COMAC C919

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PandaAI

Junior Member
Registered Member
ACuriousPLAFan said:
At this point, COMAC should forget about gaining certifications from FAA and EASA for their C919 altogether. Neither the US nor the EU are ever willing to see COMAC challenge their darlings, Boeing and Airbus. They would rather block access and sales (the US) or drag out the certification for as long as possible (the EU) just to make COMAC's life as insufferable as possible, perhaps even "better" by forcing COMAC to kill the C919 and abandon any future airliner projects that posses even the slightest threats against their duopoly.

Hence, trying to use any foreign-based/sourced components in the C919 in exchange for their certification is rather moot at this point. China better get going with efforts on full localizing of their aviation sector as much and as effectively as possible.

Yes, I'm sounding very pessimistic, but that's how things are. Though I'm not sure whether there are people in COMAC, AECC and CAAC who still refuse to acknowledge reality...

Come on, Beijing! Sometimes, what people do lack are some canings!
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After what happened to Huawei, every Chinese company should have made plans for full domestic substitution of foreign parts. These big state-owned companies are too comfortable and lack urgency. Look at how Huawei overcame their difficulties.
 
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RoastGooseHKer

Junior Member
Registered Member
tamsen_ikard said:
But those few years there will be a complete halt in production and thus China will be dependent on Boeing and Airbus. US has again kneecapped China for atleast a few years. They keep doing this and China is still so complecent. Its sad to see actually. This is the atleast the Coma of COMAC for the next few years.
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China is complacent because economics. The US has the same problem with rare earth and post-1991 defence industries. If we were on a perfect world of free trade free from the structure of international politics, every country would follow the logic of comparative advantage. However, in the real world, national security often interferes with and decimate comparative advantage by catching/halting the market with nasty surprises. It means countries (especially great powers) would keep trading for the last penny until national security actually bites and cut off their means of trade, forcing them to grudging adopt import-substitution, industrial policies, etc. This explains why COMAC would prefer importing even the last fastener from more advanced and scaled foreign sources until the other side actually stops selling. Only then would there be incentives for painful change and reform.
 
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henrik

Senior Member
Registered Member
PandaAI said:
After what happened to Huawei, every Chinese company should have made plans for full domestic substitution of foreign parts. These big state-owned companies are too comfortable and lack urgency. Look at how Huawei overcame their difficulties.
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It is because the big guy was complacent. He did not give the right orders to the state owned companies.
 
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leibowitz

Junior Member
GiantPanda said:
In theory, China can fly with the CJ1000 on a C919 testing prototype even now. The CJ1000 had been tested flown on a Y-20 FTB for a few years now. But you won't want to put that thing into a production aircraft without thousands of hours under various regimes.

You can have the most flawless program but you still need to put in hours in the thousands and that will take years if you follow protocol. Geopolitics and outside factors can always allow you to skip steps and just put that thing up. But does China need to? That market will ALWAYS be there with Western embargo. Just get things right and COMAC will have its share of the market.

To be honest, unless Airbus is also embargoed and Chinese aviation is up shit's creek without any airliners (like Russia) then maybe you would break protocol and rush a new engine to market.

Otherwise, let Airbus and that big beautiful HSR network deal with any capacity issues that might come with COMAC being late 5 or 7 years.
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Why would installing a CJ1000 on the COMAC today affect its perceived airworthiness later though?
 
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Michael90

Junior Member
Registered Member
henrik said:
It is because the big guy was complacent. He did not give the right orders to the state owned companies.
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If even after everything that's be going on since the trade war and sanctions started in 2017 he still didn't forsee how things will be playing out or the reality of the threat then he ought to remove and replaced by someone new. That reeks of incompetence.
 
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Michael90

Junior Member
Registered Member
lcloo said:
Nah, it will be Huawei moment for COMAC, or the Tian Gong Space station moment for China Space. A few years set back is nothing if COMAC will be emerged stronger than ever after a few short years. Boeing will be down due to lost of a very large and important market.

US ban on engines will aslo make other countries think twice on buying Boeing planes. They might turn to Airbus but then Airbus engines still contains US technologies. Only COMAC planes will be totally free from being banned after they achieved 100% non-US parts or 100% non-US technology content.
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Agree, but it will be an even more painful and time consuming journey for COMAC. Civil aviation is one of the pearl of every country industrial prowess and the height of their technological/technical/managerial capabilities etc. Why do you think there are only 2 main players(Beoing of the US AND AIRBUS FROM Europe led by France) in civil aerospace industry globally? If it was as easy as space industry or telecom/semi industry then you will several more players in this field. However, that's not the case of civil aviation industry.
I believe COMAC and mostly Chinese leader should have recognised this fact and since the trade and sanctions war started in 2017 by the US and orders should have been secretly given them to prioritise homegrown projects on a aar footing while still carrying on with cooperation with western suppliers. If that was done I believe after 8years today COMAC would have been in a much better shape and probably have more Chinese homegrown parts ready on this project. However it seems that was not the case and homegrown solutions were not as prioritised as much as they should have given the threat. Shows some sort of complacency by the leadership not just political but also industrial. Well, guess they would learn their lessons now, better late than never as they say lol
Make no mistake though it will take COMAC a very long time to be able to indegenised its airplanes. Civil aviation is not easy and is very safety critical apart from the technological /engineering and technical challenges. Just look at the fact that even with all the cooperation/TOT from Western companies for C919 COMAC has still been slow in producing C919 in enough numbers. I believe since the beginning of the year they have delivered barely 3 planes. Shows just how complex and difficult this field is. So you guys shouldn't underestimate the difficulties. It will China decades(if everything goes well for them) to really master this field and stand shoulder to shoulder with AIRBUS AND BEOING.
 
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