Chinese semiconductor industry

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krautmeister

Junior Member
Registered Member
I am sure that if possible, Xi would happily give away Taiwan's chip industry to the US in exchange to get Taiwan.

This is the sort of Win-Win-Win cooperation where everybody wins, that Xi wants in the world!
Taiwan's Tsai actually knows what she is doing. She is helping the US compete against China in semiconductors. China needs to preempt this action by embargoing Taiwan as soon as possible to prevent Chinese technology from going to the adversary. This is important national security issue.
Tsai Ing-wen is the leader of Taiwan NOT America. Her actions to allow Taiwan's crown jewels to fall into American hands dramatically weakens Taiwan and gets rid of the single most important reason for international support of Taiwan Independence. Like Voyager said, it's WIN-WIN-WIN for China and America. Imo, this is more like Tsai helping China. I hope this goes even further and Tsai goes out of her way to transfer all semiconductor expertise to Americans, not just fabs but also entire R&D centers, fab technicians en masse, etc. Once America starts eating into Taiwan's strategic cash cow, Taiwan's economy will depend more and more on China. I didn't think I would ever say it but in this case, the American government didn't f**k up, like they usually do, and actually made some good strategic decisions that will clearly work out for them.
 

broadsword

Brigadier
Tsai Ing-wen is the leader of Taiwan NOT America. Her actions to allow Taiwan's crown jewels to fall into American hands dramatically weakens Taiwan and gets rid of the single most important reason for international support of Taiwan Independence. Like Voyager said, it's WIN-WIN-WIN for China and America. Imo, this is more like Tsai helping China. I hope this goes even further and Tsai goes out of her way to transfer all semiconductor expertise to Americans, not just fabs but also entire R&D centers, fab technicians en masse, etc. Once America starts eating into Taiwan's strategic cash cow, Taiwan's economy will depend more and more on China. I didn't think I would ever say it but in this case, the American government didn't f**k up, like they usually do, and actually made some good strategic decisions that will clearly work out for them.

The consequences of setting plants in America should be told to the Taiwanese people. They will decide whether it will be good for them.
 

jfcarli

Junior Member
Registered Member
Taiwan giving its crown jewels to the US is a two edged sword for China.

As long as TSMC controls the largest part of the world`s chipmaking it is quite dangerous for the US to become militarily more aggressive against China.

If on one side the US worries about China invading Taiwan and as a consequence this is the most important reason for the pressure on TSMC, it is also a very important reason NOT to engage militarily against China.

Just a few days ago TSMC`s chairman sort of downplayed the US venture, a few days later, suddenly TSMC is going all in manufacturing in the US despite of its chairman`s words.

TSMC being only a few miles from continental China is a protection for China as well. Once it is removed to the US... THAT protection does not exist anymore.

Maybe I am paranoid, but if I were the US and planned for a war with China in the not too distant future, I would violently squeeze TSMC to move ALL manufacturing to the US.

The pressure the US is exerting is enormous for the chairman to switch positions in such a short time.

Hope it is just paranoia on my side...
 

voyager1

Captain
Registered Member
Taiwan giving its crown jewels to the US is a two edged sword for China.

As long as TSMC controls the largest part of the world`s chipmaking it is quite dangerous for the US to become militarily more aggressive against China.

If on one side the US worries about China invading Taiwan and as a consequence this is the most important reason for the pressure on TSMC, it is also a very important reason NOT to engage militarily against China.

Just a few days ago TSMC`s chairman sort of downplayed the US venture, a few days later, suddenly TSMC is going all in manufacturing in the US despite of its chairman`s words.

TSMC being only a few miles from continental China is a protection for China as well. Once it is removed to the US... THAT protection does not exist anymore.

Maybe I am paranoid, but if I were the US and planned for a war with China in the not too distant future, I would violently squeeze TSMC to move ALL manufacturing to the US.

The pressure the US is exerting is enormous for the chairman to switch positions in such a short time.

Hope it is just paranoia on my side...
TSMC Fabs being near China play a part in the US avoiding a war with China

However it is only a small part. There are still Many many reasons why the US is not attacking China

On the other hand, the Fabs that Taiwan has, are the MAIN reason the international "community" would have to support Taiwan someway to avoid being blackmailed by Beijing having these Fabs or disrupting their economies
 

ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
Taiwan giving its crown jewels to the US is a two edged sword for China.

As long as TSMC controls the largest part of the world`s chipmaking it is quite dangerous for the US to become militarily more aggressive against China.

If on one side the US worries about China invading Taiwan and as a consequence this is the most important reason for the pressure on TSMC, it is also a very important reason NOT to engage militarily against China.

Just a few days ago TSMC`s chairman sort of downplayed the US venture, a few days later, suddenly TSMC is going all in manufacturing in the US despite of its chairman`s words.

TSMC being only a few miles from continental China is a protection for China as well. Once it is removed to the US... THAT protection does not exist anymore.

Maybe I am paranoid, but if I were the US and planned for a war with China in the not too distant future, I would violently squeeze TSMC to move ALL manufacturing to the US.

The pressure the US is exerting is enormous for the chairman to switch positions in such a short time.

Hope it is just paranoia on my side...

It's not paranoia, you are 100% right. It's a hedge move by the US though rather than the suspected certainty of war preparations. Plus it benefits them to make a comprehensive fab tech withdrawal from Taiwan, not that it even needs to. It's still better/nicer to have factories safe on its own home soil since trade can be disrupted even without a direct kinetic war. Auto industry chip shortages also created some political incentive to do something.
 

krautmeister

Junior Member
Registered Member
Taiwan giving its crown jewels to the US is a two edged sword for China.

As long as TSMC controls the largest part of the world`s chipmaking it is quite dangerous for the US to become militarily more aggressive against China.
...
...
TSMC being only a few miles from continental China is a protection for China as well. Once it is removed to the US... THAT protection does not exist anymore.

Maybe I am paranoid, but if I were the US and planned for a war with China in the not too distant future, I would violently squeeze TSMC to move ALL manufacturing to the US.
Nope, you're not paranoid, it makes a lot of sense what you said. I agree that the American government does a lot of counterproductive and downright stupid things that hurt their own interests. The big problem is that they don't learn from their mistakes and have historically doubled down and patted themselves on the back the entire time while being facepalmed.

This is the wildcard with any kind of strategic analysis when it comes to America. Strategy requires rational decision making and analysis. When it comes to America, all bets are off because it is riddled with clueless political hacks, war hawks, war party funded think tanks, compromised mainstream media, censored social media platforms, and a thoroughly brainwashed population. So, would America attack China in China's backyard despite there being no essential national interest to do so except to continue being called #1 for a little longer? Sadly, that's where we are headed unlikely as it may sound. Except in this reality, a proxy war of some kind involving cannon fodder like Japan, India, Australia is more likely.
 

Tyler

Captain
Registered Member
TSMC Fabs being near China play a part in the US avoiding a war with China

However it is only a small part. There are still Many many reasons why the US is not attacking China

On the other hand, the Fabs that Taiwan has, are the MAIN reason the international "community" would have to support Taiwan someway to avoid being blackmailed by Beijing having these Fabs or disrupting their economies
That is the reason why China will act soon by preempting this stealing of Chinese technology by the US. Chinese will act before the US will get any TSMC technology.
 

ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
That is the reason why China will act soon by preempting this stealing of Chinese technology by the US. Chinese will act before the US will get any TSMC technology.

lol are you serious? The US owns half of Taiwanese leadership in every way except outright overtly. As long as Taiwan "depends" on US providing military security from mainland, there is no way its leaders will say a second word whenever Washington gives orders. The technology is Taiwan's and mainland can get there without them. It's not like TSMC owns dutch EUV tech which is the main stumbling block for China when it comes to smaller than 7nm.
 

jfcarli

Junior Member
Registered Member
Sorry for the long post, below. Couldn`t make it shorter.

Japan’s attack on Pearl Harbor was provoked by the US`s economic warfare.

Japan depended on many imports from the US and, starting in 1939, Roosevelt imposed several economic sanctions on Japan.

On July 31, 1940 he embargoed exports of aviation motor fuels and lubricants. On October 16, 1940, he embargoed all exports of scrap iron and steel. On July 26, 1941, Roosevelt froze Japanese assets in the United States. One week later Roosevelt embargoed the export of the remaining grades of oil still flowing to Japan.

The British and the Dutch followed suit, embargoing exports to Japan from their colonies in south east Asia.

Dec 7th 1941 Japan attacked Pearl Harbor.



DOES ANY OF THE ABOVE SOUND SOMEWHAT FAMILIAR??

If China invaded Taiwan and seized TSMC, it would be a much, much more serious event than Japan`s Pearl Harbor attack in 1941. It would put US`s economy on its knees.

No wonder the US is scared shitless!!

The economic warfare against China started with tariffs then IP theft and so on. It is escalating quickly. The most recent episode is blocking the access of China to semiconductors. China imports twice as much in semiconductors than it does in oil.

The US is terrified by the prospect of China crossing the Taiwan strait.

In my previous post, I thought TSMC was under enormous pressure from the US, and most likely it is. HOWEVER... Morris Chang is an old, old fox!!!

He knows the US is kind of desperate because they are just as dependent on TSMC as China is. As a consequence the whole US is kneeling in front of Morris Chang to mitigate that threat.

Right now, Morris Chang is one of the most powerful men in the world.

His declarations, last week, lowballing manufacture in the US, undervalueing American engineers, saying TSMC would produce less cutting edge chips in the US, etc... were Morris Chang`s way of extracting much, much more from the US.

A week later they are now planning SIX multibillion new factories in the US!!!???

Hmmmm….

I am pretty sure the US is now promising him land, building, machinery AND working capital, free of charge, with tax exemptions for many, many years in exchange for his building the six new factories.

Instead of one plant, he is now going to be served on a silver plate, six cutting edge plants.

In 2011 Fiat got 25 percent of Chrysler just by accepting to administer the near bankrupt car manufacturer.

TSMC is much, much more important than salvaging Chrysler.

And I doubt TSMC will put up a single cent towards any of those cutting edge plants. Morris Chang knows the US is kind of desperate. He is playing the Americans like a fiddle.

Tsai Ing-wen is powerless. Morris Chang holds all the cards. I just hope he is wise and capable enough to extract some concessions favoring his business with mainland China.
 

gelgoog

Brigadier
Registered Member
Don't expect too much from Morris. While he is the Chairman of TSMC he isn't the CEO anymore.
I think rumors of massive build of TSMC factories in Arizona with 3nm and everything is plain BS.
They will build a 5nm fab but don't expect more than that in the short term.

Arizona has major issues with water shortages, plus Samsung also had plans to expand their Austin Texas fab to twice the original size but they never had the customer demand to do it. Do you sincerely think TSMC will do such a major expansion with zero customer demand for it?
 
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