Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)


Jura

General
Yesterday at 4:51 PM
I'm wondering about the US officials how many Americans would they expect to die; inside
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there're various opinions, but no final number (obviously an estimate at this point, but still)

actually inside there's an interesting observation about US deaths: "... the doubling time seems to be about two-three days."
which I checked, and it's something like (don't nitpick) 30 around March 18 -- 60 around March 21 -- 120 around March 24
-- doubled again ("Officials reported 223 deaths Wednesday ..."
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),

so will it go to like 500 March 30 -- 1k April 3 -- 2k April 6 or what
 

reservior dogs

New Member
Registered Member
Yesterday at 4:51 PM
-- doubled again ("Officials reported 223 deaths Wednesday ..."
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),

so will it go to like 500 March 30 -- 1k April 3 -- 2k April 6 or what
California looks to be tapering off. NY is a different story. Europe is looking pretty grim. Italy, Spain, Great Britain and France are all racing ahead. Italy, who started the lock down about a month ago, is not seeing the drop as we are seeing with China one month after their lock down. This thing will be with us through the summer and into the fall I am afraid.
 

Jura

General
California looks to be tapering off. NY is a different story. Europe is looking pretty grim. Italy, Spain, Great Britain and France are all racing ahead. Italy, who started the lock down about a month ago, is not seeing the drop as we are seeing with China one month after their lock down. This thing will be with us through the summer and into the fall I am afraid.
to me it's incomprehensible what's going on in the US I mean nothing is done in the US to stop the virus so citizens are dying by hundreds daily

there's a partial lockdown here (cops catching those who'd gather in parks, who wouldn't wear a face cover, etc.),
now 22 600 tested, 1 654 positive, 6 killed, only 10 recovered (the numbers in bold will get updated at 9 am),
and the government announced a more strict lockdown would follow it there're 10k infected
 

Jura

General
Up to 10 per cent of recovered coronavirus patients in Wuhan study tested positive later, doctors say
  • Hospital staff in the city say there is no evidence that these patients became infectious after recovery
  • Tests carried out on patients suggest between 3 to 10 per cent gave positive tests after being discharged
while reading
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I thought perhaps the virus might stay forever in some people??

whatever, I'll now put my wife's scarf on and leave for work
 

plawolf

Brigadier
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who are the individuals bringing it back?
Mostly overseas Chinese who are worried about the state of affairs in the normal country of residence and/or cannot afford/don’t want to pay the medical bills for treatment (COVID19 treatment is 100% free in China).

This is a clear example where individual decisions to maximise their own chances of survival and benefit is also maximising the risk to society as a whole.
 
I am really sorry to hear that. I hope you and your family can stay safe in these difficult times.

Thankfully, here in Canada, we are not yet seeing any instances of anti-Asian assaults, but I'm under no illusion that Canada is immune to racism.

The silver lining here is that with the quarantine, my family and I don't need to actually go out these days.
I will say that in these circumstances I wish I was in a house with a big yard in the burbs with much more space and options for "staying in" activities than a small apartment in the city.
 

Air Force Brat

Brigadier
Super Moderator
Still you can't deny that all the demonization of everything China by this administration will have an impact on how some people view Asians in this country. It don't make any difference if we are Japanese or Vietnamese. Impulses barely contained by previous administrations had been allowed to surface when people needed someone to blame. I guess under the thin veneer we are not that different compared to a couple hundred years ago.
"

This is NOT the "who shot John?" thread, the US and CHINESE govts are involved in a dispute, leave that out of this corona virus discussion: Webby and Deino have made it very clear how members are to conduct themselves in THIS thread, responsible members continue to attempt to "self police this thread" in order to keep it open, do NOT respond to this modertion:
 

Air Force Brat

Brigadier
Super Moderator
Yesterday at 4:51 PM
-- doubled again ("Officials reported 223 deaths Wednesday ..."
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),

so will it go to like 500 March 30 -- 1k April 3 -- 2k April 6 or what
No, your model is inaccurate, while the numbers will increase exponentially, the West and East coasts each have large populations of "at risk" community's. Atlanta and Chicago are also a large "at risk" populations, and there are others through out the country, but there simply is not the "population density" to fuel the numbers coming out of New York.

Europe has a very high population density as well, much like Wuhan, Italy, and Spain, there are lots of questions about why it seems to be more virulent in some communities and less so in other communities.

So lets leave some of the "sky is falling" drama to "chicken little", it serves no purpose here other than to fuel discord....

This is a virulent contagion that will fuel some very frightening numbers, but thankfully your data and your method are flawed, amateurs should leave the projections to accurate scientific models that factor in accurate data, not mass hysteria.

So lets stick to our forte's, and leave the the projections to those to whom accurate projections matter.
 

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