Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

daifo

Captain
Registered Member
Any figures on death rate of a really bad season of the FLU or car accidents in China? Maybe that is something covid will have to be compare to for understanding "acceptable" deaths?
 

Quan8410

Junior Member
Registered Member
If that's true, then they haven't done China any favour at all. China's exit from COVID Zero must be entirely on China's own terms, without distraction, and based completely on scientific and other empirical evidence with a large margin of error. Allowing the CIA to affect it by pushing it sooner or later than planned will both incurr costs to China.

Most of the protests come from university students. University students are the one that are extremely prone to protest and liberalism due to highly exposed to foreign media. Banning foreign media should be the first step to reduce foreign influence on students, either it is newspaper or cinemas. There is also a move to make foreign languages optional, which I think is the right move. In the long term, China should not allow the use of foreign languages in their territory. China will be number one soon and using barbarian languages is a disgraceful acts, considering what the barbarians had done in the past (century of humiliation).
 

Petrolicious88

Senior Member
Registered Member
Most of the protests come from university students. University students are the one that are extremely prone to protest and liberalism due to highly exposed to foreign media. Banning foreign media should be the first step to reduce foreign influence on students, either it is newspaper or cinemas. There is also a move to make foreign languages optional, which I think is the right move. In the long term, China should not allow the use of foreign languages in their territory. China will be number one soon and using barbarian languages is a disgraceful acts, considering what the barbarians had done in the past (century of humiliation).
Lol, please stop. What's your plan here? Pretending to be pro china (you are not doing a very good job at), while wishing china to self isolate and destroy itself.
 
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supercat

Major
Just in I think
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tldr: study from feb 22 to sep 22, individuals 60 years and older
Compared with 3 doses of mRNA vaccine, those who received 3 doses of CoronaVac or BBIBP-CorV were at higher risk of symptomatic infection (IRR 1.13; 95% CI 1.09–1.16), hospitalisation (IRR 1.52; 95% CI 1.36–1.71) and severe COVID-19 (IRR 1.90; 95% CI 1.45–2.47)

4 mRNA vaccine doses provided additional protection against infection, hospitalisation and severe Covid, however, 4 doses of inactivated whole-virus vaccine or a combination of both vaccine types did not confer additional risk reduction against infection or hospitalisation compared with 3 mRNA vaccine doses
If you look at table 1, and the "Incidence per million person-days", you will see that CoronaVac and BBIBP-CorV prevent hospitalization and severe disease effectively, albeit somewhat less effective than mRNA vaccines, they should be good enough to prevent the overburden of the healthcare system. One should understand that CoronaVac and BBIBP-CorV do not have to be as effective as mRNA to serve their purpose - the prevention of hospitalization and severe disease, and the overwhelming of the healthcare system.

Any figures on death rate of a really bad season of the FLU or car accidents in China? Maybe that is something covid will have to be compare to for understanding "acceptable" deaths?
The situation in Guangzhou is somewhat encouraging so far:
 

MelianPretext

New Member
Registered Member
Although the best outcome is obviously hoped for by all, relaxing dynamic zero-COVID at this time is a mistake and it’s disheartening to see the central government seemingly concede to societal and economic pressures on this front, pressures which, arguably, were nowhere near critical mass. Just last month, it had been reiterated that "决不能造成放松疫情防控,甚至放开、“躺平”的误读” and this recent shift seems to fly in the face of that position. Loosening COVID controls has always been one of those instant gratification policy moves that everyone approves of - until half a year later, when the virus has stormed through the vulnerable age brackets, hobbled the medical system infrastructure and swathes of the population are silently stuck with varying degrees of Long COVID. That’s always been the difficulty with selling the idea of COVID restrictions to societies across the world: the concept of sacrificing the short-term for the long-term.

The tone of benign neglect under which the central government is apparently permitting this relaxation to take place at the moment, where sub-level jurisdictions are seemingly setting their own laissez-faire policies contradictory to November's “进一步优化防控工作的二十条措施" is bound to be disastrous unless inter-provincial border restrictions are unlikely installed. As the lesson of COVID at the global scale should have plainly shown, the incompetence of the lowest common denominator will ruin the collective efforts of everyone else. This concern is especially pronounced when they’ve decided to enact this in the middle of winter and before the Spring Festival, the world’s largest annual mass-travel event.

Although the escalation of this policy change in the aftermath of those “protests” make it difficult to not see them as somewhat correlatively reactive, "按闹分配” as one would say, the idea that Chinese people are somehow gullible or naive enough to blame the protestors for the ensuing consequences of relaxation rather than the government is obviously dismissible. Foreign media is already releasing propaganda along the new narrative angle of “China rightfully caved in to the insuppressible voice of the people but now the incompetent government is botching the re-opening process."

I will say that, going through the domestic forums, this relaxation is unsurprisingly being taken as a slap in the face, especially by COVID vulnerable groups who understandably feel like they're now being left out in the dust. Domestic compatriots, the quiet majority, made massive personal sacrifices over the past three years of pandemic restrictions, doing their duty for the common good in silence, all the while as the malcontents who thought they were unique in their hardships screamed about zero-COVID oppression endlessly to foreign media. People defended the government policy and upheld the scientific approach only to have domestic media like Xinhua and Global Times now about-face and downplaying Omicron’s pathogenicity for seemingly PR purposes, government officials in Guangzhou apparently spreading Western fake news talking points like “COVID = Flu” and having to suffer the gloating Zhihu liberals now trolling that anyone not supporting reopening is "against the government line" and an "unpatriotic reactionary." This whiplash in policy communication is causing unnecessary civic nihilism in a society already subjected to relentless “lie flat” apathy narrative pressures.

The frustration in sentiments like these cropping up is frankly understandable:
短短数天,防控路线从严防病毒扩散变成严防“加码”;大白们从为抗疫无私奉献的模范变成人人喊打的过街老鼠;核酸检测从筛查潜在感染者的有力措施变成“敛财工具”;方舱医院从发挥我们国家优势、集中力量攻坚克难对疫情打歼灭战的典型代表变成了“资源浪费,应该喊停”……下一个要被转变的将会是什么?

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That said, this was an inevitability if epidemiological conditions failed to improve and I suppose this relaxation of policy indicates that the government no longer believes the material conditions of COVID-19, whether the theory of virulence degradation or innovations in medical intervention, are set to improve in the short to possibly medium term, as there’s no reason why they wouldn't have continued to hold out if so. Since permitting the risk of endemic COVID emergence in the world's last COVID-free stronghold is a genie that can't be put back in the bottle, the logistics of enacting this before the Spring Festival and the absence of a concerted push for synchronized approaches amongst the sub-level jurisdictions by central government coordination are hopefully works in progress.
 

tokenanalyst

Brigadier
Registered Member
Just in I think
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tldr: study from feb 22 to sep 22, individuals 60 years and older
Compared with 3 doses of mRNA vaccine, those who received 3 doses of CoronaVac or BBIBP-CorV were at higher risk of symptomatic infection (IRR 1.13; 95% CI 1.09–1.16), hospitalisation (IRR 1.52; 95% CI 1.36–1.71) and severe COVID-19 (IRR 1.90; 95% CI 1.45–2.47)

4 mRNA vaccine doses provided additional protection against infection, hospitalisation and severe Covid, however, 4 doses of inactivated whole-virus vaccine or a combination of both vaccine types did not confer additional risk reduction against infection or hospitalisation compared with 3 mRNA vaccine doses
Lets see out of

197,657 hospitalizations /124,822,336 mrna vaccinated =0.15%
4136 hospitalizations /2,635,200 inactivated vaccinated = 0.15%

1439 severe cases /197,657 Hospitalizations 3x mrna vaccinated = 0.72% severity
57 severe cases /4136 Hospitalizations 3x inactivated vaccinated = 1.37% Severity

*Severe cases does not mean death rate.

*The data may be bias because they sample more people with MRNA.
 

alfreddango

Junior Member
Registered Member
just to be clear, I did not post that paper to disparage Chinese vaccines, I did it to provide more relevant data for discussion

the numbers look decent, coupled with a mask mandate of some sort and it should allow reopening without excessive strain on the healthcare system
 

tokenanalyst

Brigadier
Registered Member
just to be clear, I did not post that paper to disparage Chinese vaccines, I did it to provide more relevant data for discussion

the numbers look decent, coupled with a mask mandate of some sort and it should allow reopening without excessive strain on the healthcare system
A mask mandate could be necessary as could slow the spread of the virus, even surgical masks.
 
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