Thought for the day
Biden and Obama before him have both sought Asian alliances, 'the Quad' and TPP respectively, as the vehicle to contain China. The TPP was still born because Trump hated all things Obama and pulled out before signing, 4 years later the protectionist political climate in the US just won't allow them to even countenance thinking about re-joining, furthermore, the ASEAN sponsored RCEP makes the whole TPP concept as a containment vehicle moot.
The Quad is fractured before it even got off the ground.
India which is supposed to add the human heft to counterbalance China is in dis-array the economy tanked last year and looks like it will do so again this year, Modi's farming reforms may well cause even more instability than covid and the dreams of eating China's lunch by grabbing FDI destined there is in tatters. If things continue on the present downward trajectory It could take a decade for India to recover.
Jury is out on how long Rupert Murdoch can prop up Morrison as Chinese money leaves and the shutters go up on imports from Australia, how long before ordinary Aussies start to worry about their pocketbooks and wonder whether this is the right direction to head. Cancelling BRI contracts will only exacerbate the money situation and turning Darwin into an armed American camp instead of a commercial port will only benefit the local bars and brothel owners. Like the H&M situation, I think Australia is set to become the poster boy for what happens when you bite the hand that's feeding you. Diplomatic spats with India causes further cracks in the Quad.
As for Japan, as the largest holder of US debt now, the BoJ must be concerned with Biden's money presses doing over time, exchanging t-bills by buying weapons will only go so far and if China continues to decline to participate in the US Treasury debt auctions the pressure will be on Japan to step up and take the slack. The move to de-dollarization could mean its left holding increasingly worthless US debt especially if China declines to accept dollar payments from Japan.
With the Indo-Pacific (Asia) not fertile ground to plough where's Biden State Department going to go next? Cozy up to Europe? Scaring eastern Europe using the Russian spectre won't really work with China! Try to leverage Latin America with more regime change? Hold its nose trying to play nice with 'shit hole' countries in Africa?
As in a game of Go, the game can reverse quite quickly with one wrong move!