Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
I appreciate you taking the time to elaborate your concern.

The answer to your ideal option 2.3 scenario (e.g. "no vaccination + no COVID alternative") was already addressed was in a previous post a few pages back. It is repeated below with clarifications, see #1 bullet point with citation:

  1. 0.009% risk of myocarditis among UN-vaccinated without COVID. (
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    ) (Note: this is baseline risk in general population)
  2. 3.24X higher risk or 0.026% risk of myocarditis among vaccinated without COVID
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  3. ??? risk of myocarditis among vaccinated with COVID.
  4. 18.28X higher risk or 0.17% risk of myocarditis among UN-vaccinated infected with COVID.
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The #1 bullet is baseline risk in general population without COVID and no vaccination, which answer you question about option 2.3 scenario. It's not zero, but it close to zero. If you think 0.009% is basically zero, then I can argue 3.24X higher risk of vaccine-related myocarditis is also close to zero, since 324% of a tiny number is still a tiny number.

In epidemiology, we say there is a statistically significant difference in the risk of myocarditis, but it might not be clinically meaningful difference because these numbers are so tiny that they don't make a real difference in the real world. Even myocarditis among UN-vaccinated with COVID is pretty damn small at 0.17%.


To be fair, I already addressed the "No vaccination with No COVID" scenario a few posts back. See first #1 bullet point.
  1. 0.009% risk of myocarditis among UN-vaccinated without COVID. (
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    ) (Note: this is baseline risk in general population)
  2. 3.24X higher risk or 0.026% risk of myocarditis among vaccinated without COVID
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  3. 18.28X higher risk or 0.17% risk of myocarditis among UN-vaccinated infected with COVID.
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You are free to critique the numbers. They show a non-zero risk of myocarditis even for UN-vaccinated and no COVID scenario. Yes, vaccines offer statistically significantly higher risk, and COVID offers even more risk, but overall, these numbers are pretty damn small, so they aren't really clinically meaningful difference in grand scheme of things. Look how tiny these numbers are.
@Phead128 have you seen this study coming out from Israel? I understand that this study hasn't been peer reviewed but the findings of the experts here are going to excite people that are most ambivalent about these western covid-19 vaccines. What's your take on this study?

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Here's an opinion from a purported medical licensed doctor on this specific study.

 

Phead128

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
CDC researchers examined March 2020 through January 2021 data from Premier Healthcare Database Special COVID-19 Release, a U.S. hospital-based administrative database of healthcare encounters from more than 900 hospitals.

Eight things to know:
1. Myocarditis inpatient encounters were 42.3 percent higher in 2020 (4,560) than in 2019 (3,205).

2. The risk for myocarditis was 0.146 percent among COVID-19 patients and 0.009 percent among patients who were not diagnosed with COVID-19.

The article isn't talking about the general population, it's talking about people who went to a hospital between March 2020 and January 2021. AKA during the height of the pandemic. Your 0.009% figure is NOT a baseline risk for general population.

You are correct, the 0.009% is among patients without COVID diagnosis who visited the hospital, whereas the baseline risk for general population in U.S. is unknown and very difficult to ascertain.

This article here estimates cases of myocarditis to be 10-20 cases per 100,000 persons, or about 0.0001% to 0.0002%:

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You missed a critical aspect here:

The 10-20 cases for 100,000 persons is the estimated world-wide incidence, not the overall incidence for the United States, which your article says is unknown, underdiagnosed, and very difficult to ascertain as many cases are subclinical. It also mentions that some estimates, 1-5% of all patients with acute viral infections may involve the myocardium. Basically, we don't know.... but it's a tiny small ass number, whether 0.009% or 0.0001%.

This is 45-90 times less likely than your 0.009% figure. Which means that a risk of 0.026% of myocarditits from the pfizer vaccine is 130-260 times higher than no vaccination and no covid!

This is a perfect example of why statistically significant difference (45-90X or even 130-260X higher risk) is not the same as clinically meaningful difference (only 0.0089% increase in absolute risk).

You can be 1,000X higher relative risk, but if the absolute risk increase is 0.01%, then it's not clinically meaningful. It's a rounding error. You can multiply a tiny number by a huge integer, but it's still ends up as a tiny number. The absolute risk is miniscule. Look at an 0.0089% increase risk.

That's why you can't look at only the Relative Risk, but the Absolute Risk increase. Is there a big difference between 0.009% vs. 0.0001%? It's a rounding error. So it's not appropriate to fearmonger about an 130-260X risk ratio, when the denominator is an infinitstimally small number to begin with.

In any case, if you get covid, you probably have other things to worry about than just myocarditis! The actual risk calculation should be:

Risk of severe adverse reaction from vaccine

VS

(Risk of of getting covid) * (Risk of severe to critical symptoms from covid)

Covid has approximately 20% chance of severe to critical symptoms. If we assume 0.026% to be the risk of severe adverse reaction from pfizer, then 0.13% is your threshold. If you estimate your chance of getting covid to be higher than 0.13%, then you should get the pfizer shot. If you estimate your chance of getting covid to be lower than 0.13%, then you logically shouldn't get the pfizer shot.

Translation: Using 0.13% as a threshold, you have to be >99.97% confident of never never getting COVID, in order to avoid the Pfizer shot. :cool:

I agree with you, if I am almost 100% confident that I will never get COVID, I would avoid the Pfizer shot too! However, @taxiya is in Europe, and I am in the US, so there is an non-zero chance (may take few years or more) that I will eventually get infected by one variant or another. Maybe you are in China, so you believe the lockdowns can eradicate the disease and you are 100% confident of never getting COVID for the rest of your life. More power to you.

Then this conversation transitions to: Can these disease be truly eradicated? Can you be >99.97% certain you will never get COVID for rest of your life? I personally think it's going to be endemic like influenza and never go away. That's just my opinion.
 

Phead128

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
@Phead128 have you seen this study coming out from Israel? I understand that this study hasn't been peer reviewed but the findings of the experts here are going to excite people that are most ambivalent about these western covid-19 vaccines. What's your take on this study?

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Here's an opinion from a purported medical licensed doctor on this specific study.


This study has not been peer-reviewed yet, but here is some analysis from my alma mater:

Overall, infections were very rare in all of the groups studied, and only 1.5% or less of study participants were infected in any of the analysis groups, regardless of how immunity was derived; there were no deaths reported in any group.
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The study only included those who survived initial COVID infection so it presents a skewed picture of the benefits and risks of vaccination. Breakthrough infections maybe accelerated by potential confounders like social distancing (lack thereof) and mask-wearing (lack thereof) among vaccinated individuals once the mask mandates were removed. They admitted this in the limitation section, but they can't assume the unvaccinated and vaccinated were engaging in the same health behaviors.

In conclusion, I would not take this as an endorsement to go get COVID rather than vaccinated, since only people who survived through initial COVID infection was eligible for this study and no deaths was examined.
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Phead128

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Just curious @solarz @vincent if SinoPharm, WalVax, Everest Medicine (all Chinese companies) who are investing billions to produce an mRNA vaccine, will you take a Chinese mRNA vaccine if it had similar risk (0.026% or less) of myocarditis/pericarditis as Pfizer/Moderna, or would you continue using traditional inactivated vaccines? This isn't a gotcha question, just genuinely curious if it's an anti-Western thing or just an anti-mRNA thing or a pro-China thing. I mean, I would personally take a Chinese mRNA over Pfizer because I want to support China as well, assuming equal risk levels of side effects.
 

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Just curious @solarz @vincent if SinoPharm, WalVax, Everest Medicine (all Chinese companies) who are investing billions to produce an mRNA vaccine, will you take a Chinese mRNA vaccine if it had similar risk (0.026% or less) of myocarditis/pericarditis as Pfizer/Moderna, or would you continue using traditional inactivated vaccines? This isn't a gotcha question, just genuinely curious if it's an anti-Western thing or just an anti-mRNA thing or a pro-China thing. I mean, I would personally take a Chinese mRNA over Pfizer because I want to support China as well, assuming equal risk levels of side effects.
Why do you automatically assume people who refused to take mRNA vaccines are doing so becuase they are from the “West”?
 

Quickie

Colonel
The early outbreak was mostly among the immigrant workers. The current rise in cases in Singapore is in the general population. There was a news report posted here previously saying that around 40% of the infected cases were fully vaccinated.

Let me correct myself. The 40% figure would be the percentage of the vaccinated people that would be exposed to the virus and get infected. That figure comes from the reported efficacy of 60% (or around that).

The actual percentage of infected cases that were found to be vaccinated would depend on the vaccinated percentage of the population at the time.
 

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
This study has not been peer-reviewed yet, but here is some analysis from my alma mater:

Overall, infections were very rare in all of the groups studied, and only 1.5% or less of study participants were infected in any of the analysis groups, regardless of how immunity was derived; there were no deaths reported in any group.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
The study only included those who survived initial COVID infection so it presents a skewed picture of the benefits and risks of vaccination. Breakthrough infections maybe accelerated by potential confounders like social distancing (lack thereof) and mask-wearing (lack thereof) among vaccinated individuals once the mask mandates were removed. They admitted this in the limitation section, but they can't assume the unvaccinated and vaccinated were engaging in the same health behaviors.

In conclusion, I would not take this as an endorsement to go get COVID rather than vaccinated, since only people who survived through initial COVID infection was eligible for this study and no deaths was examined.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


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Thanks for that informative reply. Appreciate the time you took with your response and research.
 
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