Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

Air Force Brat

Brigadier
Super Moderator
The biggest problem with the US response is it's too uncoordinated. I'm sure new cases in NY will see a peak in a couple of weeks, but then what? Is NY going to close its border with states who haven't gone through a lockdown? Can states even do that without breaking the constitution? In my state here in the flyover country (this is one of the rare instances where having others just flew over is a good thing), we don't even have a statewide coordinated response, counties are calling their own shots. The county government in my little college town ordered us to shelter in place but everything are being carried on as normal in nearby counties, because they haven't seen many cases YET. I'm afraid once things are under control here, our neighbors will have their own outbreaks and we're just playing whack-a-mole with the virus.

I don't disagree, but with local control, you do have a more "targeted" response.
 

Pika

Junior Member
Registered Member
The USA will as early as end of today surpass 100,000 of confirmed Covid-19 cases. How did the US ended up with such a mess and in such a short time? I am sure many articles will be written on how the Public Health system adequately or inadequately stepped up to the crisis. What is clear to me is that the "system" dropped the ball by failure to ramp up on the availability of testing kits and wasted probably two weeks of crucial mobilization window.

We know that extensive testing is vitally important in identifying carriers within the population so as to quickly isolate them from the rest of the population. This was clearly the case with the South Korean experience and its success in containing the spread. A write up on the story can be found here.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


In contrast, the US was very slow in this effort compared to a number of countries. The following chart highlights the lack of effort during the comparable time period in terms of testing per 100,000 popultion.

View attachment 58730

The good news is that in recent days the testing regime has significantly scaled up and the main reason why the number of confirmed cases have also increased significantly.

View attachment 58731

Put in perspective, the scale of US testing as early as a week ago was way behind when bench-marked against some other countries.

View attachment 58732

There is a write up explaining why the US was so slow in ramping up testing
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


Unfortunately, the genie is now out of the bottle and will require a lot more effort to address the crisis. New York is now the epicenter for the US just as Wuhan was to China. It is the place to watch to understand how well or badly the US "system' is coping with the crisis. New York currently is averaging 30 % positive results which suggest that the scale of testing is still insufficient in identifying the cases that need to be isolated to prevent community infection. In contrast, South Korea's testing regime resulted in a 3 % strike rate which means the scope of testing was more extensive.

View attachment 58733


Covid-19 is now present in almost every country and is a world wide problem no matter where you live. We can all play a part by observing and practicing social distancing because one less infection means one less strain on the health system. The following is a study on the effectiveness of social distancing only if each of us play a part in the effort.

View attachment 58736

Stay safe.

Source for the graphs in your comment. Specifically, the one about US states.
 

Intrepid

Major
In such a dynamic situation as at the moment, one should compare the current number of deaths with the number of known positive infections approximately 11 days in the past due to the incubation period. Then you get an impression of how well it was tested.
 
The thing is like Italy, the US has allowed mild patients to stay at home and being taken care of by their family members which pose significant risks to their family members and neighbors.

This strategy may work in suburbs, where families are mostly living in single-family homes. It wouldn't work so well in China or Italy, where single-family homes effectively don't exist in urban areas. But in the US, where the majority of people live in suburbs and single-family homes, self-isolation may be sufficient to prevent spread.
 

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
Looking at Italy, the kinds of social distance that implemented in the US are not enough to drastically slow down the number of new infections. That means that even though NY might have been able to flatten the curve in another two weeks. New infections would still stay in thousands per day for a prolong period of time. I am more worried about if the NY hospital system can cope with the surge of new patients in the coming weeks.

In addition, Georgia, Louisiana, Illinois, Michigan, and Florida have become very problematic very quickly. New Jersey, California, and Massachusetts don't look good. Not sure the federal government has enough resource to distribute since it is still dragging its feet.

Any measure needs to be there for years .

This won't go away in a matter of weeks. This is not a sprint, it is a marathon.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Chinese Ventilator industry is working hard to increase production Lets not forget they worked 24/7. Here is the Chinese capacity per month 15000 ventilator. But they have stockpile or inoperation of half a million
中国有多少呼吸机 2020-03-25 09:54:0 中国是全球最大呼吸机生产国家以及出口国家,由于现在多个国家呼吸机极度紧缺,中国在保证内需的同时给它们提供了援助。那么问题来了,中国一天可以生产多少呼吸机?我国大概有多少呼吸机?下面一起来了解下这些问题。 呼吸机不同于口罩,这种医疗设备制造难度更高,但我国月产量还是高达1.5万台,全球任何一个国家都不能与中国相比。消息称,我国拥有超过五十万台呼吸机,在过去的两个多月里,呼吸机持有量暴涨。 据我国医疗器械企业迈瑞透露,已拿下了意大利近万台设备订单,包括呼吸机和监护仪等产品,目前正在加紧生产,分批交付。美国纽约政府也透露,已经向中国预定超过万台呼吸机。

ENGLISH
How many ventilator are there in China 2020-03-25 09: 54: 0 China is the world's largest ventilator producer and exporter. Due to the extreme shortage of ventilators in many countries, China has provided assistance to them while ensuring domestic demand. So the question is, how many ventilators can China produce in a day? How many ventilators are there in China? Let's understand these issues together.

Ventilator is different from masks. This kind of medical equipment is more difficult to manufacture, but China's monthly output is still as high as 15,000 units. No country in the world can compare with China. It is reported that China has more than 500,000 ventilators. In the past two months, the number of ventilator holdings has skyrocketed. According to China's medical device company Mindray, it has won orders for nearly 10,000 sets of equipment in Italy, including products such as ventilators and monitors. It is currently stepping up production and delivering in batches. The New York government also revealed that it has ordered more than 10,000 ventilators from China.
 

KYli

Brigadier
This strategy may work in suburbs, where families are mostly living in single-family homes. It wouldn't work so well in China or Italy, where single-family homes effectively don't exist in urban areas. But in the US, where the majority of people live in suburbs and single-family homes, self-isolation may be sufficient to prevent spread.

That's true. But right now the outbreaks occur and concentrate in NYC, Detroit, Chicago, New Orleans, Seattle, LA, and Boston etc. And this strategy doesn't work well in the urban area. In addition, many NYC residents have flee to Long Island and NJ which have created major problem for them. Therefore, if major urban area can't contain the virus and isolate patients in temporary hospitals instead of homes, then the surrounding suburbs would be hard hit weeks later.
 

Air Force Brat

Brigadier
Super Moderator
I wrote this before early on in here about an article I read where the journalist pointed out how useless China building two hospitals in ten days that can handle a thousand patients each when there were over a hundred thousand people infected. Well that's because not everyone infected needs to go to the hospital.

Exactly, China's response, like each of our subsequent responses was initial dis-belief, followed shortly by WTH is going on here, followed by a massive attack on the virus, which has, and will be repeated in each and every country which has been cursed by massive numbers.

It really is very scary how quickly this has "rolled over" so many of us, if it hasn't "rolled over you"? I would suggest that you be very thankful... All of us will be carefully examining every element of this "heinous killer", and looking back at what we could have, and should have done?? and taking steps to combat this current killer, and attempting to put in place measures to mitigate the future risk.
 
Top