Climate Change and Renewable Energy News and Discussion

tphuang

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China's Power generation capacity is projected to reach ~2810 GW in 2023, up 250 GW from 2022
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China's Electricity consumption is projected to increase 6% in 2023 (from 8640 TWh in 2022),
It's too bad that the paused the nuclear permits for a couple of years. Looks at their overall deployment from this page, only the first fast neutron reactor is going online this year and who knows how much additional electricity it can generate.
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nuclear reactor generates power almost 100% of the time (it kind of has to, because shutting it down is really difficult), so have a new 1 GW plant is equivalent to like 4 GW of solar capacity.
They got 3 large reactors going online in 2024
3 more in 2025 and 5 more in 2026. Also their first SMR will be up and running by then.

I will need to look somewhere to find their power generation breakdown
 

AndrewS

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nuclear reactor generates power almost 100% of the time (it kind of has to, because shutting it down is really difficult), so have a new 1 GW plant is equivalent to like 4 GW of solar capacity.

In China, I think it's more like

Annual Electricity Generation
1 GW Nuclear: 8 TWh @ 90% utilisation
1 GW Solar: 1 TWh (0.8 in the UK, 1.6 in Saudi)

So the ratio is more like 8:1
 

tphuang

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From
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全国规模以上工业企业发电量8.39万亿千瓦时、同比增长2.2%,其中,规模以上工业企业火电、水电、核电发电量同比分别增长0.9%、1.0%和2.5%。2022年,全口径并网风电、太阳能发电量同比分别增长16.3%和30.8%。全口径非化石能源发电量同比增长8.7%,占总发电量比重为36.2%,同比提高1.7个百分点。全口径煤电发电量同比增长0.7%,占全口径总发电量的比重为58.4%,同比降低1.7个百分点
So non-fossil fuel energy generation increased by 8.7% and now represent 36.2% of power generation, up 1.7% absolute terms from last year. Coal Power generation up 0.7% and now represent 58.4% of power generation, so down 1.7%. I assume the remaining power generation of 5.4% comes from natural gas. It seems like the fastest way for them to bring down emissions is through replacing coal power with gas power.
 

tphuang

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Continuing the discussion from the economy thread regarding green hydrogen. This industry seems to be at its infancy still. It maybe where solar industry was at 5 or 6 years ago.

At this point, China is the world's largest hydrogen fuel market, but it seems like over 99% of hydrogen are still produced with non-green method. For example, according to this article
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China aims to produce 100,000 to 200,000 tonnes of green hydrogen a year and have about 50,000 hydrogen-fuelled vehicles by 2025, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said in a statement.
China currently produces 33 million tonnes of hydrogen a year, about 80% of it generated using coal and natural gas, and the rest mainly a by-product from industrial sectors, according to the government.
The China Hydrogen Alliance has estimated China's hydrogen demand will reach 35 million tonnes per year by 2030, from 20 million tonnes now, and reach 60 million tonnes by 2050.

That really is not a lot being produced renewable sources. We will need green hydrogen production to ramp up 10 folds in a decade to make a difference. Thankfully, it looks like hydrogen fuel demand is growing less rapidly than that.

Thankfully, the ramp up of electrolyser production appears to be happening
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if you look at that Bloomberg Chart, we are likely to see huge jumps in electrolyzer installation. If things can achieve increase at that rate, we might not need to use so much goal and natural gas to produce hydrogen.
 

tphuang

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Continuing the discussion from the economy thread regarding green hydrogen. This industry seems to be at its infancy still. It maybe where solar industry was at 5 or 6 years ago.

At this point, China is the world's largest hydrogen fuel market, but it seems like over 99% of hydrogen are still produced with non-green method. For example, according to this article
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That really is not a lot being produced renewable sources. We will need green hydrogen production to ramp up 10 folds in a decade to make a difference. Thankfully, it looks like hydrogen fuel demand is growing less rapidly than that.

Thankfully, the ramp up of electrolyser production appears to be happening
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if you look at that Bloomberg Chart, we are likely to see huge jumps in electrolyzer installation. If things can achieve increase at that rate, we might not need to use so much goal and natural gas to produce hydrogen.
according to this, we need to produce 500 to 800 million ton of green hydrogen a year by 2050 in order to transition shipping fuel from fossil fuel to mostly hydrogen fuel. Along with that, we will also need to make the ships a lot more energy efficient and probably have electric propulsion everywhere and try to use battery electric shipping when possible.

The task is quite daunting in China and elsewhere. That's why it is so exciting to see Dongfang electric work on trying to commercialize the technology to producing green hydrogen in Ocean.
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It is so much easier to store clean energy in off peak hours in fuel cells than batteries. The hydrogen fuel is just going to be more dense in energy than sodium ion batteries. Especially if the energy is produced by offshore wind/solar farms.
 

tphuang

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This is another good report on their progress here
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And some important points I found.

I think it's quite interesting that China's private industries are just so much more aggressive in their goals than central gov't. I mean they are looking to export all this technology to Saudi Arabia. SPIC, which is mentioned in this article, is one of the main participants in the agreements with the Saudis. Clearly, they need to not only develop the technology, but also ramp it up and figure out how to lower costs.

The one I really liked is how they point to Chinese government's focus on the hydrogen technology rather than the green hydrogen production targets. It's important to not just ramp up production, but also rampup hydrogen fuel stations, storage systems and transportation systems. All of that requires breakthrough in technology and building up supply chain and ramping up manufacturing. Also very important to demonstrate hydrogen fuel usage in chemical and metallurgy industries that traditionally require high power fossil fuel to operate. And that's not even counting fertilizer industry, ammonia conversion, shipping fuel and airliner fuel. Kind of pointless to increase your production if they end up not being used.

But it looks like the green hydrogen projects are popping up everywhere and the electrolyzer production is going up in spades. Looks like from the chart, 40 GW of electrolyzer can produce 10 mt of hydrogen fuel. That means if they want to decarbonize and take over 1/4 of the world market, then they probably need 600 GW of installed electrolyzer by 2050. Having seen what they've already achieved up to this point in renewable industry, that's definitely possible. Aside from that, I'm sure they will also want to export the electrolyzers and setup plants in other countries like Saudi Arabia. There, there is a lot of potential here. The thing is that countries that produce a lot of fossil fuel will get left out in a world where countries are decarbonizing. In order for them to generate profit, they will need to use that money to develop new ways of making money. Saudi Arabia has more than enough sun to power the entire country. But if they were to export clean energy, it's far easier to do so by exporting hydrogen fuel cells than battery packs (which would be kind of dumb). Hence the GCC countries interests in China and green hydrogen technology. China has some natural partners here.
 

Overbom

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The report mentioned that hydrogen valves are a component that the Chinese companies cannot make by themselves and need to import it from the West. That's a big risk here
 

luminary

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Carbon dioxide from the nation’s factories can be captured and combined with
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to make low-carbon fuels such as synthetic methane and green methanol, said Ludovic Renou, CEO of CMA CGM China, part of the French shipping giant CMA CGM Group.

“China has one of the biggest feedstocks [of raw materials for green fuels], this is where we need to see whether the feedstock can be transformed rapidly,” Renou said. “We need collaborative working groups at multiple levels, provincial and national … Today, such effort is a bit lacking in structure, a bit individual and spread [out].”

CMA CGM Group, the world’s third-largest container shipping company with a carrying capacity of 5 million 20-foot equivalent units, said in September that it would create a €1.5 billion (US$1.64 billion) fund along with its partners to invest in fuel decarbonisation technology ventures, as part of its efforts to achieve its net zero emissions goal by 2050.


The investment to be made over five years will focus on scaling up production of
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, such as biofuels, biomethane, synthetic methane and green methanol, for use in its ships, trucks, trains and aircraft.

While green fuels made from agricultural or municipal waste have the potential to cut shipping carbon emissions by 67 per cent, the current volumes are too small, Renou said.

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Meanwhile, synthetic production of green fuels that combine captured carbon emissions and
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substantially.

This has not stopped CMA CGM China from exploring collaborations with potential partners on green fuels in China, Renou said.

“What we want to
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,” he said. “We are working with some potential Chinese partners to develop green energy. CMA CGM can commit to purchase green fuels from China under potential agreements.”


Last month, CMA CGM China and the Port of Shanghai signed a pact to supply its berthed ships with onshore power at competitive prices, thus limiting the use of bunker fuel to generate electricity and reducing carbon emissions.

The number of CMA CGM vessels likely to be hooked up with onshore power supply in Shanghai is expected to rise to 50 by the middle of this year, from 13 at the end of 2022.

Last March, one of its vessels became the first to be refuelled with liquefied natural gas in China, putting the nation’s bunkering industry on course for its energy transition. LNG use in ships can reduce their carbon emissions by 20 per cent compared with conventional fuel.
CMA CGM Group’s 23,000-TEU LNG-powered container ship Jacques Saade. The company plans to deploy 77 LNG-powered vessels by the end of 2026. Photo: Handout

CMA CGM Group’s 23,000-TEU LNG-powered container ship Jacques Saade. The company plans to deploy 77 LNG-powered vessels by the end of 2026. Photo: Handout

CMA CGM, which was the first shipping line to operate LNG-powered ultra-large container ships, has a target to deploy 77 LNG-powered vessels by the end of 2026, of which 44 will also be capable of using synthetic methane by the end of 2024. The company has 584 ships.

The global shipping industry is looking to at least halve its carbon emissions by 2050 compared with 2008 levels, according to a target set by the International Maritime Organisation.

This would require slashing the industry’s carbon emissions per tonne of transport by 40 per cent by 2030, rising to 70 per cent by 2050.
 
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