Chinese semiconductor industry

localizer said:

Yeah but what US is trying to do is deny China chip tech to force a war on TW. They will corner China.

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There is no need for a war.

China has multiple layers of options:
- [Verbal threat] China can declare that USA is illegally interfering with China's internal affairs in denying the ability of China companies that are based in Taiwan (i.e. TSMC) to supply rest of China. If this persists, China will ensure USA will be equally deprived of the chips.
- [Counter sanction via Taiwan companies] Provide clear instructions to TSMC and all Taiwan companies not to supply USA, or face the consequences.
- [Get the Taiwan companies to heel] If TSMC and other Taiwan companies ignore the instructions, there are multiple layers of options to apply
- confiscate their holdings in mainland China
- sanctions
- level their factories in Taiwan after giving adequate instructions to evacuate

There are more than one way to catch up in a race. Run faster to catch up, or handicap the one in front of you.
USA has clearly chosen the second route to try to stop China running further in front. If TSMC cease to supply USA, USA no longer has a lead over China in the advanced chip manufacturing. Samsung would become the only manufacturer, and they won't really have the capacity to take on much of US companies' work. At that point, if Samsung has any survival instinct, it would do well to declare neutrality.

Oldschool said:

China must urgently build up its carrier strike groups and hopefully have setup at gwarda and at Myanmar to protect it's commercial sea lanes. If China has to bypass Malacca
Hopefully by 2025, China has 4 carrier strike groups at it's disposal.

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@Oldschool hi bro don't want to be a spoiler, but increasing military build up is good but within our capacity, we can't print money like the Americans, all we need is invest that money for productive use and strengthen our weakness, we are coming from a lower based of development and need a lot of capital and investment to shore it up.

Nutrient said:

If Tom Cotton's plan actually happens, and the US totally stops exporting chips to the Middle Kingdom, China's companies will have little choice but to buy domestic chips. And that means the country's young engineers will have time and funding to become more experienced. As the Middle Kingdom graduates more engineers than all of the West, there is little doubt that China will be a dominant player in the high technology market.

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So the Chinese need not lift a finger to force the Americans to cede market share to the local companies. This is Adam Smith's invisible hand at its finest. So no more complaints of unfair competition!!!

Hitchhiker said:

If the escalation and provocation from Taiwan and US really warrant so, there are many ways to bring Taiwan to heel without invasion, in increasing severity:
- Nationalize all Taiwan factories in China. Since UN recognize one China this is strictly speaking an internal affairs.
- Cease all trade with Taiwan
- Cease all travel with Taiwan
- Blockade the ports of Taiwan
- Missile attack on strategic industrial areas, after adequate evacuation warning given to ensure no civilian casualties

All of these should have minimal diplomatic effect as long as Taiwan and USA are seen as the one provoking.

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Actions like this will only cause the U.S. to make its defense commitment to Taiwan explicit, thus backing itself into a corner. It will also cause more weapons sales to Taiwan and more sanctions on China. And it's not going to "bring Taiwan to heel", it's just going to make people in Taiwan hate the mainland more.

If China is doing stuff like that, it might as well just invade and get something for its troubles.

Anyway, let's get back on topic please.

ansy1968 said:

@Oldschool hi bro don't want to be a spoiler, but increasing military build up is good but within our capacity, we can't print money like the Americans, all we need is invest that money for productive use and strengthen our weakness, we are coming from a lower based of development and need a lot of capital and investment to shore it up.

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Carrier program represents China breaking alot of technology barriers. Electromagnetic catapult, nuclear powered carrier, j35 stealth fighters, ..etc. technology that China must mastered
Also, it's a buy China circular investment. Money spent directly go to boost economy. And most importantly this will be used to safe guard Chinese oversea trade.

You mentioned about wasting money. This is different than India have to use that hard earned foreign currency to buy French rafael, Israel's guns and drones, US's P3c global lift , and Apache Russia s400, and armata. Those are not circular for its own economy

gadgetcool5 said:

Actions like this will only cause the U.S. to make its defense commitment to Taiwan explicit, thus backing itself into a corner. It will also cause more weapons sales to Taiwan and more sanctions on China. And it's not going to "bring Taiwan to heel", it's just going to make people in Taiwan hate the mainland more.

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It's called extortion a protection racket, that is what America is a Mafia Don, from Saudi Arabia in the middle east , to Ukraine and Poland in Europe, to Japan and TW in Asia, selling expensive and outdated weapons. In exchange for oil and chip tech from TSMC. Oooh !!! the US had enforcer to in Australia, Canada and the UK, NZ had quit can't stomach the hypocrisy anymore....LOL.

gadgetcool5 said:

If China is doing stuff like that, it might as well just invade and get something for its troubles.

Anyway, let's get back on topic please.

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Well who is the one instigating, you threaten me by surrounding me with bases and I don't had the right to respond. You're right we need to go back to topic, But From my perspective the Chinese don't want any trouble, the reasoning is very simple, why destroy something that belongs to you.

Kancil said:

So the Chinese need not lift a finger to force the Americans to cede market share to the local companies. This is Adam Smith's invisible hand at its finest. So no more complaints of unfair competition!!!

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The technology is there, it's just a matter of maturing it. If we are not given a chance, none will grow, you must slap and kick Chinese, then they will feel threatened and unite as one to fight the monster. All countries need an 'eenmy' not just USA, there must be a rallying call. I know CNOOC for one is giving chance to a local process control company beacuse of the sanctions, I evaluated their system, it is actually superior to what the West can offer but who would take the chance? Now these companies have no choice, you are creating many new Huaweis. They just don't understand the scale. As long as China is peaceful and there is no war...I will bet my hoony that China will emerge as strong as US if not better.

gadgetcool5 said:

Actions like this will only cause the U.S. to make its defense commitment to Taiwan explicit, thus backing itself into a corner. It will also cause more weapons sales to Taiwan and more sanctions on China. And it's not going to "bring Taiwan to heel", it's just going to make people in Taiwan hate the mainland more.

If China is doing stuff like that, it might as well just invade and get something for its troubles.

Anyway, let's get back on topic please.

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Most Taiwan independent movement folks there have japanese blood. Few millions of them. Those China have to root them out of Taiwan.
More sanctions on China won't change anything

Annihilation98 said:

I dont think US will suffer and they dont care actually. They have many allies and US and its allies control almost all semiconductor equipment and market. If decoupling happen, china will lose almost everything at long term. US can block China access to their chips and china cant even find replacement. Huawei is the example and nothing can they do about it.


Huawei is now focus on pig farming because they cant produce phone anymore.

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Imagine this fate will happen to xiaomi, BBK electronic, Lenovo, DJI, electric car, satellite, Haier, TCL etc. China electronic export will collapse for sure

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Are you one of the 120 million unemployed, jobless Indians ? You should applied for work at Intel. Jai Hind.

localizer said:

Who knows, EU also wants to be more independent on semiconductor supply chain.

Perhaps they’re willing to supply to China once that is accomplished?


Yeah but what US is trying to do is deny China chip tech to force a war on TW. They will corner China.

It’s embarrassing enough that China claims TW as a province but TSMC can’t even sell to Huawei. Imagine this being expanded to all mainland companies. It's not only a tech independence issue, but a sovereignty issue. And US is violating Chinese sovereignty.

All I know is that TSMC has scorched earth policy and will not leave anything for the mainland. The engineers will also escape to the US to reestablish TSMC there.



On the other hand, Taiwan knows that TSMC is a significant bargaining chip and if the US gains lead over TSMC again, then Taiwan is forfeit. US has been pressuring TSMC to build that Arizona EUV fab to supply US F-35s and etc... US would actually prefer to have TSMC and its talent as a US company or part of Intel.

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Don't think about tsmc, even smic stop huawei order facing US sanctions. SMIC in shanghai.. at the end of the day they still listed in entity's list.