Crisis in the Ukraine


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bd popeye

The Last Jedi
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Effective 1 November 2014 I will close all political threads and leave links to other forums that permit unabated political discussion.

Here's the first one;

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Our SDF forum is a private entity and we can set the rules as we see fit. And one of them is no politics.

It is my experience in over nine years in this forum that political discussion just brings out the worst in our fine well intentioned members.

DO NOT quote or discuss this post.


bd popeye super moderator
 
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SampanViking

The Capitalist
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Two big stories today and both from BBC

1) The Dutch Investigator has indeed asked Russia to provide full details of the Evidence it produces regarding a Ukrainian Fighter Jet

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It certainly chimes with the investigation leaders obvious unhappiness with the lack of information coming from other major sources as stated in his Speigel Interview.

2) Russia will recognise the result of the votes in the rebel held areas on Sunday
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If you recognise the result, then you recognise the vote itself and I think it is difficult to recognise a vote and not be recognising the body to which the vote pertains.
In short, is this recognition of the DPR and LPR as a) legitimate and b) Independent Political entities?
It also means that Poroshenko's proposed elections for these areas are now dead as a DoDo.

Add to this the consequences (once confirmed) of the excessively low turn out in the main Pro Russian regions. What would be very interesting is to learn whether or not residents in these areas, which are not also under rebel control, also try to hold ballots on Sunday. That would be an alignment of very major planets indeed!
 

delft

Brigadier
Two big stories today and both from BBC

1) The Dutch Investigator has indeed asked Russia to provide full details of the Evidence it produces regarding a Ukrainian Fighter Jet

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It certainly chimes with the investigation leaders obvious unhappiness with the lack of information coming from other major sources as stated in his Speigel Interview.

2) Russia will recognise the result of the votes in the rebel held areas on Sunday
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If you recognise the result, then you recognise the vote itself and I think it is difficult to recognise a vote and not be recognising the body to which the vote pertains.
In short, is this recognition of the DPR and LPR as a) legitimate and b) Independent Political entities?
It also means that Poroshenko's proposed elections for these areas are now dead as a DoDo.

Add to this the consequences (once confirmed) of the excessively low turn out in the main Pro Russian regions. What would be very interesting is to learn whether or not residents in these areas, which are not also under rebel control, also try to hold ballots on Sunday. That would be an alignment of very major planets indeed!
Re 1: Westerbeke told his story to a foreign news magazine, not to the the relatives of the victims or the Dutch parliament, for which he is being critisized by the foreign affairs commentator of my favorite radio station. And he is not only asking for information from the Russians but also for satellites information from the US, about which he remarked that "we" are allies of the US in the fight against IS.

I read somewhere that the turn out in Odessa was less than 14 %. That surely is a vote of no confidence in Kiev.
 

SampanViking

The Capitalist
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Re 1: Westerbeke told his story to a foreign news magazine, not to the the relatives of the victims or the Dutch parliament, for which he is being critisized by the foreign affairs commentator of my favorite radio station. And he is not only asking for information from the Russians but also for satellites information from the US, about which he remarked that "we" are allies of the US in the fight against IS.

I read somewhere that the turn out in Odessa was less than 14 %. That surely is a vote of no confidence in Kiev.
These are precisely the kind of figures that I have seen quoted throughout the South and East and why I am champing at the bit to see the official turn out figures for the individual regions. It makes what happens in these places on Sunday all the more interesting.

Now something from TASS and again looking for wider confirmation of the story.

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This is a report saying that the Ukraine is denying signing the disengagement agreement of the Minsk Peace Plan.

It does look as though the Cease Fire is about to fully collapse very soon and this Sunday does suggest itself as the day it is likely to happen.

I keep coming back to the Russian calculus in all this; specifically to the recognition of the Sunday vote result.
Is it that trying to have sanctions withdrawn is a fools promise and that they will be maintained and increased irrespective of whatever Russia does and that by trying to appease the West, it will simply lose its interests in the Donbass.
Alternatively, does Russia now measure that the sanctions stress in Europe is maximum and that the continent is not willing or able to burden further economic pain by continuing much longer with existing measures, let alone add new ones.

There is of course the option that the threat of recognition is simply a negotiating tool to win concessions on other matters, not necessarily related to the Ukraine at all. Possible, but the problem with this would be that you can't really show a large hungry dog a bone and then take it away from him. You may argue as to how big a dog the East Ukraine is, but given that the cause has a lot of popular support throughout Russia, it would be very damaging to allow a deal which has (or gives even the appearance of having) the breakaway regions thrown under a Bus.
 

Piotr

Banned Idiot
According to English newspaper "The Times" women in Novorussia (ex Ukraine) wear hijabs:
The Times publishes a fake
British oldie “The Times” acts the [email protected]#$%^&*!

Look at the photo, with which the article about the parliamentary elections in Ukraine was illustrated! The photo is signed with the following: “Mre than five million people could not vote as they were in the territories held by pro-Russian separatists”. As far as I understand, they guy in the helmet armed with a machine-gun is a pro-Russian separatist, and a woman in the Moslem dress is the embodiment of the much-suffering women in Donbass, whom the terrible “pro-Russian” separatists force to wear hijabs.

And, just in case, I present a picture from the timeline of the Associated Press. The author of the photo is Mukhtar Khan. It was made in the Indian state of Jammu and Cashmere. As you understand, the picture has nothing to do with Donbass, as well as with Ukrainian elections.

PS. And, by the way, the name of the city where the photo was taken, is Srinagar (sorry for this intimate detail).
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Photo from The Times:
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Photo from AP:
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Dannhill

Junior Member
Sampanviking, further to your comment, Cassad had also wrote on Kiev withdrawal of their signatory on the demarcation of forces pullback. Kiev claimed the Russian willingness to accept the election results of the coming east Ukraine elections is against the Minsk Agreement, thereby voiding it. Very much lock step with what Kerry said.

Seems Putin really means the Bear is coming out when he gave that talk. Russia is not gaining anything giving in to US/EU demands at all.

Cassas said expect the Kiev offensive before the elections to make sure it won't take place at all. Hope Moscow open wide the PX.

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delft

Brigadier
The news bulletin on my favorite radio station had an item that Malaysia is unhappy about the investigation in the crash of MH17 that is led by The Netherlands. I understand that they complain that they do not get the information as it is collected.
Of course they didn't sign the the agreement with The Netherlands, Ukraine, Australia and Belgium to publish only things all four agree to.
 
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delft

Brigadier
Cold War talk is fully back. One example:
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29 October 2014 Last updated at 20:33 GMT
Nato reports rise in Russia military flights over Europe

Nato has reported an "unusual" increase in Russian military aircraft conducting manoeuvres over European airspace over the last two days.

A Nato statement said four groups of aircraft, including Tu-95 Bear bombers and MiG-31 fighters, were tracked over seas and the Atlantic Ocean.

Fighter aircraft from Norway, Britain, Portugal, Germany and Turkey were scrambled in response.

Tensions between Russia and Nato states have soared over the Ukraine crisis.

The US and EU imposed sanctions on Russia after its annexation of Ukraine's Crimean peninsula earlier this year.

Ties have been further strained as the West has accused Russia of supporting rebels in eastern Ukraine - a charge Russia has denied.

The Nato statement on Wednesday made no mention of Ukraine.

It said that the "sizeable" Russian flights were unusual for their scale, although no incidents had been reported.

The statement said Russian aircraft were detected flying over the Black Sea, the Baltic Sea, the North Sea and the Atlantic Ocean, prompting fighter jets from Nato member states to intercept and follow them.

Overall, Nato said it had intercepted Russian aircraft more than 100 times so far this year - three times more than it did last year.

"Scrambles and intercepts are standard procedure when an unknown aircraft approaches Nato airspace," the statement said.

However, it said, such flights pose a potential risk to civilian aviation because the Russian military often does not file flight plans or use on-board transponders.

"This means civilian air traffic control cannot detect these aircraft nor ensure there is no interference with civilian air traffic," the statement said.
In many articles the "flying over Europe" is not qualified with "flying over international waters". They demand increase in defense spending to protect Europe against the "aggressive group in the Kremlin", without telling the readers that the European NATO countries are spending much more on defense than Russia.

The situation in non-NATO country Ukraine is translated in a threat of conquest of NATO countries. And the situation in Ukraine is the result of more than twenty years of massive corruption. The Dutch senator I mentioned earlier spoke with the Kiev appointed governor of Donetsk who described that corruption to him but said he himself was not corrupt because he was too rich. :)
 

SampanViking

The Capitalist
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Well Well Well!

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Genuinely surprised as I really did not see this actually being pulled off. I can only guess that the need to secure Europes supply has trumped all other considerations.

Th Ukrainians do need to pay an initial tranche of approx $1.5 Billion to kick it off and the same again by the end of the year to write of the debts, which is central to the deal.

The Russians appear to have everything they want, the price, the settlement of arrears, the prepayment for new supplies..... its really to good to be true! Does this mean that nobody has been taking the negotiations quite as seriously as they should have done? Has this all been about avoiding the blame for not getting a deal? Does it not really matter as the fighting is shortly about to resume and not a penny will ever be paid because...........
 
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