Skywatcher
Captain
CEOs of Fortune 500 companies usually have much better self control.
Not necessarily. China has not historically claimed the entire seas, just the rights to extract resources from it. 20 years ago, China's biggest concern was it would run out of oil, while this is still a concern, its not issue #1 because of the hard pivot towards electrification. TBH, it is not likely hydrocarbons will ever be extensively developed in the SCS when there are other cheaper sources of oil, with less risk (I'm thinking of navies and hurricanes wreaking havoc on offshore development). This reduces the economic value of SCS.
The tactical value of the SCS and the artificial islands were the idea that they would be in lieu of aircraft carriers and cheaper. To be honest, china's CV plans have expanded significantly since 10 years ago when the first plans were made to create larger islands on the reefs. In a real war, they aren't likely to be the "unsinkable" aircraft carriers that they were originally thought out. China will likely be creating a CV fleet comparable to the US over the next few decades, and while the islands do possess value, their relative importance in the overall PLAN strategy decreases significantly.
I wouldn't be surprised if certain islands become demilitarized and essentially abandoned once china's long range bombers are fully operational and China has around 8-10 CVs. It is entirely possible that China may co-lease or do joint ownership with some SCS nations once PLAN is strong enough that the biggest islands become less and less important.
As china's strength grows, the value of the SCS islands becomes less and less until its something that could be traded away relatively easily. Remember, this is not China's Hawaii, and although it might not be traded away this decade, I highly doubt this will remain a thing by 2050. I assume by then even the fishing boat wars would have subsided, as more fish is farmed.
Too late for that, the only terms US elites and their big tech companies can negotiate is how much remaining chinese and world market share they can still have once China's chip and tech companies start rolling out their own chips in a year's time.
Maybe they should've done more to rein in, even kill, the cold warriors and old china racists like navarro and potting.
One must wonder when their hatred is eventually going to choke them. They have been continuing there state driven desire to hate China, not out of any true desire for human rights (considering the amount of violation recent regarding the surgeries don’t of innocent women who are seeking asylum from the nations that the USA has helped destroyed) but because China is able to unite in a manner that the USA cannot fathom at all. I wonder when all this stupidity is going to eventually blow up in there faces given that none of the real issues are truly addressed by either candidate except print more money.one must wonder what the value to money is going to be in the USA when the shelves run dry and when other nations (not just China) finally decided that they want some more tangible then dollars
We need to be ready for November surprise - from an article in Guancha that I've machine translated (with a little editing).
Huang Jing is a political scientist that have worked in Harvard, Stanford , Singapore and now in Beijing.
Source:
Being wary of division and fanatical America will give the world a "November Surprise"
So far, the "October Surprise", which has been heated up by the US election, has not happened. Trump suddenly infected SARS-CoV-2 in early October, and although he was magically "quickly cured", his election situation showed an irreversible trend according to the survey of major evaluation agencies in the United States, and his government was actually in a state of semi-paralysis. As a result, it is less likely that the Trump administration will be surprised before the November 3rd election.
However, as far as this US election is concerned, the split of voters is unprecedented, and the two sides are almost at odds; Moreover, voters on both sides are highly emotional and ideological. Because of these two unprecedented characteristics, some former politicians and opinion leaders in the United States think that this is the most dangerous general election in the United States since the Civil War. After the election, there is a great possibility of "November Surprise".
There is a huge split in national identity
The great split in American voters' national identity is the fundamental reason for the antagonism between the two sides. Evangelical white voters are the main supporters of Trump. They consider themselves the true heirs and defenders of the United States of America. In their view, the United States is a country created by white immigrants represented by "may flower" immigrants, supported by Puritan values, and calling for personal freedom after the War of Independence. In their ideas, the essence of public power is evil. Therefore, the fundamental purpose of the so-called "democratic system" is to supervise and control the scope and functions of the public power-the government.
As their founding motto says: In God and democracy we trust. They are staunch defenders of guns and oppose abortion, homosexuality, multiculturalism and pluralistic values. In their philosophy, the prerequisite for the existence of "American melting pot" is that immigrants from all over the world must accept the values and lifestyle of Mayflower. Only in this way can you become an American.
In the minds of these voters, the indispensable symbol ceremony of state power is when the President of the United States takes office, touching the Bible and chanting "God bless America". Trump's right wing is conservative and resolutely opposed to "political correctness", which has become their standard-bearer and hope for defending "our America" and won their fanatical support like religious belief.
Biden's supporters firmly believe that pluralism and tolerance are the foundation of the United States. Multiculturalism and ethnic groups are not only the reality of American society, but also the necessary conditions for the continuous development and growth of America. The inclusion, acceptance and equal rights of diverse cultures and ethnic groups in the United States are the necessary guarantee for the melting pot of the United States and the source of the soft power of the United States.
Therefore, Biden's supporters believe that American public power must provide institutional guarantee for defending multiculturalism, opposing racial discrimination and ensuring citizens' equal rights. The U.S. government should not only exercise the absolute power to defend sovereignty and territorial integrity and protect people's lives and property on behalf of the country, but also actively and extensively intervene in various social and economic affairs to ensure that "Americans" from all over the world can maintain their cultural heritage in accordance with the U.S. Constitution and enjoy equal rights of citizens.
The black life matter (BLM) movement sweeping across the United States not only opposes racial discrimination, but also highlights "Americanism" that is pluralistic, inclusive and equal. This group of voters is as enthusiastic as those who support Trump. In their view, if Trump continues to be in office for the next four years, the United States will face huge crisis that could destroy it.
Defending "our America" is fanatical
Obviously, Trump's campaign team is fully aware of the situation in two opposing of voters groups, and actively uses this division for personal gain. Since the beginning of the campaign, Trump's campaign team has constantly encouraged and supported various "political impulses" of white voters with evangelicals as the main body. Trump basically expressed support for people opposing wearing of masks, against social isolation and carried out armed occupation of public power places and those in armed conflict with the BLM movement.
In the first debate with Biden, when the host repeatedly asked Trump whether he opposed "white supremacy", Trump not only avoided answering, but said: "Proud boys, stand by!" As we all know, "Proud Boys" is a far-right political organization. They not only advocate that whites should be the masters of the United States, but also defend the so-called "our America" by force.
As the president of the United States, Trump not only did not try to overcome the national identity split that touched the foundation of the United States, but used this split to show off. As James Mathis, the former defense secretary of Trump administration pointed out in his open letter on June 3rd this year, Trump is a divided president who "never tries to unite".
The danger lies here. If Trump loses, the voters who support him are likely to refuse to accept the reality and continue to support Trump enthusiastically under the encouragement of Trump and his campaign team. At present, various conspiracy theories are popular among Trump supporters. Since the start of the campaign, the Trump team has been exposed to various accusations of "campaign corruption" and its refusal to promise to transfer power peacefully after losing the election, which has further strengthened the fear of its supporters that "our America" will be usurped and stimulated their enthusiasm to defend "our America". Recently, two consecutive incidents of right-wing white organizations trying to kidnap Democratic governors by armed forces have already shown the evil omen of such fanaticism.
Recently, Thomas Friedman, a well-known columnist in The New York Times, pointed out with concern that this election may lead to American Civil War. He is worried about these evangelical white voters who live in the vast suburban counties of the United States. As fanatical gun holders, they hold all kinds of modern standard guns; The evangelicals makes are well organized and have nationwide contact networks. Once Trump loses the election, there will be fear of losing "our America". His fanatical supporters of the American traditional white values, will probably be prompted to take actions.
After all, the only difference between their actions and those of their ancestors who fought in the American Revolution is that their ancestors rode horses and carried guns to fight, and they will probably drive pickup trucks and off-road vehicles, armed with more modern guns, and resist the election results.
Moreover, even if Trump loses the election, he will still preside over the transitional government before the new president takes office on January 20, 2021, and still have the corresponding administrative power. This means that once the "November Surprise" happens, it will do great harm to America and the whole world. Therefore, we must take precautions.
Huang Jing is a political scientist that have worked in Harvard, Stanford , Singapore and now in Beijing.
Source:
Being wary of division and fanatical America will give the world a "November Surprise"
So far, the "October Surprise", which has been heated up by the US election, has not happened. Trump suddenly infected SARS-CoV-2 in early October, and although he was magically "quickly cured", his election situation showed an irreversible trend according to the survey of major evaluation agencies in the United States, and his government was actually in a state of semi-paralysis. As a result, it is less likely that the Trump administration will be surprised before the November 3rd election.
However, as far as this US election is concerned, the split of voters is unprecedented, and the two sides are almost at odds; Moreover, voters on both sides are highly emotional and ideological. Because of these two unprecedented characteristics, some former politicians and opinion leaders in the United States think that this is the most dangerous general election in the United States since the Civil War. After the election, there is a great possibility of "November Surprise".
There is a huge split in national identity
The great split in American voters' national identity is the fundamental reason for the antagonism between the two sides. Evangelical white voters are the main supporters of Trump. They consider themselves the true heirs and defenders of the United States of America. In their view, the United States is a country created by white immigrants represented by "may flower" immigrants, supported by Puritan values, and calling for personal freedom after the War of Independence. In their ideas, the essence of public power is evil. Therefore, the fundamental purpose of the so-called "democratic system" is to supervise and control the scope and functions of the public power-the government.
As their founding motto says: In God and democracy we trust. They are staunch defenders of guns and oppose abortion, homosexuality, multiculturalism and pluralistic values. In their philosophy, the prerequisite for the existence of "American melting pot" is that immigrants from all over the world must accept the values and lifestyle of Mayflower. Only in this way can you become an American.
In the minds of these voters, the indispensable symbol ceremony of state power is when the President of the United States takes office, touching the Bible and chanting "God bless America". Trump's right wing is conservative and resolutely opposed to "political correctness", which has become their standard-bearer and hope for defending "our America" and won their fanatical support like religious belief.
Biden's supporters firmly believe that pluralism and tolerance are the foundation of the United States. Multiculturalism and ethnic groups are not only the reality of American society, but also the necessary conditions for the continuous development and growth of America. The inclusion, acceptance and equal rights of diverse cultures and ethnic groups in the United States are the necessary guarantee for the melting pot of the United States and the source of the soft power of the United States.
Therefore, Biden's supporters believe that American public power must provide institutional guarantee for defending multiculturalism, opposing racial discrimination and ensuring citizens' equal rights. The U.S. government should not only exercise the absolute power to defend sovereignty and territorial integrity and protect people's lives and property on behalf of the country, but also actively and extensively intervene in various social and economic affairs to ensure that "Americans" from all over the world can maintain their cultural heritage in accordance with the U.S. Constitution and enjoy equal rights of citizens.
The black life matter (BLM) movement sweeping across the United States not only opposes racial discrimination, but also highlights "Americanism" that is pluralistic, inclusive and equal. This group of voters is as enthusiastic as those who support Trump. In their view, if Trump continues to be in office for the next four years, the United States will face huge crisis that could destroy it.
Defending "our America" is fanatical
Obviously, Trump's campaign team is fully aware of the situation in two opposing of voters groups, and actively uses this division for personal gain. Since the beginning of the campaign, Trump's campaign team has constantly encouraged and supported various "political impulses" of white voters with evangelicals as the main body. Trump basically expressed support for people opposing wearing of masks, against social isolation and carried out armed occupation of public power places and those in armed conflict with the BLM movement.
In the first debate with Biden, when the host repeatedly asked Trump whether he opposed "white supremacy", Trump not only avoided answering, but said: "Proud boys, stand by!" As we all know, "Proud Boys" is a far-right political organization. They not only advocate that whites should be the masters of the United States, but also defend the so-called "our America" by force.
As the president of the United States, Trump not only did not try to overcome the national identity split that touched the foundation of the United States, but used this split to show off. As James Mathis, the former defense secretary of Trump administration pointed out in his open letter on June 3rd this year, Trump is a divided president who "never tries to unite".
The danger lies here. If Trump loses, the voters who support him are likely to refuse to accept the reality and continue to support Trump enthusiastically under the encouragement of Trump and his campaign team. At present, various conspiracy theories are popular among Trump supporters. Since the start of the campaign, the Trump team has been exposed to various accusations of "campaign corruption" and its refusal to promise to transfer power peacefully after losing the election, which has further strengthened the fear of its supporters that "our America" will be usurped and stimulated their enthusiasm to defend "our America". Recently, two consecutive incidents of right-wing white organizations trying to kidnap Democratic governors by armed forces have already shown the evil omen of such fanaticism.
Recently, Thomas Friedman, a well-known columnist in The New York Times, pointed out with concern that this election may lead to American Civil War. He is worried about these evangelical white voters who live in the vast suburban counties of the United States. As fanatical gun holders, they hold all kinds of modern standard guns; The evangelicals makes are well organized and have nationwide contact networks. Once Trump loses the election, there will be fear of losing "our America". His fanatical supporters of the American traditional white values, will probably be prompted to take actions.
After all, the only difference between their actions and those of their ancestors who fought in the American Revolution is that their ancestors rode horses and carried guns to fight, and they will probably drive pickup trucks and off-road vehicles, armed with more modern guns, and resist the election results.
Moreover, even if Trump loses the election, he will still preside over the transitional government before the new president takes office on January 20, 2021, and still have the corresponding administrative power. This means that once the "November Surprise" happens, it will do great harm to America and the whole world. Therefore, we must take precautions.
Trump's semiconductor ban is actually beneficial for Biden should he win the election. This way he could effectively retain embargo against Huawei and other Chinese firms without being the "bad guy", who was kicked out of office. I think that a lot of Democrat politicians are secretly grateful that Trump removed so many geopolitical hurdles for them.
I guess whether it's Biden or Trump, China would take this opportunity of the current mess in america by relentlessly establish itself not as a replacement but rather as a powerful force that would end US supremacy once and for all resulting the world to become bipolar or perhaps multipolar.
Works both ways. China can effectively embargo rare-earths and unreliable entities without being the "bad guy" because it is claim "proportionately retailiation" against US gov'ts actions, regardless of who is in power. If Biden wants to play dumb, he will have to accept the consequences as US sanctions are initiated by US Executive branch, not tied to single individual.
China's negotiation team is battle hardened and has clear-cut objectives. Biden's negotiation team will be fundamentally disadvantaged as they are taking-over negotiations that had no clear-cut goals or principles to begin with. It's much easier to drive a hard deal against a fresh team of negotiators from Biden, because the discontinuity of negotiator team and lack of clear principles underlying the original trade deal.
My prediction is both sides claim victory, sanctions are lifted, and move on. 5G embargo is still likely to continue (in US atleast), whereas Huawei will have more luck in Europe when US pressure subsides significantly.
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Biden-Xi will sign a trade deal which allows greater access to China's market for foreign companies (recycle/repackaged old promises as new), token purchases of agricultural products, it will have zero or weakened enforcement mechanisms, no "snap-back" tariffs, all sanctions/tariffs are removed (except 5G embargo is likely to stay so it doesn't appear Biden is completely capitulating), and both sides claim victory, and move on. China becomes the world's #1 economy by 2025, and SMIC will get access to EUV equipment, Huawei can access Google services, and WeChat/TikTok will not be banned.