Discussing Biden's Potential China Policy

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BrightFuture

New Member
Registered Member
LOL. There's so much more for the US to do.
1. Taiwan Card
The US can recognize Taiwan or play footsie. No matter what happens, the US wins because China's GDP will drop more than the US's GDP, the US homeland won't have any war damage and then the US will have more of a reason for more sanctions.

2. Japan Card
The US can start a war over the Senkakus, and the US will win by default since China exports more to Japan, has a smaller economy and is more dependent on Japan as a source of technology.

3. Destabilization card
Guinea and HOng Kong are just the starts. Hong Kong is when the NED has a budget of $100 million. Just imagine how much chaos there will be when the NED has a budget of $1 billion. Plus, China will have to spend so much money on domestic security and that will detract from R&D, infrastructure, healthcare, education and the military.

4. Tariff/Secondary Tariff Card
The US can simply expand tariffs to Chinese parts used in 3rd countries or increase tariffs astronomically such that the 3% of Chinese GDP that is net exports to the United States goes to 0.

5. FDI/Portfolio Investment card
THe US can sabotage China's technology acquisition and productivity drive by banning US companies from investing in China, both on a portfolio basis and on a foreign direct investment basis.

6. IEEPA/Secondary Tariffs/Sovereign Immunity Card
The US can codify the bans on trade/investment both with an IEEPA order and by suing China in US courts with a default order. Better yet, this forces every country in the world to dump their business with China unless they want to be kicked out of SWIFT. One shot wonder at banning China's trade with the rest of the world.

7. Immigration Card
The US can simply increase the 1965 INA limits including by brain-draining *ALL* of China which will substantially hurt China's ability to develop the technology. The political ramifications wouldn't even matter if there are enough 3rd country immigrants that they can outvote the native-born residents.

8. SWIFT Card
The United States will simply ban any Chinese ban from having a correspondent account that at all has any nexus to the FRBNY, that will isolate China from the rest of the world.

9. Capital markets card
Ban all Chinese IPOs and bond offerings in the United States

10. Chip card
Have fun at 90nm while the rest of the world races ahead with High-NA EUVL and Machine Learning EDA. China will be behind forever

11. Aerospace card
Have fun having all your planes break down and spending exorbitant amounts of money on a dangerous plane and longer layovers

12. Scientific Instrumentation Card
All of Chinese science is dependent on American instrumentation. Cut that off and Chinese science grinds to a halt or becomes unusable since Chinese instrumentation tolerance isn't as good as American instrumentation tolerance. By the time CHina makes the instrumentation, the rest of the world will be light years ahead of Chinese science.

13. Machine Tool Card
The US will jsut ban all exports of industrial automation/machine tools/robotics to China with a 0% de minimis, China will be unable to manufacture anything with metal or plastic

14. Software/OS/App card
The US will ban all things Windows, Android and iOS going to China, making decades of Chinese software development useless, forcing CHina to rewrite *everything* and substantially limiting CHina's ability to export any type of software and reducing efficiency substantially.

15. Allies Card
The US can get its allies/slaves to do the same thing as what the US is doing with the CIA's influence network and the US' coercive capabilities.

China is going to be spending so much of (limited) money on recreating the wheel and dealing with inefficiencies that they will never catch up while US economic reforms and domestic investment cause the US to race ahead of China and China will never catch up; esp. given that the US has no crises ahead but China has a demographic, environmental, financial and regional security crisis to deal with. The Australia SSBN is just a start. Biden is still a dove; Trump was clueless on the NSC process but the next GOP president will manage to shove everything through the NSC process so smoothly that CHina's GDP will drop so quickly and the US will soar and the "Competition" will be shown to be a footnote as the US keeps rocketing upward. Not to mention China's import dependency for natural resources like iron ore, food, energy, water, etc.
You really live in the land of unicorns and rainbows, don't you? So, why do you think the US hasn't already done those things, genius? They would have to pay a heavy price, and it wouldn't go well. Also, China is well prepared, this is not your little fantasy world.

It's funny, the US is so powerful and smart in your little bird brain, yet it couldn't defeat China when it was at its weakest, nor Vietnam, nor Afghanistan, nor Cuba, do I continue? If you are sleepy, you should go to sleep, seems like the lack of rest is severely affecting your brain oxygen inflow.
 
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steel21

Junior Member
Registered Member
LOL. There's so much more for the US to do.
1. Taiwan Card
The US can recognize Taiwan or play footsie. No matter what happens, the US wins because China's GDP will drop more than the US's GDP, the US homeland won't have any war damage and then the US will have more of a reason for more sanctions.

2. Japan Card
The US can start a war over the Senkakus, and the US will win by default since China exports more to Japan, has a smaller economy and is more dependent on Japan as a source of technology.

3. Destabilization card
Guinea and HOng Kong are just the starts. Hong Kong is when the NED has a budget of $100 million. Just imagine how much chaos there will be when the NED has a budget of $1 billion. Plus, China will have to spend so much money on domestic security and that will detract from R&D, infrastructure, healthcare, education and the military.

4. Tariff/Secondary Tariff Card
The US can simply expand tariffs to Chinese parts used in 3rd countries or increase tariffs astronomically such that the 3% of Chinese GDP that is net exports to the United States goes to 0.

5. FDI/Portfolio Investment card
THe US can sabotage China's technology acquisition and productivity drive by banning US companies from investing in China, both on a portfolio basis and on a foreign direct investment basis.

6. IEEPA/Secondary Tariffs/Sovereign Immunity Card
The US can codify the bans on trade/investment both with an IEEPA order and by suing China in US courts with a default order. Better yet, this forces every country in the world to dump their business with China unless they want to be kicked out of SWIFT. One shot wonder at banning China's trade with the rest of the world.

7. Immigration Card
The US can simply increase the 1965 INA limits including by brain-draining *ALL* of China which will substantially hurt China's ability to develop the technology. The political ramifications wouldn't even matter if there are enough 3rd country immigrants that they can outvote the native-born residents.

8. SWIFT Card
The United States will simply ban any Chinese ban from having a correspondent account that at all has any nexus to the FRBNY, that will isolate China from the rest of the world.

9. Capital markets card
Ban all Chinese IPOs and bond offerings in the United States

10. Chip card
Have fun at 90nm while the rest of the world races ahead with High-NA EUVL and Machine Learning EDA. China will be behind forever

11. Aerospace card
Have fun having all your planes break down and spending exorbitant amounts of money on a dangerous plane and longer layovers

12. Scientific Instrumentation Card
All of Chinese science is dependent on American instrumentation. Cut that off and Chinese science grinds to a halt or becomes unusable since Chinese instrumentation tolerance isn't as good as American instrumentation tolerance. By the time CHina makes the instrumentation, the rest of the world will be light years ahead of Chinese science.

13. Machine Tool Card
The US will jsut ban all exports of industrial automation/machine tools/robotics to China with a 0% de minimis, China will be unable to manufacture anything with metal or plastic

14. Software/OS/App card
The US will ban all things Windows, Android and iOS going to China, making decades of Chinese software development useless, forcing CHina to rewrite *everything* and substantially limiting CHina's ability to export any type of software and reducing efficiency substantially.

15. Allies Card
The US can get its allies/slaves to do the same thing as what the US is doing with the CIA's influence network and the US' coercive capabilities.

China is going to be spending so much of (limited) money on recreating the wheel and dealing with inefficiencies that they will never catch up while US economic reforms and domestic investment cause the US to race ahead of China and China will never catch up; esp. given that the US has no crises ahead but China has a demographic, environmental, financial and regional security crisis to deal with. The Australia SSBN is just a start. Biden is still a dove; Trump was clueless on the NSC process but the next GOP president will manage to shove everything through the NSC process so smoothly that CHina's GDP will drop so quickly and the US will soar and the "Competition" will be shown to be a footnote as the US keeps rocketing upward. Not to mention China's import dependency for natural resources like iron ore, food, energy, water, etc.
I can't be bother to address your crazy list one by one.

I would simply ask you to list the cards that China holds and see how they line up against the US. Looking at only your perceived advantages without adjusting for adversary leverage and counters is exactly how you lose wars.

Most of the items you list are all imaginary. For example, if there was a real war, there will be a huge anti-Asian bent in this country as thousands come back in body bags. Who da fuck is crazy enough to emigrate to the US then? I might not get into top tier US PhD program but at least I'm not getting randomly shot or investigated/ostracized.

Areospace, Machine Tool, OS, are all just the same thing. Listing the shit over and over, you might need to reign in your imagination a bit. Heck, you might even list chicken feet and crawlfish in to the pile as we export a shit ton of those as well.

Essentially, everything you listed can be sum up as destabilization. The question you must ask is who will fare better and emerge faster from destabilization? US or China.
 
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bettydice

New Member
Registered Member
You really live in the land of unicorns and rainbows, don't you? So, why do you think the US hasn't already done those things, genius? They would have to pay a heavy price, and it wouldn't go well. Also, China is well prepared, this is not your little fantasy world.

It's funny, the US is so powerful and smart in your little bird brain, yet it couldn't defeat China when it was at its weakest, nor Vietnam, nor Afghanistan, nor Cuba, do I continue? If you are sleepy, you should go to sleep, seems like the lack of rest is severely affecting your brain oxygen inflow.
Something hasn't been done yet doesn't mean it won't happen. Everything is they haven't already done it before they actually do it. What has already happened is the US deployed THAAD in S. Korea, slapped a bunch of sanctions on China, created the Quad, and then now forming US-UK-Australia arms pact. So don't be complacent. If China's inaction continues, the US and its minions (Taiwan, Australia, Japan, Canada, UK, S. Korea etc) will do those things step by step.

I'm sure they're willing to pay any price to destroy China. The price doesn't matter as long as you win the war and get rid of your enemy. Once your enemy is gone, it's all yours and you can recover. Paying a hefty price and be the sole ruler is better than not paying any price and have your enemy as a risk. That's how wars work and why humans start wars. You need to be willing to pay whatever price to dominate to survive in this 'either eat them or get eaten' jungle.

Taiwan, S.Korea, Australia are already deploying missiles, submarines and submarine-launched missiles to target China. The US has been actively arming its minions around China and China has border conflicts with India as well. China doesn't have much time left. Taiwan and S.Korea need to be sorted out for a first step at least within 1-2 years. If China wastes more time, even those small countries around China will soon be impregnable and will be aiming right at centers of China.
 

steel21

Junior Member
Registered Member
Taiwan, S.Korea, Australia are already deploying missiles, submarines and submarine-launched missiles to target China. The US has been actively arming its minions around China and China has border conflicts with India as well. China doesn't have much time left. Taiwan and S.Korea need to be sorted out for a first step at least within 1-2 years. If China wastes more time, even those small countries around China will soon be impregnable and will be aiming right at centers of China.

Let me pretend to be Xi for a second....

1. I would not go after ROK and ROC first. Most of these systems are of no real consequence for peer level fight between US and China. By that I mean shit that could go up to the use of tactical nukes. THAAD and SSNs are nice toys to brandish, but they do dick squat in a all out fight. US cannot assume that China will fight according to established doctrine and not resort to some ball to the wall shit as Asians do. Forget DF-41, as long as China has a nuclear device left, there is no telling how they will deliver that shit. Are you going to sort through every vessel at sea?

2. The real soft underbelly of the US right now is its economy. Tank the economy and all these toys becomes cost centers overnight. If there was a crisis worse than 2008, most people would be like "FUCK TAIWAN". Some may argue that US is looking for a Pearl Harbor moment, using exigent external threat to pull everyone together. But it's 2021 and not 1941. There is no ramp up for war production, and everyone is already at everyone's throats. A destructive conflict might have the opposite effect of tanking the US establishment and bringing about a ruinous populous leadership, potentially fragmenting the union.

3. With ROC, I start with defined economic sanctions. Detailing phased implementation and impact over a period of a year or more. I would then sequence that with military actions in the form of overflights. This way, there are on ramps and off ramps. But along the way, it give Taiwanese some time to feel the pain.

4. These sanction alone might trigger collapse of NYSE, and bring about sever economic shock to the US system.

5. If after a year, with sanction in place, US under going a 50%+ correction in equity markets, and overflight on a frequent basis, the shit has not been toned down, then its time to try to plan for the take over.

There is no reason to go after ROK or even ROC, because at the end of the day, you still have to live with them as neighbors. You prep war through peace, and you plan for peace before you go to war.
 
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FairAndUnbiased

Junior Member
Registered Member
Something hasn't been done yet doesn't mean it won't happen. Everything is they haven't already done it before they actually do it. What has already happened is the US deployed THAAD in S. Korea, slapped a bunch of sanctions on China, created the Quad, and then now forming US-UK-Australia arms pact. So don't be complacent. If China's inaction continues, the US and its minions (Taiwan, Australia, Japan, Canada, UK, S. Korea etc) will do those things step by step.

I'm sure they're willing to pay any price to destroy China. The price doesn't matter as long as you win the war and get rid of your enemy. Once your enemy is gone, it's all yours and you can recover. Paying a hefty price and be the sole ruler is better than not paying any price and have your enemy as a risk. That's how wars work and why humans start wars. You need to be willing to pay whatever price to dominate to survive in this 'either eat them or get eaten' jungle.

Taiwan, S.Korea, Australia are already deploying missiles, submarines and submarine-launched missiles to target China. The US has been actively arming its minions around China and China has border conflicts with India as well. China doesn't have much time left. Taiwan and S.Korea need to be sorted out for a first step at least within 1-2 years. If China wastes more time, even those small countries around China will soon be impregnable and will be aiming right at centers of China.
Not really. Confining this discussion to SK/TW/AUS:

For South Korea the minute they go on the offensive their existence will be in jeopardy. South Korea doing anything triggers the Sino-Korean Mutual Defense Treaty and means that the conflict will no longer be contained to military on military. North Korea is chomping at the bit to get to them and KPA with PLAAF and PLAN support is a force to be reckoned with.

Australia is the same. What is the difference with 8 more SSNs for them vs 8 more for the US except that they will have worse training and maintenance? They can't build or maintain it themselves so it just clogs up US capability. And if they strike, they open themselves up to a far more devastating counterattack.
 
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horse

Senior Member
Registered Member
Something hasn't been done yet doesn't mean it won't happen. Everything is they haven't already done it before they actually do it. What has already happened is the US deployed THAAD in S. Korea, slapped a bunch of sanctions on China, created the Quad, and then now forming US-UK-Australia arms pact. So don't be complacent. If China's inaction continues, the US and its minions (Taiwan, Australia, Japan, Canada, UK, S. Korea etc) will do those things step by step.

I'm sure they're willing to pay any price to destroy China. The price doesn't matter as long as you win the war and get rid of your enemy. Once your enemy is gone, it's all yours and you can recover. Paying a hefty price and be the sole ruler is better than not paying any price and have your enemy as a risk. That's how wars work and why humans start wars. You need to be willing to pay whatever price to dominate to survive in this 'either eat them or get eaten' jungle.

Taiwan, S.Korea, Australia are already deploying missiles, submarines and submarine-launched missiles to target China. The US has been actively arming its minions around China and China has border conflicts with India as well. China doesn't have much time left. Taiwan and S.Korea need to be sorted out for a first step at least within 1-2 years. If China wastes more time, even those small countries around China will soon be impregnable and will be aiming right at centers of China.

Buddy, you are just pushing propaganda.

I take it that you're an Asian. Why are you pushing US propaganda?
 

Overbom

Junior Member
Registered Member
Taiwan, S.Korea, Australia are already deploying missiles, submarines and submarine-launched missiles to target China.
Yawn

The US has been actively arming its minions around China and China has border conflicts with India as well. China doesn't have much time left.
Is this the infamous "concern trolling"?
Yes any time now China will lose.. Yawn

Recently a lot of people seem to worry about China. This can only mean that it must be doing something right for those people to be complaining all day about it :p
 

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