COMAC C919

ACuriousPLAFan said:

Also, at this point, COMAC should forget about gaining certifications from FAA and EASA. Neither the US nor the EU are ever willing to see COMAC challenge their darlings, Boeing and Airbus. They would rather block access and sales (the US) or drag out the certification for as long as possible (the EU) just to make COMAC's life as insufferable as possible, possibly even forcing COMAC and China to kill the C919 and abandon any future airliner projects that posses even slight threats against their duopoly altogether.

So trying to use any foreign-based/sourced components in the C919 in exchange for their certification is rather moot, at this point. Thus, China better get on with full localizing of their aviation sector as much and as effectively as possible.

Yes, I'm sounding very pessimistic, but that's how things are. Though I'm not sure whether there are people in COMAC, AECC and CAAC who still refuse to acknowledge reality...

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Chinese government action during Tariffs war shows, what they are thinking. so i m sure COMAC/AECC knew it, this ban was coming. remember what Guancha trio said, 100 percent made in China C919 coming.

everything has completed except CJ-1000A.. this engine need 33 different civil certificates. AECC just need to accelerate the process. that's it

RoastGooseHKer said:

I think this will take several years. But from an long-term industrial policy perspective, it is nonetheless a great start and kills any incentives within COMAC to cut corners by relying on imported components on C929 and future C919s.

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Lol This is something we already talked about here, and I clearly said the US will soon cut off engine supplies and it's other critical part China uses for the C919. Some said it was unlikely which I found funny, since many seem to forget the US has place China as its number 1 threat and rival this century and both countries are already in a trade war initiated by the US to halt China. If some Chinese still believe full cooperation with the US is possible then we can only wish them luck. Lol one would have thought they would have learned FROM. Russia's recent experience. Lol

China will have to develop all her own critical technology AND PRIORITISE THEM AT ALL COST. SANCTIONS AND EMBARGO WILL ONLY INCREASE WITH TIME AS THE US FEELS MORE THREATENED BY CHINA'S RISE, So expect things to get worse not better.
So it will be more and more untenable for China to be relying on any US software or technology going forward. Unfortunately the country will have to sacrifice alot to build her own entire eco-system by herself or in cooperation with countries they consider more friendly to them.
That's the price to pay for an aspiring rising world power who can challenge the incumbent power. Moreover, its nothing personal against China. that's just how the world has always functioned since the beginning of times. We saw it with Spain in the past, then Britain and France, then Britain/France and Germany, then US with Soviet Union and if we go far back in the past there were many such cases.
So China has to get ready for this battle. At least today's modern world is different and its unlikely for both sides to directly go to war but it will be more of a hybrid war and economic war. The only way China can avoid confrontation with the US Is to give up growing and moving up the value Chain, and we all know that's impossible. So it's inevitable. Remains to be seen if China will be ready for this this coming years/decade. Since this will necessitate a dramatic change in the country's economic, political, military and diplomatic doctrine, something that requires time to change.

China has been ready for this for at least 5 years, possibly 10. That's what the HSR network is for: sanction-proof, oil embargo-proof rapid, long distance domestic transportation.

GiantPanda said:

In theory, China can fly with the CJ1000 on a C919 testing prototype even now. The CJ1000 had been tested flown on a Y-20 FTB for a few years now. But you won't want to put that thing into a production aircraft without thousands of hours under various regimes.

You can have the most flawless program but you still need to put in hours in the thousands and that will take years if you follow protocol. Geopolitics and outside factors can always allow you to skip steps and just put that thing up. But does China need to? That market will ALWAYS be there with Western embargo. Just get things right and COMAC will have its share of the market.

To be honest, unless Airbus is also embargoed and Chinese aviation is up shit's creek without any airliners (like Russia) then maybe you would break protocol and rush a new engine to market.

Otherwise, let Airbus and that big beautiful HSR network deal with any capacity issues that might come with COMAC being late 5 or 7 years.

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Yes, the testing and certification must NOT be rushed. Any mishaps in a production aircraft will be used by the West and domestic hanjians against the Chinese civilian aircraft industry. The industry will be held back for many years to come.
It's better to be late than rush a flawed product out.

Well, Guancha said back in 2023 or aircraft last year that fully domestic C919 is due by 2027 which I assume mean fully ready for production. IMO it could be possible to have teams work around the clock to get all the certification done faster as before the project was mostly considered a backup project but at this point they should delicate all resource to this.

PS: if things has gone to shit already, can my dream of a C919 based ASW and AEWC aircraft finally come true.

iBBz said:

FINALLY! I have been waiting for this to happen for so long. Now China can come at Airbus and Boeing with a vengeance.

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You can come with a vengeance when you have fully independent replacement. Otherwise...vengeance will be very double-edged.

Distance from "almost where, can do it tomorrow" and "actually there" is quite long, when you really see the depth of the problem of cleaning aircraft down to the last bolt.

This is a problem, and this has deeper ramifications. If this happened, other known sanctions with American and European are just a matter of time. China isn't Iran nor even Russia, it's just impossible to sustain fleet so large on scavenging.

Gloire_bb said:

You can come with a vengeance when you have fully independent replacement. Otherwise...vengeance will be very double-edged.

Distance from "almost where, can do it tomorrow" and "actually there" is quite long, when you really see the depth of the problem of cleaning aircraft down to the last bolt.

This is a problem, and this has deeper ramifications. If this happened, other known sanctions with American and European are just a matter of time. China isn't Iran nor even Russia, it's just impossible to sustain fleet so large on scavenging.

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I doubt Airbus will stop selling to China nor will China ban both Airbus and Boeing, at best Boeing will be banned as a reciprocal action. As for the Boeing fleet, China will either eventually replace them with Airbus and domestic alternatives or manufacture domestic parts for them

Gloire_bb said:

You can come with a vengeance when you have fully independent replacement. Otherwise...vengeance will be very double-edged.

Distance from "almost where, can do it tomorrow" and "actually there" is quite long, when you really see the depth of the problem of cleaning aircraft down to the last bolt.

This is a problem, and this has deeper ramifications. If this happened, other known sanctions with American and European are just a matter of time. China isn't Iran nor even Russia, it's just impossible to sustain fleet so large on scavenging.

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you seriously think, China will take revenge and will ban Airbus/Boeing.. absolutely zero chance.

Tomboy said:

Well, Guancha said back in 2023 or aircraft last year that fully domestic C919 is due by 2027 which I assume mean fully ready for production. IMO it could be possible to have teams work around the clock to get all the certification done faster as before the project was mostly considered a backup project but at this point they should delicate all resource to this.

PS: if things has gone to shit already, can my dream of a C919 based ASW and AEWC aircraft finally come true.

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With China's existing fleet of Boeing and Airbus planes, China can indeed wait until 2027 to roll off a fully domestic C919. That C919 (C919B?) could serve more military and other specialised purposes than carrying passengers. Yes, there will certainly be shortage of imported high-quality airliners and parts, but that's why China has the most comprehensive and well-developed passenger rail service in the world. Most airliners, especially double isles like Boeing 777, 787, A350, etc. should reserved for international flights. People traveling domestically in China SHOULD be taking trains unless the the distance were greater than 1,200-1,500 km. There is a reason why HSR can travel at 350kph, soon 400, whilst the ticket prices are heavily subsidised and state-owned railway company heavily in debt.

Gloire_bb said:

You can come with a vengeance when you have fully independent replacement. Otherwise...vengeance will be very double-edged.

Distance from "almost where, can do it tomorrow" and "actually there" is quite long, when you really see the depth of the problem of cleaning aircraft down to the last bolt.

This is a problem, and this has deeper ramifications. If this happened, other known sanctions with American and European are just a matter of time. China isn't Iran nor even Russia, it's just impossible to sustain fleet so large on scavenging.

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Considering Comac has only delivered 4 or 5 C919s this year, is it really that bad?

sunnymaxi said:

you seriously think, China will take revenge and will ban Airbus/Boeing.. absolutely zero chance.

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By the way, I didn't mean to ban them, but rather speed up the pace of domestic development and come at the with market share acquisition.