CV-18 Fujian/003 CATOBAR carrier thread

[weig2000]

New and noteworthy:

Professor Jin Yinan (who is director of the strategic research institute at the PLA's National Defence University) at this conference said construction of China's third aircraft carrier began in March 2015 at JNCX!! 3:57 of the video, and it would be "flat deck, catapult take off". Consistent with known rumours of course.

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I assume that means steel cutting beginning in March 2015. If true (and I do believe it most likely is, and corresponds with previous/current rumours), I think we will probably see modules of 002 start to appear at JNCX next year at earliest.

The timing was a bit vague.

Essentially, he said he had given a lecture in Dalian in 2014 where 001A was being built. He said then he had given another lecture in JNCX back in March, 2015, and proceeded to give a brief intro of JNCX: How it was merged with another shipyard in 2010, which is now the builder for 002. Finally he said 002 is currently under construction in JNCX.

So he clearly confirmed that 002 the conventional CATOBAR carrier is under construction currently in JNCX. Whether the construction started in March 2015 is not obvious from his statement. It was a rather off-hand comment, and Chinese language does not have tense.

But clearly it's newsworthy, coming from a rather authoritative figure.

 

[Jeff Head]

Considering construction (likely steel cutting) of 001A at Dalian was said to have began in mid-late 2013, and visible assembly of modules first appeared in april/may 2015 (about 1.5-2 years after construction began), and considering 002 will likely be a bigger and more complex ship than 001A, I do believe we may see it put together in late 2017 to early 2018. From there, a 2020 launch time is definitely well within possibility.


Now the question is what will follow the first 002/CV-18... Another 002 at DL (maybe a "002A"?), or will they pause carrier production a few years, or maybe even leap directly to CVN? Who knows...

Yep, pretty amazing things coming.

As I said, an exciting achievement for the PLAN and will continue to change the balance of power in the western Pacific.

Watch for the Japanese to build another version of the Izumo (which they have already talked about) that is fixed wing aircraft ( meaning F-35B) capable in my opinion and for the South Koreans to follow through with their new Dokdo type vessel that has a ski-jump and is also F-35B capable.

You might even see Australia put some on their Canberras.

In either case...the Chinese with a full blow CATOBAR carrier will have achieved something pretty momentous, and that will be their third carrier.

I do not expect them to stop there.

I expect one more conventionally powered CATOBAR carrier followed by one or more nuclear powered ones through the 2020s...meaning by the 2030 time frame with the two Liaoning stul STOBARs, the two conventionally powered CATOBARs and one or two nuclear powered CATOBAR carriers, they could be approaching six carriers by 2030.

Pretty amazing.

 

[longmarch]

Had Hillary Clinton elected POTUS, I'm quite certain that Japan would get their hands on F-35B. With President Trump, I'm very doubtful, even though this would sound against his anti-China rhetoric.

 

[Jeff Head]

Had Hillary Clinton elected POTUS, I'm quite certain that Japan would get their hands on F-35B. With President Trump, I'm very doubtful, even though this would sound against his anti-China rhetoric.

If Japan requests them...which is a HUGE "if" at this point, I have no doubt they would be sold.

But unless Japan develops a specific new carrier for fixed wing aircraft beyond the Ixumo, I do not xpect them to do so.

But that is all getting Off Topic. The fact that we have these dates given by this level of individual within the PRC tells me that their first CATOBAR carrier is most probably in fact under construction and that type of higher level verification is, IMHO, big news.

I hope we see strong indication of it in the shipyards over the next few months.

 

[Jeff Head]

New and noteworthy:

Professor Jin Yinan (who is director of the strategic research institute at the PLA's National Defence University) at this conference said construction of China's third aircraft carrier began in March 2015 at JNCX!! 3:57 of the video, and it would be "flat deck, catapult take off". Consistent with known rumours of course.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

I assume that means steel cutting beginning in March 2015. If true (and I do believe it most likely is, and corresponds with previous/current rumours), I think we will probably see modules of 002 start to appear at JNCX next year at earliest.

I copied this over to the "wager" thread because I believe it wil prove relevant to the wager as soon as we see definitive evidence of this 1st CATOBAR carrier building.

 

[Blitzo]

I copied this over to the "wager" thread because I believe it wil prove relevant to the wager as soon as we see definitive evidence of this 1st CATOBAR carrier building.

I smack my lips... in anticipation

 

[abc123]

I do not expect them to stop there.

I expect one more conventionally powered CATOBAR carrier followed by one or more nuclear powered ones through the 2020s...meaning by the 2030 time frame with the two Liaoning stul STOBARs, the two conventionally powered CATOBARs and one or two nuclear powered CATOBAR carriers, they could be approaching six carriers by 2030.

Pretty amazing.

Fully agreed.

 

[Intrepid]

I hope we see strong indication of it in the shipyards over the next few months.

There should be a ship nearly ready for undocking. That will be the place for Type 002.

 

[Deino]

New and noteworthy:

Professor Jin Yinan (who is director of the strategic research institute at the PLA's National Defence University) at this conference said construction of China's third aircraft carrier began in March 2015 at JNCX!! 3:57 of the video, and it would be "flat deck, catapult take off". Consistent with known rumours of course.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

I assume that means steel cutting beginning in March 2015. If true (and I do believe it most likely is, and corresponds with previous/current rumours), I think we will probably see modules of 002 start to appear at JNCX next year at earliest.

The timing was a bit vague.

Essentially, he said he had given a lecture in Dalian in 2014 where 001A was being built. He said then he had given another lecture in JNCX back in March, 2015, and proceeded to give a brief intro of JNCX: How it was merged with another shipyard in 2010, which is now the builder for 002. Finally he said 002 is currently under construction in JNCX.

So he clearly confirmed that 002 the conventional CATOBAR carrier is under construction currently in JNCX. Whether the construction started in March 2015 is not obvious from his statement. It was a rather off-hand comment, and Chinese language does not have tense.

But clearly it's newsworthy, coming from a rather authoritative figure.

Thank You both for this information !!

But - I hope not a stupid question - ... if 002 is build at JNCX (Jiangnan Shipyard), in which dock will it be build?? As far as Wiki says - Yes, I know !!! :-( - the shipyard there has two building berths:

275m x 40m - 80,000 DWT
242m x 24m - 35,000 DWT
as well as three dry docks for capacities between 3,000 and 80,000 DWT.

But given the size of the Liaoning of more than 300m .... ?????

Deino

 

[Intrepid]

There are drydocks with over 500 m length and a new 1600-tons-gantry-crane in Shanghai.