@FairAndUnbiased bro is it possible for YMTC using a mix of local and foreign equipment in their production line? while They're waiting for their turn for SMEE 28nm DUVL and other crucial indigenous equipment?
Chinese semiconductor industry
- Thread starter Hendrik_2000
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IMHO that day should arrive in about 2 years, the technical capability for full self-sufficiency at nodes 14nm and above.
Probably take around 5 years to build all the fabs needed.
Won't take 5 years as that moves us past Made in China 2025 schedule. Remember they have unlimited funding now. The only limit is talent.
Yes, I believe they have already done a supply chain audit and they are correcting vulnerabilities.
This is not the Great Leap Forward in integrated circuits for China.
These fabs must be commercially viable.
How many additional fabs does China need?
At least, let's say 10 big fabs, say for argument's sake. And these 10 big fabs will supply 70% or more of Chinese internal demand for chips.
It probably will take 2 years to build a fab. That TELSA factory in Shanghai was built as fast as any factory was built and that took 9 months and few more months for production to start.
They got to build the factory, then install all the specialized equipment to be ordered. That equipment is really expensive and not bought off the shelf. Put in the order, and the supplier will give a delivery date while they assemble that machine.
After all of that is done, then they test out the systems to make sure it all works. Then the customer must be lined up with their orders.
If there are no customers, or customers give small orders, then all those billions going down the drain.
It is not practical to build all these fabs at once. It is not the Great Leap Forward in fabs.
Build all this capacity at once, all within 2 years, your customers may be hesitant.
Better to build the fabs with spaced out time lines.
That way the market can adjust and make their plans for a seamless transition.
Also, if they build all 10 of their fabs at once, then someone makes another breakthrough during the construction, or when just finishing building the fab and news of a better tech emerges, then we are talking Great Leap Forward type economic mismanagement.
It is just how it works.
We can see how this story will drag on for some other players, as they know they still got a chance.
I agree. Building fabs where there's no market is a bad idea.
Wonder who the customers will be?
@FairAndUnbiased bro of the 4 FABS (SAMSUNG, GLOFO, INTEL AND TSMC) who is the first to fall? well its obvious Glofo which I heard Intel plan to buy the rest are to big to failed and are considered a strategic asset. If TSMC know how to play its cards, they will not allow their 3nm or even its 2nm to be produced at the Arizona FAB. If they did then its game over, IBM had already announced its 2nm chip producing it is another matter ( it needed TSMC to FAB it). All of this will come to naught if China is able to produced a 7nm 3D chipset that HUawei and SMIC is researching, it will be a generation behind but at least it had a ready market (especially Huawei handset). So price wise it will be great for us consumer in 2024 and I will hold on plan of purchasing a new phone until I see a wholly new Huawei phone with its owned 7nm KIRIN 3D chipset powering it.
I believe GloFo is the least likely to fail IMO, because they're actually producing the products that the US market needs: automotive and power chips that go into cars in the large US car industry.
What are 5 nm SoCs going to go? Smartphones... but does anywhere in North America have a smartphone industry? Laptops? No, they'll have to export to China at the end, and what if Chinese companies don't buy? Sure there's some suppliers to say, Apple, that are too big to drop. OK, but does Apple have the volume to compete with Android? Their SOC chips are only $20 of value in a $1000 phone.
Could they dump the excess products in China or other countries at a price that is lower than elsewhere?
Just to drive out the future competition preemptively.
antiterror13
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tariff is the key
if you are the biggest customer, you control the supply chain and decide where to buy ... ask America in the past- Status