it takes many years to get up to 100. I don't think there are 100 J-20's now. the best thing for the US to do is to just stop cooperating on C919 now, it'll likely either slow or stop its production for at least a few years until China can replace all the parts and redo the tests.
COMAC C919
- Thread starter Deino
- Start date
Hope US does that. China will lose 2-3 years but mid to long term it will catalyze things China shouldn't wait for the US to sanction Comac. It should start building a C919 version based on a civilian version of the WS-20 or even the WS-10, and domestic avionics and other parts now. When the Boeing 707 first came out in 1958, it was based on turbojet engines, and then later in the 1960s it changed to low bypass turbofan engines. High bypass turbofan engines did not come online until the 1970s. So the worst that can happen is that China has a plane with worse commercial parameters than Western ones and it has to subsidize its airlines to buy them.
The alternative is to continue to buy stuff from Boeing, Airbus, and GE but remember that whenever China buys a Western plane or even a C919 or ARJ21, it subsidizes not only Western aerospace R&D but also U.S. defense contractors like Honeywell and Raytheon. These companies use that money to do R&D and build weapons targeted at killing Chinese people. So you are literally subsidizing the people who want to kill you.* How that is better than subsidizing your own airlines I don't know.
*By the way, anytime any one of us buys a ticket to an airline that uses Boeing planes we are doing the same thing indirectly. We can't escape it.
The alternative is to continue to buy stuff from Boeing, Airbus, and GE but remember that whenever China buys a Western plane or even a C919 or ARJ21, it subsidizes not only Western aerospace R&D but also U.S. defense contractors like Honeywell and Raytheon. These companies use that money to do R&D and build weapons targeted at killing Chinese people. So you are literally subsidizing the people who want to kill you.* How that is better than subsidizing your own airlines I don't know.
*By the way, anytime any one of us buys a ticket to an airline that uses Boeing planes we are doing the same thing indirectly. We can't escape it.
AssassinsMace
Lieutenant General
I say it many of times in here that China doesn't need outside markets to sell Chinese airliners. It doesn't need to be accepted nor does it have to pass their authorities to fly over their countries. China just needs the domestic market to buy it and they have no say over it. China is the largest market for new airliners in the world. China just has to buy it for domestic purposes and Boeing and Airbus will go bankrupt. That's why all the talk and panic in the West. If they're so assured it won't pass muster (which is irrelevant), then they have nothing to worry about or have to say anything. But they are saying something because they're in panic China won't be buying their airliners. Remember the FAA was corrupt and allowed the 737 Max 8 to take shortcuts and fly because Boeing had influence. They already failed being trustworthy so you think they would give Chinese airliners an honest evaluation? They'll fail Chinese airliners solely to eliminate the competition not because it's not air-worthy.
I'd prefer to go the Airbus route with Russia. Russia already has good enough engines, materials, structures. China can still buy time to develop their industry, while still contributing with components. It also would allow the two countries to share their markets, and not compete over other potential markets. The CR929 is a perfect example. Why not go with the UAC, which is much more competitive then the C919.
I will be very frank, the reason why not to go with Russia is what I perceived as 1) Russian pride, 2) Huge diff in market potential. There are a lot of ripe corporation areas between Russia and China but Russian do not want to. Prime example amphibious ships. Russia is perfectly fine buying one from France but will not even consider 071 or 075 from China. After all these years, Russia still cannot bring itself to corporate with China on equal footing. And to be frank, Chinese and Russian markets are so unequal it is not worth for China to be even equal partners with Russia on CR929. CR929 will be a single aircraft project and this corporation will not turn into an airbus like initiative. As I said 1) Russia still sees itself somehow superior, 2) Chinese market is 10X of that of Russia can offer.
Years ago I was actually hoping for an Asian Airbus where China, Russia, Korea, and Japan coming together but it is just impossible.
I am not sure why you think Russia should consider 071 or 075?. The built half hall of Mistral and other half they were learning hands on from French. and they will implement those methods of construction in there ship building. it is not related to amphibious ships but more related to general ship building. Infact at the end deal was profitable as they manage to sell it to Egypt. (which would be hard at time if it was built in China).
I agree Chinese and Russia corporate structures are not equal as Russian has much more influence inside EU to get complex things done.
its the same approach to developing aviation products.
AssassinsMace
Lieutenant General
I'm sure Americans think the world being able to fly to the US is the pinnacle of success hence why they want everyone to think China's domestic airliners will fail. No, an airliner's bulk business will be from the domestic market. No need to fly to the US hence why China's domestic airliner does not need the US and Europe's approval. And the same can be said for another country that doesn't want to buy the more expensive Western airliner. Most airliners sold are regional airliners not long haul airliners. That's why the US and Europe talk about it despite how they believe China's passenger planes are inferior. China can kill the bulk of their business.
This is exactly what the C919 project is doing. Airbus did the same to compete against Boeing, and it took them 30 yrs to achieve.
There is a reason why China is using so many Western companies. (Among others) Its because these companies are working on their specialised industry sub-fields for many decades and have created their own "world-class" management system for manufacturing, QA, engineering processes etc.
A company doesn't just create a new thing out of thin air. Necessary processes and procedures must be in place to create and engineer new products.
I am guessing that the Chinese suppliers can create working (but not world class) products, however their internal processes are not mature enough to ensure a 100% reliability.
I mean this is the commercial aircraft business. We are talking about millions of people flying safely. Even a slight reliability issue could be devastating for the industry.
So, it is good that China is developing their plane step by step. First use foreign supplier to get experience (processes, manufacturing, QA etc) and after 5-10 years start replacing them with the (now) domestic replacements