Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

[shanlung]

Make it very clear.
I am stating things as I see it.
I am not wishing that on ANYONE unlike your innuedo on what I say.

I have many many very good American friends and friends all over the world.
You definately not included in those I considered friends.

You will instead be in the list to be ignored and whatever you write, even if grovelling apology, will not be seen by me.

I write in here in the open.
With my photos and my web page and Facebook for all to see.

I currently have 4,849 friends there and about to reach my limit in Facebook.
At least half of them are American friends that known me and my writings on birds and parrots over the last 20 years
Then I got Koreans, Taiwanese, Chinese, Japanese , German, French, Italians , Spanish Russian , Thai, Indonesian and from many other countries.

I do not hide myself behind a jumble of alphanumeric characters, like zgx09t , hiding in the dark and hoping to write in the dark and writing putting himself on pedestal casting pearls and judgement down.

 

[shanlung]

Sky rocketing? In Italy in Iran yes. in nations like Japan and South Korea perhaps. compared to their relative population. And the fact that South Korea refused to close the boarder to Chinese flights despite calls to do just that.
On the US you are spinning. It’s at 1/654,000. The odds of being struck by lightning are better.

As to South Korea, coviders set to explode and nothing to do with China at all.
And do tell us of lightning striking in USA in two weeks time.

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[KYli]

Don't get me wrong.
You just need to see what the real issue is.

Fighting or helping someone fight the current virus outbreak is in China's own interest, or for that matter everybody else's interest.
Virus doesn't have borders or needs passports or chooses nationalities.

Do you think it is already too late for it now? It is not like the American media and and its politicians would stop smearing China. For the past two months, I have read ton and ton of BS from all different media both left and right, all types of forums, comments sections. Both Japan(fukushima) or US(H1N1), China didn't try to smear them for the disaster. For Japan, China even provided helps. But what China got for the last two months were beyond acceptable.

Basically, we "Chinese" have been demonized. I have never witnessed that much prejudice and racism toward Chinese. They thought it would be China's chernobyl but that is the biggest mistakes they ever made. Virus knows no borders. That is correct. So now everyone needed to confront it but the US still chose to continue smearing China and Chinese instead of dealing with the incoming epidemic.

 

[zgx09t]

I write in here in the open.
With my photos and my web page and Facebook for all to see.

I currently have 4,849 friends there and about to reach my limit in Facebook.
At least half of them are American friends that known me and my writings on birds and parrots over the last 20 years
Then I got Koreans, Taiwanese, Chinese, Japanese , German, French, Italians , Spanish Russian , Thai, Indonesian and from many other countries.

I do not hide myself behind a jumble of alphanumeric characters, like zgx09t , hiding in the dark and hoping to write in the dark and writing putting himself on pedestal casting pearls and judgement down.

I don't need to know your whole life story.
Grow up, not just old.
Either way, it would be very convenient for both of us if you follow through your promise.

 

[zgx09t]

Do you think it is already too late for it now? It is not like the American media and and its politicians would stop smearing China. For the past two months, I have read ton and ton of BS from all different media both left and right, all types of forums, comments sections. Both Japan(fukushima) or US(H1N1), China didn't try to smear them for the disaster. For Japan, China even provided helps. But what China got for the last two months were beyond acceptable.

Basically, we "Chinese" have been demonized. I have never witnessed that much prejudice and racism toward Chinese. They thought it would be China's chernobyl but that is the biggest mistakes they ever made. Virus knows no borders. That is correct. So now everyone needed to confront it but the US still chose to continue smearing China and Chinese instead of dealing with the incoming epidemic.

If you get distracted by those trash talking and smearing, they win.
Keep your eyes on the prize as they say, which is making a roaring comeback for China, a stronger China.
I came here to see if there's any progress on vaccines or improvements in containing it, in China and around the world.

 

[Jura The idiot]

virus-related ramblings ("crowds congregated" on Super Tuesday etc.):

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[KYli]

If you get distracted by those trash talking and smearing, they win.
Keep your eyes on the prize as they say, which is making a roaring comeback for China, a stronger China.
I came here to see if there's any progress on vaccines or improvements in containing it, in China and around the world.

Vaccines wouldn't and couldn't be ready for mass production til another 9 months at least. China planned to begin human trial of vaccines in April but that is just for testing. It would be too late.

 

[Jura The idiot]

... The odds of being struck by lightning are better.

if I were you, I wouldn't try to laugh it out

in Italy there were 79 cases February 22 when they closed some villages
150 Feb 23
227 Feb 24
320 Feb 25
445 Feb 26
650 Feb 27
888 Feb 28
1128 Feb 29
1694 March 1
2036 March 2
2502 March 3
3855 March 4
4636 March 5
5883 March 6
7375 March 7 when they quarantined large chunks of the country (in China they did so at the point they had around 500 cases -- something like the US has now)

EDIT but of course yet another point of view is

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1236634209516752896

Yesterday at 9:51 PM

back to Italy, I took a closer look now and it appears as if there were two "trends" (could be just reporting, diagnosing or other issue):
a slower (the blue curve below) and a faster (the green curve below); an extrapolation (the red dashed curve below) from the last four points (#12, 13, 14 and 15) gives almost ten thousand (9591) for tomorrow!

so let's wait and see

 

[shanlung]

Vaccines wouldn't and couldn't be ready for mass production til another 9 months at least. China planned to begin human trial of vaccines in April but that is just for testing. It would be too late.

Why then we still aint got no vaccine for H3N2 even though it is 50 years down the road?

Ah so! They not trying hard then? They trying harder now?

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[Quickie]

True, the fatality rate for serious/critical cases = #death / # total, but this rate cannot be actually calculated before all cases are resolved, one way or another. So to take a snapshot I used #death over three days/# closed serious/critical cases over three days. As I said in the original post, this is a very rough calculation, inaccurate when the time to recovery for serious/critical cases and time to death are different. I used a 3 day calculation rather than the total to-date numbers because I'm more interested the current trend given the greatly expanded medical capacity in Wuhan. A 7 day calculation is probably better but I'm just too lazy.

A better measure would be the "daily death" / "daily cured" as these 2 variables add up directly to the cumulative death and cumulative cured. I haven't checked but I suspect the rate of decrease of the daily critical cases is higher than that of the daily cured.