Crisis in the Ukraine

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Jura The idiot

Jura The idiot

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my third in a row :)

the link I put into EDIT of the preceding post (#660) informs if Separatists succeeded in taking over Novoazovsk region, they would not only get the sea-access, but also "fully pushed Ukrainian forces out of the border between Donetsk Oblast and Russia" ... I didn't find an English version of this RIA announcement, but while looking for it, I noticed this fresh RIA map:
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Jeff Head

Jeff Head

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SampanViking said:
Clearly, one side must be delusional!

Somehow however, the Russian aid convey was able to drive right in to a supposedly besieged city...


Hopefully some more concise info by the morning.
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Or, the Ukrainian military surrounding the city, on inspecting the convoy, allowed humanitarian supplies through to the people.

Just a possibility.

We just do not know.
 
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Dannhill

Junior Member
Judging from the screams from Kiev/US, does not support your conjecture. Haven't you been reading western media about that Russian invasion with military vehicles painted in civilian white?
Very obvious things are not well with the Kiev offensive and they have failed in all their primary objectives.

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I've read that Kiev is preparing their defensive line as a fall back once winter sets in.

Jeff Head said:
Or, the Ukrainian military surrounding the city, on inspecting the convoy, allowed humanitarian supplies through to the people.

Just a possibility.

We just do not know.
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Dannhill

Junior Member
Col Cassad wrote about that movement down south and think nothing will develop from that because 1) it is just a recon with some elements that found the defense wall south doesn't exist at all because Kiev thrown everything up north, 2) the separatists do not have the strength to exploit the big hole found.

So at best, more like roaming around the enemy rear doing raiding. Personally I agree with him that there will not be a drive down south to end with more territories under separatists control. They just don't have the men to do that. I saw a photo of the vehicles they have taken from Kiev forces just all parked because they don't have the men to drive them.

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I read your link and found the infograph nice and has interesting tidbits about the militia pulling T34 and a Josef Stalin tank off town pedestrals and repairing them for use again. :)

The casualty figure given by Kiev doesn't bear out videos from south cauldron survivors telling of brigades with 4,000 men MIA.


Jura said:
my third in a row :)

the link I put into EDIT of the preceding post (#660) informs if Separatists succeeded in taking over Novoazovsk region, they would not only get the sea-access, but also "fully pushed Ukrainian forces out of the border between Donetsk Oblast and Russia" ... I didn't find an English version of this RIA announcement, but while looking for it, I noticed this fresh RIA map:
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Click to expand...
 
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SampanViking

SampanViking

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Thank you Jura for your replies and yes it was a surprise to find the official Ukrainian map being used RIA.

What does this tell us? Are NR putting out the most complex disinformation campaign that seeks to hide that they are being roundly defeated and forced ever back towards their capitols?

Well, I seriously doubt it, especially when you then read the official record from the Ukrainian defence minister for the day.

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Just look at the towns he mentions for where the clashes took place

“At the same time Ukrainian troops are carrying out raids in the direction of Ilovaisk-Zuhres (Donetsk region),” Lysenko added. “Over the past 24 hours the Ukrainian forces of the ATO have engaged in combat with terrorists in the area of Luzhki, Sontseve, Karpovo-Nadezhdovka, Avdiivka, Sabovka and Shevchenko.”
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I checked the locations of these towns and found that they pretty much all were outside of the territory which the official map cites as still under militia control. In particluar Luzhi and Sontseve are each down one of the two South running roads that head to Telmonove (which you marked on your map), Avdiivka is shown in territory no longer controlled and Shevchenko is fully outside even that. Sabovka is in territory that the Kiev map shows as held by their forces in the total encirclement of the city.

In other words the ministry is contradicting the logic of its own map, it does however make more sense if the NR map is used instead.

Thank you also to Dannhill for the Cassad link, but I will need to wait for the translation (hopefully not too long).

Jeff, re the convoy I can only post the link to the report from the RT embedded correspondent and let you judge for yourself.
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Overall going back to the map, I can only assume that there is some kind of convention that gives the credence to such things to State players and so because NR is not recognised; even by Russia, the Kiev maps are used, irrespective of how ludicrous they become.
 
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pla101prc

Senior Member
SampanViking said:
Yes you can see the potential, but you must weigh the balance of forces. You do need a force of sufficient size and power to encircle and entrap an enemy, otherwise they can just role through you. It may be that the limits of the militia power available dictated the smaller rather than larger enclosure.
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actually i believe an envelopment of ukrainian forces north of luhansk may prove to be significant at operational level.

first of all, cutting off the ukrainian forces' lines of communication, even temporarily, will force them to divert their resources away from luhansk, thus precluding the possibility of capturing luhansk before the arrival of winter. this in itself merits a serious attempt by luhansk militia. second, there is a river about 70m wide just north of luhansk. from what i can see on GE there is only one bridge within the vicinity of luhansk. if luhansk militia can capture or destroy that bridge, then they will have in effect denied ukrainian forces south of that river reinforcement and supply, even if temporarily.
 
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Dannhill

Junior Member
SampanViking, I used Chrome to read the original Col Cassad as Chrome has auto translate and it's quite readable. The English version of Cassad is too slow at times.

I like Cassad because he backs up his Sitreps with maps, videos and photos. And he's not given to grandios bullshit propaganda in his reporting (ala Kiev). He also includes videos from Kiev soldiers talking about their experiences on the frontlines.

I watched your video link too and it's clear the militia control the whole road though there were signs of fighting, evidently from Kiev recon forces focing their way in to attempt to block it. Conjecture of course :D.

Damn those Russians sending in their armored column in the guise of food aid!! All those T090s and Buks and S-400s!!

They missed a propaganda coup by not flying big Russian flags from each of those white trucks. I'd have done that, screw European political sensitivity. "Might as well be hung for a sheep as a lamb", if you know what I mean.

SampanViking said:
Thank you Jura for your replies and yes it was a surprise to find the official Ukrainian map being used RIA.

What does this tell us? Are NR putting out the most complex disinformation campaign that seeks to hide that they are being roundly defeated and forced ever back towards their capitols?

Well, I seriously doubt it, especially when you then read the official record from the Ukrainian defence minister for the day.

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Just look at the towns he mentions for where the clashes took place



I checked the locations of these towns and found that they pretty much all were outside of the territory which the official map cites as still under militia control. In particluar Luzhi and Sontseve are each down one of the two South running roads that head to Telmonove (which you marked on your map), Avdiivka is shown in territory no longer controlled and Shevchenko is fully outside even that. Sabovka is in territory that the Kiev map shows as held by their forces in the total encirclement of the city.

In other words the ministry is contradicting the logic of its own map, it does however make more sense if the NR map is used instead.

Thank you also to Dannhill for the Cassad link, but I will need to wait for the translation (hopefully not too long).

Jeff, re the convoy I can only post the link to the report from the RT embedded correspondent and let you judge for yourself.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


Overall going back to the map, I can only assume that there is some kind of convention that gives the credence to such things to State players and so because NR is not recognised; even by Russia, the Kiev maps are used, irrespective of how ludicrous they become.
Click to expand...
 
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Dannhill

Junior Member
Saker has a good read that talks about the ordinary Ukrianian psyche and why there are no cases of "terrorism" attacks within Kiev. Talks also about the contradictory maps and interpretation, the numerical superiority of Kiev forces in men and equipment versus the militias, about why the militias are forced by their circumstances to fight and defend a smaller space, using bait and close envelopments as a strategy.

He also talks about why the much talked about militia counter offensive is not going to happen anytime soon. Very obvious if you accept that the militias are Ukranians and not 50,000 Russian Spetnez in full combat gear and T90 tanks.

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pla101prc

Senior Member
Dannhill said:
Saker has a good read that talks about the ordinary Ukrianian psyche and why there are no cases of "terrorism" attacks within Kiev. Talks also about the contradictory maps and interpretation, the numerical superiority of Kiev forces in men and equipment versus the militias, about why the militias are forced by their circumstances to fight and defend a smaller space, using bait and close envelopments as a strategy.

He also talks about why the much talked about militia counter offensive is not going to happen anytime soon. Very obvious if you accept that the militias are Ukranians and not 50,000 Russian Spetnez in full combat gear and T90 tanks.

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his analysis at the strategic level pretty much echoes mine, though i disagree with him on his operational analysis.

my thoughts on the "endgame" for novrussia is exactly the same as what he outlined in the article. the militia needs to show that fighting will not result in victory for the government forces at least in the short term. they can either do it through one or more victory of overwhelming proportions, so much so that even the ukrainian media could not ignore, or let the russians intervene directly. either one of these will put an end to kiev's endeavour to eradicate novrussian forces.

on the operational level though i do not believe that novrussian "had it all planned out" as was suggested to in the article. for example, kiev's drive towards krasnyi luch, and a drive along russian border that resulted in the infamous loss of three brigades, did not seem deliberate. because in both cases the militia had very small margins of error and if they were to go "oops" on either one they would have been finished.
 
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Dannhill

Junior Member
I agree that what men plan gods decide otherwise. That's why Kiev's plans look good on papers only if the militia cooperate by being dumb asses sitting on their butts twiddling their thumbs and let Kiev forces do whatever they want.

Overall, there will be no counter attack precisely as both Cassad and Saker had stated that the militia do not have the numbers needed, and they can only play at putting out fires, within their much shorter defence lines. Any counter attacks would only be local in nature.

pla101prc said:
his analysis at the strategic level pretty much echoes mine, though i disagree with him on his operational analysis.

my thoughts on the "endgame" for novrussia is exactly the same as what he outlined in the article. the militia needs to show that fighting will not result in victory for the government forces at least in the short term. they can either do it through one or more victory of overwhelming proportions, so much so that even the ukrainian media could not ignore, or let the russians intervene directly. either one of these will put an end to kiev's endeavour to eradicate novrussian forces.

on the operational level though i do not believe that novrussian "had it all planned out" as was suggested to in the article. for example, kiev's drive towards krasnyi luch, and a drive along russian border that resulted in the infamous loss of three brigades, did not seem deliberate. because in both cases the militia had very small margins of error and if they were to go "oops" on either one they would have been finished.
Click to expand...
 
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