Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

vesicles

Colonel
Frankly now the model is built is not the important part but what can be meaningfully interpreted from it. IMO there are at least two important takeaways.

I believe how the model is built is actually the most important thing. Any mathematical model is an approximation. What you choose to ignore and what you choose to include are very important for us to evaluate whether your model is any good.

Have you tried to test your model on some existing data, like SARS?

If your model is not realistic and cannot replicate real world data, its interpretation is meaningless
 

KYli

Brigadier
Can someone clarify what's going on with the hospitals? Are they building one or two hospitals? Did they finish one already or are they both still under construction?

How many beds are there? I've seen any number from 700 to 1000 to the 1600 posted by Hendricks above.

They are building 4 coronvius hospitals. 2 of them are in Wuhan and 2 in Henan. Huoshenshan Hospital is scheduled to be completed on 2/1 and put in used on 2/3 and has 1000+ beds, and Leishenshan Hospital is scheduled to be completed on 2/5 and has 1600+ beds.
 

mahakala

New Member
Registered Member
Hi all, long time lurker here - medical by background (not the only one here, to my pleasant surprise; however I am not infectious disease specialist), I thought I'd share some useful information and links on nCOV-2019. There are sadly too much misinformation going around at the moment.


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This is a twitter thread by an infectious disease specialist in the UK, featuring good quality data and papers on the topic so far, and she keeps it up to date as well. There has been a lot of debates on here about how deadly this disease is (and to that extent, the mortality rate). The fact of the matter is we simply do not have enough data to draw a solid conclusion ( see:
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). As eluded by other members already, there are potentially many who have caught the disease but they either suffered from very mild symptoms or none at all, and did not seek any medical attention. Table below for comparison of recent viral outbreaks.

nejmp2000929_t1.jpeg


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Live tracking of all the nCOV-2019 in China, it seems to update on an hourly basis and all data are pulled from each province's respective health department. This is in Chinese, but the 4 numbers above to map corresponds to: confirmed case, suspect case, death, and cured respectively from left to right. This should put to rest any argument about Chinese government not being transparent about the outbreak.

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The 3rd edition of national guidance on diagnosis + treatment of nCOV-2019; this is circulated on a wechat medical group, and unfortunately only in Chinese as well. Very technical documents where it offers clinical definitions and suggested treatments; interestingly it also recommends traditional chinese medicine formulary for treatment.

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Presentation slides given by Wuhan doctors, mainly focusing on the radiology findings of the disease. Again in Chinese only and a very technical document.
 

Gatekeeper

Brigadier
Registered Member
Look at the British Grenfell tower disaster. Nearly a hundred dead, a national safety scandal that is still not even bottomed out in terms of the turn scale of at risk buildings, and not one person held responsible in any way other than a cheap shot attempt to scapegoat the fire fighter commander.

This was what I was talking about earlier. If the Grenfell tower had happened in China, the MAN would have had a field day in blaming everything and everyone, from censorship to draconian China, together with images of 1984 Orwellian images of oppressed people. And then everything put squarely at Xi's door!
 

ZeEa5KPul

Colonel
Registered Member
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China fast-tracks novel coronavirus vaccine development

SHANGHAI, Jan. 28 (Xinhua) -- The project for the development of an mRNA vaccine targeting the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) has been urgently approved, said Shanghai East Hospital of Tongji University.

The vaccine will be co-developed by the hospital and Stermirna Therapeutics Co., Ltd.

Li Hangwen, CEO of Stermirna Therapeutics, said no more than 40 days will be needed to manufacture the vaccine samples based on the new generation of mRNA technology and some preliminary procedures.

The samples will be sent for tests and brought to clinics as soon as possible.

The production cycle of traditional vaccines can be as long as five to six months, whereas the mRNA vaccine has the advantage of a shorter development and production cycle.
 
Is the any credible evidence that this virus has infected any persons of Caucasin dna so far? ...
Germany confirms three further cases of coronavirus
Date 28.01.2020 "The disease, which has killed more than 100 people in China, has now infected four people in Bavaria. All four instances are thought to be connected to the recent visit of a Chinese worker to the area."
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by the way I searched the SCMP now, because I think I saw a related headline already in December (but no, I didn't pay attention then), probably this one:
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Published: 2:35pm, 31 Dec, 2019

inside, there's this interesting picture:
418e78b8-2b88-11ea-8334-1a17c6a14ef4_image_hires_011737.jpg

Wuhan’s Huanan seafood market, where most of the mystery viral pneumonia cases have originated. Photo: Handout
 
I took a look myself (of course I plotted and fitted in a totally simplistic way):

virus.jpg


1st day (Jan 19 here) 2.29667 is base 10 logarithm value of the number of confirmed cases (198 on Jan 19)
2nd day 2.46389 ditto (291)
3rd day 2.64345 ditto (440)
4th day 2.75664 ditto (571)
5th day 2.91908 ditto (830)
6th day 3.10958 ditto (1287)
8th day 3.43838 ditto (2744)
9th day 3.65466 ditto (4515)
11th day (today = Jan 29) 3.78254 ditto (6061 today:
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)

if it keeps growing this way (it won't), it'll reach ten thousand on the 13th day (would be in the end of January), as in
(4-2.29667)/0.137 = 12.4331
 
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