Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Not trying to defend the vaccines used here, just cautioning on how data is intepreted.

A map of cases is not indicative of the efficacy of a vaccine if the numbers exposed and infected are not compared.

eg; the MINDSville cluster was reported as 20+ cases within a facility where almost all residents and workers have been vaccinated ... which was therefore used by the anti-govt, anti-vax, anti-whatever IBs to fan the flames. Until you realise that the facility houses about 300 and that the infection rate of 10% is therefore about in line with an efficacy rate of approx. 90%
That’s not how efficacy is calculated.
 

Heliox

Junior Member
Registered Member
That’s not how efficacy is calculated.

You got me there, careless use of terminology.

But I'll still stand by my assertion that the figures aren't as alarming as some will take it to be viz vaccine effectiveness.

What is of interest to me in a Covid cluster map is that it's a quick visualisation of the effectiveness of the efforts to identify and contain the spread of the infection (based on the number of unlinked clusters and lengths of infection chains)
 
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KenC

Junior Member
Registered Member
Taiwan mortality rate at 4% is twice world's average. The number of cases has been underestimated is given as there is lack of mass testing and the high mortality rate.

Also cremation increased by 55% over same period last year. Even mortality rate might be underestimated. On top of that more than 178 have died of adverse reaction from AZ vaccine.

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Quickie

Colonel
You got me there, careless use of terminology.

But I'll still stand by my assertion that the figures aren't as alarming as some will take it to be viz vaccine effectiveness.

What is of interest to me in a Covid cluster map is that it's a quick visualisation of the effectiveness of the efforts to identify and contain the spread of the infection (based on the number of unlinked clusters and lengths of infection chains)

The effectiveness is very likely less than 90% (I would say probably must less than that) since it's likely only a small percentage of the population pool is exposed to the virus especially if the infected persons are quickly found and quarantined.
 
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Heliox

Junior Member
Registered Member
The effectiveness is less than 90% (I would say probably must less than that) since it's likely only a small percentage of the population pool is exposed to the virus especially if the infected persons are quickly found and quarantined.

First case was diagnosed on Monday, mass testing of all residents and staff revealed a further 22 cases by Thursday, bringing the total to 27 over 3 days (Monday evening to Thursday evening). The number of infected tops out at about slightly over 30 after a week. I take that as indicative that no quarantine/isolation effect on the initial numbers.

Your guess is as good as mine as to whether there was
a) a small percentage were exposed and a very high percentage succumbed or
b) down the spectrum to the other end where a large part of the population got exposed and only 10% succumbed.

The truth is probably somewhere in between but we don't have the data to infer that ... which is the original point that we can't infer from a cluster map.
 

NiuBiDaRen

Brigadier
Registered Member
Singapore media is essentially Singapore state media. Which is therefore a soft indication of the political slant of the current cabinet.

To give you an idea of the dumbassery within this cabinet (which had in past generations successfully walked a fine path balancing relations between China and the West)
- The 2 officially endorsed vaccines are both mRNA (Pfizer and Moderna)
- Singapore has not officially approved Sinovac, AZ and J&J but has recently given approval for own-cost, own-cost usage.
- In the last week since the first dose of Sinovac rolled out, the uptake has been very good. Sensing the groundswell demand for non-mRNA vaccine - The SG govt has just announced they have signed a procurement deal with Novovax :rolleyes:

If you wanted to slap China in the face with a cold, wet fish, you couldn't do a better job than by doing this.
iinm, Novovax is US, has yet to achieve regulatory approval and this despite the track record of 1 billion Sinovac doses having been administered globally with hardly any hoohah about side effects (which I believe the west have been digging for). The efficacy may be debatable but to some, it's not about the efficacy, it's about the perceived safety of the vaccine tech.

I look forward to more AFVs being impounded. :D
Time for LKY to rise up from the grave and send Lee Hsien Loong to reeducation camp.

"Even from my sickbed, even if you are going to lower me into the grave and I feel that something is going wrong, I will get up." - Lee Kuan Yew
 
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