoD.

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@hullopilllw Yup we are on the initial stage of Cold War 2 with the Collective West launching or preparing a full spectrum attack. The Ukraine War may have hasten the plan BUT can the Collective West bare the pain? SK planning to join AUKUS or QUAD is an emotional decision that may help the Chinese. Cause in the long run they can't stomach the Japanese and they will wreck that alliance in the future.

My take on the current geopolitical event, as the fence is being build around China and Russia, the global south will take a neutral stance UNTIL China had the wherewithal to challenge the Collective west. And it's a good timing to invest those dollar earnings ASAP in the Eurasia region and Iran. Draw down those investment abroad ( US & EU) and develop new markets and De-financialization. Cut off one of the pillars of Western domination, The Russian had done it and it works, now the Chinese are preparing the same thing leveraging its huge manufacture capability by making its DUAL Circulation strategy works.

ansy1968 said:

@hullopilllw Yup we are on the initial stage of Cold War 2 with the Collective West launching or preparing a full spectrum attack. The Ukraine War may have hasten the plan BUT can the Collective West bare the pain? SK planning to join AUKUS or QUAD is an emotional decision that may help the Chinese. Cause in the long run they can't stomach the Japanese and they will wreck that alliance in the future.

My take on the current geopolitical event, as the fence is being build around China and Russia, the global south will take a neutral stance UNTIL China had the wherewithal to challenge the Collective west. And it's a good timing to invest those dollar earnings ASAP in the Eurasia region and Iran. Draw down those investment abroad ( US & EU) and develop new markets and De-financialization. Cut off one of the pillars of Western domination, The Russian had done it and it works, now the Chinese are preparing the same thing leveraging its huge manufacture capability by making its DUAL Circulation strategy works.

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The Global South has more spine and sovereignty which are more worthy respect, compared to those other countries who have far more wealth and power but unable to resist and bent over to US, pathetic. What's the point of all those wealth if you'll crumble at the first sign of external pressure or internal dissent.

Anyways, I agree with on your take, and I wanna add that their "alliance" might look "strong" now, but will it stand through the test of time? During Obama's time, back in 2012 the pivot to Asia plan is looking like its becoming very fruitful, with China seemingly demonized and cornered in ASEAN because of the SCS issue, but look at what happen now, things have cooldown and every country reverted back to business as usual, trading with each other and with relationships reaching new heights.

The ball is on the court for US to keep this momentum but for how long? China will continue to grow with no way to completely stop it unless they decide to go to war but with the Russia-Ukraine war we can see they have no guts confront them to a direct war, they also going to have to deal with inflation, shortages and other domestic issues for this turbulent decade, which would put their "issue" with China in the backburner or weaken their focus.

hullopilllw said:

Seems like different policymakers in US are now having their own separate strategy to manage China, from short term tactics aiming to curb China's economic and tech growth or long term aim of balkanising China.

Be it the Treasury, WH, Senate or the DoD.

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Indeed.

Katherine Tai is like the Twitter Indian CEO, an ethnic token front-person, designed to take the hits/appear diverse, whereas the REAL power lies in the white executive/board including Biden/Dorsey(now Elon Musk) who make the REAL decisions.


Katherine Tai opposes lifting tariffs that weakens negotiations, but since Biden wants to win re-election by reducing inflation and increase economic growth, Biden will override Katherine Tai and conveniently blame Trump for failure. You already see Republican Senate is moving to weaken Tariffs now that Trump is gone and Corporate America lobbyist are pushing their Republicans lapdogs to weaken Tariffs.

Americans have no real long-term strategy against China, so long as China doesn't hit Hawaii or Guam or SK/Japan to unify the Americans, China can largely get away with almost anything.

The dependence keep growing how can you make China your enemy when you depend so much for consumer good Sofar trade war is an utter failure

Dependence on China shrinks the US economy in Q1​

There is no historic precedent for a big economy living on imports from its declared strategic rival
By

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APRIL 28, 2022
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A leap in America’s trade deficit during the first quarter pushed US GDP down at a 1.4% annual rate, the Commerce Department reported April 28. The consensus forecast called for 1% growth. A massive increase in US imports knocked 3.2% off annualized GDP, reflecting America’s growing dependence on China.
There is no historic precedent for a big economy living on imports from its declared strategic rival. America’s trade deficit in goods soared to $125 billion in March, or a record $1.5 trillion annual rate. America buys goods from the rest of the world and sells paper in return. As of yearend 2021 the US net foreign investment position stood at negative $18 trillion, roughly equal to its cumulative trade deficit over the past thirty years.

"There is no historic precedent for a big economy living on imports from its declared strategic rival"

Actually there is. Nazi Germany. Dependent on raw resources from the Soviets. Or if you want an example closer to the US, their own civil war, where the South was mostly agricultural and highly dependent on industry from the North. We know how both of those turned out.

If they had a barely sane leadership they would just acquiesce to the current situation. Once the USD lost its reserve currency status, there would be a deep economic depression in the US, but it would also make industry come back as salaries would come down. And eventually things would self regulate. No one would be going to bother to invade the US anyway. Instead of being the sole world superpower, they would be just one of a couple of powers and certainly a regional power in North America and probably their whole continent. Most of Europe lost its colonial possessions. Do you think the average European is worse off now that when they had their empires? The truth is all empires are extractive. Not just to the colonies but to their own citizens. Being forced to scale down in scope means they have to manage what they still have better and give citizens decent conditions.

Hendrik_2000 said:

The dependence keep growing how can you make China your enemy when you depend so much for consumer good Sofar trade war is an utter failure

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Dependence on China shrinks the US economy in Q1​

There is no historic precedent for a big economy living on imports from its declared strategic rival
By

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

APRIL 28, 2022
Print

A leap in America’s trade deficit during the first quarter pushed US GDP down at a 1.4% annual rate, the Commerce Department reported April 28. The consensus forecast called for 1% growth. A massive increase in US imports knocked 3.2% off annualized GDP, reflecting America’s growing dependence on China.
There is no historic precedent for a big economy living on imports from its declared strategic rival. America’s trade deficit in goods soared to $125 billion in March, or a record $1.5 trillion annual rate. America buys goods from the rest of the world and sells paper in return. As of yearend 2021 the US net foreign investment position stood at negative $18 trillion, roughly equal to its cumulative trade deficit over the past thirty years.

Click to expand...

Pretty interesting talk with Kishore Mahbubani. He wrote a book about China/India/Asean being the center of wealth for most of written history except the past 200 years and that it is now reverting back to historical norms. He mentions in the talk that the US is a plutocracy and it's political leaders unable or unwilling to improve the livelihood of its citizens. He gave an example how the Tarrifs on China did not work and how removing tariffs on Chinese good would have a substantial effect on inflation in the US. However because of political reason to deflect US problems on China, the tariffs still exist.

gelgoog said:

"There is no historic precedent for a big economy living on imports from its declared strategic rival"

Actually there is. Nazi Germany. Dependent on raw resources from the Soviets. Or if you want an example closer to the US, their own civil war, where the South was mostly agricultural and highly dependent on industry from the North. We know how both of those turned out.

If they had a barely sane leadership they would just acquiesce to the current situation. Once the USD lost its reserve currency status, there would be a deep economic depression in the US, but it would also make industry come back as salaries would come down. And eventually things would self regulate. No one would be going to bother to invade the US anyway. Instead of being the sole world superpower, they would be just one of a couple of powers and certainly a regional power in North America and probably their whole continent. Most of Europe lost its colonial possessions. Do you think the average European is worse off now that when they had their empires? The truth is all empires are extractive. Not just to the colonies but to their own citizens. Being forced to scale down in scope means they have to manage what they still have better and give citizens decent conditions.

Click to expand...

The European empires extracted primary products from their colonies and sent them manufactures in return. Most of US exports to China are primary products (e.g. LNG, coal, foodstuffs, etc. - airliners are an exception) and most of US imports from China are manufactures.

What is unprecedented is outsourcing. They confuse American products they have Chinese make for them as Chinese products. The whole trade deficit is based on that lie. The profits from those products don't go back to China when sold to consumers. They go to the US corporation that owns them. So where's the imbalance in China's favor? The evil that the US wants to have happen is they want to exploit cheap labor in China to make those products but then force the Chinese to buy them at normal prices where the profits go to the US. What Apple pays for Chinese labor is around $10 for an iPhone that cost over a $1000. The US government looks at the price to consumers on what they base the trade deficit. So you're looking at least a 99% lie on what the trade deficit on iPhones from China they spin.

Maikeru said:

The European empires extracted primary products from their colonies and sent them manufactures in return. Most of US exports to China are primary products (e.g. LNG, coal, foodstuffs, etc. - airliners are an exception) and most of US imports from China are manufactures.

Click to expand...

The US has gone beyond that one step further with IP law. They extract manufactures and send them designs and other kinds of IP. It is a big mistake to look at the US/China trade balance in terms of net exports and ignore the flow of things like IP which is counted under "services" typically. Also, like @AssassinsMace said you can't take the export volume seriously because of factors like that i.e. who actually gets the revenues from the supposed value added.

gelgoog said:

The US has gone beyond that one step further with IP law. They extract manufactures and send them designs and other kinds of IP. It is a big mistake to look at the US/China trade balance in terms of net exports and ignore the flow of things like IP which is counted under "services" typically. Also, like @AssassinsMace said you can't take the export volume seriously because of factors like that i.e. who actually gets the revenues from the supposed value added.

Click to expand...

Yeah, exactly. Agree completely.

That is why I do not follow all that too closely.

Those big corporations got their own problems like everyone else. No matter what happens, collectively those big corporations will still make all the money.

The US government set up the world this way, with production and financial flows, to benefit US interests, which are the US corporation.

Now the US government want to change the rules or whatever.

Basically, IMHO, the US government find themselves between a rock and a hard place.

Seems like the US government does not understand the world they created.

Note that it is only the US government who wants to change everything. Those people in their bubble with their ideology. This is going down the same road as Vietnam and Afghanistan.