I understood that using foreign subsystems meant that parts and maintenance facilities are already in place in many foreign countries because the same systems are used by B737 and Airbus 320 family. Using Chinese subsystems for aircraft used by the military cannot be a problem. I suppose that China wants to develop its own global subsystem maintenance infrastructure as opportunity occurs.
COMAC C919
- Thread starter Deino
- Start date
Are you forgetting that 2025 is COMAC's goal for 80% indigenous parts? If your claim is correct that Y-20 parts could be easily substituted for C919 parts, we wouldn't need to talk about 80% indigenous by 2025. Perhaps you are also forgetting that they are completely different aircraft with different designs and missions. It's like saying you can simply insert a BMW X5 part into a Ford Explorer just because they're both SUVs. LOLOLOLOLUmm.. are you forgetting the C919 is preparing for flight testing right this year--in 2017. If they were to start now, from 2018-2025 it is 8 years to design, manufacture and flight test domestic subsystems that Chinese companies are already mass producing for the Y-20A. Yes, all of them have already been developed by Chinese companies for the Y-20 including avionics, flight control systems, hydraulics, landing gear, environmental control, electric and power systems and so on. So unless you think that cabin interiors or seating represents a major design challenge for the C919 that time frame is more than enough to get the job done. This is assuming that COMAC hasn't already put in place a Plan B for developing domestic alternatives for the foreign gear in the C919 by now, which would be very surprising to me, given the strategic importance of this program since its inception.
You do realize that the most risky part is always the engine, which also happens to be the component most vulnerable to development delays. And guess what, assuming the original news is accurate, the prototype of the domestic engine will be completed this year and 8 years is enough to complete all flight testing. So yes, a domestic version could be made ready well before 2030-40
The question here isn't if they can, but whether they will. COMAC may want to focus all resources on readying the commercial version for service entry, particularly if there are major problems encountered during flight testing. That, I believe, is the thing that can actually delay the military version.
China has already tried that tactic and has been beaten with a big WTO stick; you must have forgotten 2012. China has long since resumed deliveries of rare earths to all customers. The other problem is that only currently does China have control over the rare earths market. If the US and the West truly felt that Chinese supply was unsteady enough and that this would impact their strategic standing, there is absolutely no doubt that multiple rare earth mines would open up all over the world, including in the US, and would be heavily subsidized by the state if necessary in case China tries to redump rare earths back on the market. You are mistaking mines for actual supply. China controls the current supply because it has most of the mines, but it is erroneous to think that therefore China actually controls 97% of the available rare earths on the planet.
China most definitely wants to indigenize 100% or nearly 100% of parts suppliers for the C919. That doesn't mean using Chinese subsystems for military aircraft "cannot be a problem". It IS a problem right now because China hasn't got there yet. Even by 2025 the goal is 80%, not 100%.
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
The Chinese turbofan engine CJ-1000A dedicated to the C919 program will come out of the final assembly line by the end of 2017.From Henri K
Did he meant prototype? Need many more years for testing
Did he meant prototype? Need many more years for testing
Equation
Lieutenant General
[QUOTE="Iron Man, post: 473201, member: 11971
China has already tried that tactic and has been beaten with a big WTO stick; you must have forgotten 2012. China has long since resumed deliveries of rare earths to all customers. The other problem is that only currently does China have control over the rare earths market. If the US and the West truly felt that Chinese supply was unsteady enough and that this would impact their strategic standing, there is absolutely no doubt that multiple rare earth mines would open up all over the world, including in the US, and would be heavily subsidized by the state if necessary in case China tries to redump rare earths back on the market. You are mistaking mines for actual supply. China controls the current supply because it has most of the mines, but it is erroneous to think that therefore China actually controls 97% of the available rare earths on the planet.
[/QUOTE]
China controls 97% of the processing of the materials. The one rare earth mineral processing in the US has been out of business. The only other one outside of China is located in Indonesia and that one is struggling to stay in business (last time I heard). WTO can't do anything about China wanting to decrease the pollution of processing the rare earth minerals in China. The US and West are burden by their inept government system that requires legislation and parliament agreement in order to pass just one decision.
China has already tried that tactic and has been beaten with a big WTO stick; you must have forgotten 2012. China has long since resumed deliveries of rare earths to all customers. The other problem is that only currently does China have control over the rare earths market. If the US and the West truly felt that Chinese supply was unsteady enough and that this would impact their strategic standing, there is absolutely no doubt that multiple rare earth mines would open up all over the world, including in the US, and would be heavily subsidized by the state if necessary in case China tries to redump rare earths back on the market. You are mistaking mines for actual supply. China controls the current supply because it has most of the mines, but it is erroneous to think that therefore China actually controls 97% of the available rare earths on the planet.
[/QUOTE]
China controls 97% of the processing of the materials. The one rare earth mineral processing in the US has been out of business. The only other one outside of China is located in Indonesia and that one is struggling to stay in business (last time I heard). WTO can't do anything about China wanting to decrease the pollution of processing the rare earth minerals in China. The US and West are burden by their inept government system that requires legislation and parliament agreement in order to pass just one decision.
That is just patently not true. First, WTO definitively ruled against China restricting exports of rare earths and China complied with the ruling. WTO can most definitely do many punitive things to China for not abiding by rulings, for example by allowing one or more countries to impose various extreme (and otherwise illegal) tariffs on Chinese exports until compliance is achieved. Second, Mountain Pass in California used to be the biggest supplier of rare earths in the world until it was undercut by Chinese mines in the early 2000s. It was in both financial and environmental trouble in past years but Molycorp ownership (and bankruptcy) has been bought out by MP Mine Operations LLC just this year and its environmental cleanup cleared the way for the local government to extend operations of this mine for at least 30 years from 2004. So where is the alleged governmental gridlock? All this mine needs is for China to block rare earth exports and it is immediately and massively profitable. And again, if US and the West feels China is legitimately threatening their access to rare earths, this mine (and other mines around the world) will most definitely run no matter how profitable or unprofitable it is. There are many rare earth deposits and/or mines all over the world. China currently controls the most because it can and does undercut almost everyone else. But if China stops shipping rare earths, how is it going to undercut anyone? The perception that China has a stranglehold on the world's supply of rare earths is an illusion brought on by economic considerations. The problem for you is that economic considerations =/= strategic considerations.
PiSigma
"the engineer"
I agree. It is simply supply and demand. Demand is consistent and if china cuts supply then price go up and it becomes profitable to mine in US, Argentina Brazil and Canada.
Equation
Lieutenant General
China is currently monopolizing the PROCESSING of rare earth minerals. NO other country could even compete against China in this important minerals. You can have all the deposits of rare earths in the world but if your country is NOT doing the processing the minerals for industrial use than it is basically sitting there useless. It's that simple. Even countries that mines rare earth minerals send their products to China to process it.
SamuraiBlue
Captain
Don't make me laugh processing of rare earth minerals has been done in Japan for a long time.
The reason why PRC was not able to stop exporting the stuff was because in the past Japan was the extreme few having the expertise to do it.
Do you know why the Sony Walkman was able to shrink the size of the headphone back in the 80's?
It's because Japan was the only nation back in those day able to process Neodymium to intensify magnetic strength to miniaturize the headphones with paper thin sound actuators.
Equation
Lieutenant General
Has Japan been processing any heavy earth metals lately to be 100% independent and be able to compete with China? NO? I thought so.
SamuraiBlue
Captain
Heavy earth material?
Japan has been processing RARE EARTH MATERIAL.
Which nation do you think had been processing the material all this time?
Not PRC that is for sure.
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