A follow up to the above link our good friend Capitan @supercat provided regarding the intelligent and INNOVATIVE use of AI in predicting future Covid-19 cases. The lead author is an American Doctor, Senior Vice-President of one of Southern California’s largest independent physician associations. I'll highlight the Big Picture commentary included in the article:
Big picture
China is smart to be taking these findings and the resulting antibody technology to the next level. The country is enrolling cohorts of Chinese in antibody studies where they regularly look at antibody levels and when, on average, the levels of antibodies in the general population start to dip. This is done by aggregating antibody data into a central database. Of course, antibody levels in the population at large do not necessarily dictate a specific person’s antibody levels, but by measuring at the population level, authorities can better predict the likelihood of a community surge and thereby prepare healthcare workers and health facilities, while also knowing when to start encouraging mitigation behaviors such as masking, vaccination, and social distancing. Thus, even though China has significantly reduced restrictions by eliminating lockdowns for the time being, that does not mean the country is taking a ‘free-for-all’ approach to monitoring. Instead, officials are developing calculated measures to sophisticatedly track the spread of the virus using new technology and centralized data collection.
Another way China is monitoring cases is by translating web searches into powerful predictive algorithms. That way, whenever someone searches a specific word that triggers an alert - such as ‘fever’ - the system collects those data. Then, when those key searches reach a certain number, the government can be alerted that there might be a new surge coming. Search engine mining is not a new technology, but when layered with other novel data collection measures, like data migration maps - which track large movements of people - the Chinese government can begin to paint an accurate picture of future COVID-19 case development.
This is important because historical models that other countries have used to predict when future case surges will hit are not necessarily directly applicable to China. In part, this is because the SARS-COV-2 variants that are circulating have changed substantially since a large country was infected on the scale that people in China were infected during the last two months. This makes older predictive models less useful, because not only has the virus itself changed, but the R-zero - the number of subsequent infections likely to result from one infection - has shifted as well. Additionally, the Chinese population still lacks the herd immunity present in other countries, which compounds the problem further.
To understand new changes in viral patterns, China’s own CDC has invested in developing genetic analytics to detect both changes in viral variants and to detect suspected cases more quickly, reducing the time needed to do this from 55 minutes to 27 seconds. Furthermore, there is now infrared artificial intelligence (AI) technology that can be used to screen the body temperatures of large numbers of people and identify those who may have fevers.
China would be wise to continue on its path of leveraging innovation not only to predict and mitigate future surges, but also to treat the sick more effectively with evidenced-based treatments - many of which are supported by AI, data science, and novel technology.
China’s COVID-19 crisis - Recovering as situation evolves - Article - The Yuan
Big picture
China is smart to be taking these findings and the resulting antibody technology to the next level. The country is enrolling cohorts of Chinese in antibody studies where they regularly look at antibody levels and when, on average, the levels of antibodies in the general population start to dip. This is done by aggregating antibody data into a central database. Of course, antibody levels in the population at large do not necessarily dictate a specific person’s antibody levels, but by measuring at the population level, authorities can better predict the likelihood of a community surge and thereby prepare healthcare workers and health facilities, while also knowing when to start encouraging mitigation behaviors such as masking, vaccination, and social distancing. Thus, even though China has significantly reduced restrictions by eliminating lockdowns for the time being, that does not mean the country is taking a ‘free-for-all’ approach to monitoring. Instead, officials are developing calculated measures to sophisticatedly track the spread of the virus using new technology and centralized data collection.
Another way China is monitoring cases is by translating web searches into powerful predictive algorithms. That way, whenever someone searches a specific word that triggers an alert - such as ‘fever’ - the system collects those data. Then, when those key searches reach a certain number, the government can be alerted that there might be a new surge coming. Search engine mining is not a new technology, but when layered with other novel data collection measures, like data migration maps - which track large movements of people - the Chinese government can begin to paint an accurate picture of future COVID-19 case development.
This is important because historical models that other countries have used to predict when future case surges will hit are not necessarily directly applicable to China. In part, this is because the SARS-COV-2 variants that are circulating have changed substantially since a large country was infected on the scale that people in China were infected during the last two months. This makes older predictive models less useful, because not only has the virus itself changed, but the R-zero - the number of subsequent infections likely to result from one infection - has shifted as well. Additionally, the Chinese population still lacks the herd immunity present in other countries, which compounds the problem further.
To understand new changes in viral patterns, China’s own CDC has invested in developing genetic analytics to detect both changes in viral variants and to detect suspected cases more quickly, reducing the time needed to do this from 55 minutes to 27 seconds. Furthermore, there is now infrared artificial intelligence (AI) technology that can be used to screen the body temperatures of large numbers of people and identify those who may have fevers.
China would be wise to continue on its path of leveraging innovation not only to predict and mitigate future surges, but also to treat the sick more effectively with evidenced-based treatments - many of which are supported by AI, data science, and novel technology.
China’s COVID-19 crisis - Recovering as situation evolves - Article - The Yuan
