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RS226, I presume, would be the ArF immersed laser?
Chinese semiconductor industry
- Thread starter Hendrik_2000
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There's the Founder & Chairman of TSMC saying China is only a few years behind, as compared to your reddit expert @sndef888 saying it is decades or centuries behind. Maybe don't believe every 'expert' on Reddit.
Perhaps respond to him with this and ask why we should believe him over the TSMC Founder & Chairman.
@sinophilia We all know that SMIC right now is 2 generation behind (14nm vs 5nm in production) 1 gen is equivalent to 2 years if we based it on the time plan of each company, SMIC 7NM next year vs TSMC 3nm. By 2025 if the SMEE EUVL came on line that gap will shorten to 1 gen as SMIC will introduced their 5nm and 3nm as reported by Mr Liang vs TSMC 2nm. So since we are talking numbers by 2028 3 Asian companies (TSMC ,SAMSUNG & SMIC) will had the ability to produced 3nm chips and since INTEL is an extension of TSMC we might as well included them as they unabashedly stole TSMC tech.
Of the 4 FABS who will survived beyond 2028? SMIC is China champion, Intel will be the US, Samsung will supply both side as they remain neutral, TSMC? well they're wishing by that time Taiwan had reunify with China....LOL
Of the 4 FABS who will survived beyond 2028? SMIC is China champion, Intel will be the US, Samsung will supply both side as they remain neutral, TSMC? well they're wishing by that time Taiwan had reunify with China....LOL
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Morris Chang is basically comparing TSMC to Samsung and SMIC.
I think we all know here that if there was a level playing field in terms of access to machine tools and other supplies SMIC would at worst be a generation behind or have parity with TSMC at this time. I think Morris is assuming SMIC will be at 7nm this year while TSMC is at 5nm.
The problem is because of the US sanctions SMIC will be severely limited in terms of which tools they can get. Without Chinese tools and other supplies it will be impractical and not economic to go after TSMC and Samsung once SMIC tries to go for 5nm or 3nm.
Even something as simple as ramping up production of 14nm - 7nm production at SMIC might be in jeopardy if the US government follows the recommendation of that AI "expert" commission and denies exports of DUV immersion lithography tools to China in general. Not just EUV.
This is why it is critical for SMEE, or some other Chinese company, to produce viable immersion lithography machine tools.
Chinese industry also needs to provide Huawei with the tools and supplies to manufacture at least at 16nm FinFET over the next 2-3 years I think. That would enable Huawei to manufacture all the high end chips they need for 5G.
I think we all know here that if there was a level playing field in terms of access to machine tools and other supplies SMIC would at worst be a generation behind or have parity with TSMC at this time. I think Morris is assuming SMIC will be at 7nm this year while TSMC is at 5nm.
The problem is because of the US sanctions SMIC will be severely limited in terms of which tools they can get. Without Chinese tools and other supplies it will be impractical and not economic to go after TSMC and Samsung once SMIC tries to go for 5nm or 3nm.
Even something as simple as ramping up production of 14nm - 7nm production at SMIC might be in jeopardy if the US government follows the recommendation of that AI "expert" commission and denies exports of DUV immersion lithography tools to China in general. Not just EUV.
This is why it is critical for SMEE, or some other Chinese company, to produce viable immersion lithography machine tools.
Chinese industry also needs to provide Huawei with the tools and supplies to manufacture at least at 16nm FinFET over the next 2-3 years I think. That would enable Huawei to manufacture all the high end chips they need for 5G.
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In this guy's opinion, Mister Chang thinks China is two years behind the cutting edge in chip fabrication, maximum.
But China is several years behind in providing more capacity, presumably in providing all nodes, which TSMC is aggressively trying to prepare more capacity for.
Mister Chang believes Taiwan will continue to be a cheap place to make chips, which they will undoubtedly sell to China.
In other words ...
This chip war, it is going to turn into a non-factor in 2 years or less.
By then, the US restrictions will still be in place, but will serve no purpose, because others would have moved on.
However, the United States will keep those restrictions in place, because they are sore losers.
By my count, the United States already banned Huawei around 10x times or more. Why 10x times? Usually you only have to ban something once. Banning Huawei 10x times plus, makes them feel good!
Geez, wonder how Huawei is coping on the copium? That's good stuff man!
This chip war, it is going to turn into a non-factor in 2 years or less.
By then, the US restrictions will still be in place, but will serve no purpose, because others would have moved on.
However, the United States will keep those restrictions in place, because they are sore losers.
By my count, the United States already banned Huawei around 10x times or more. Why 10x times? Usually you only have to ban something once. Banning Huawei 10x times plus, makes them feel good!
Geez, wonder how Huawei is coping on the copium? That's good stuff man!
@gelgoog bro do you think that with everything going on he (Morris Chang) is worried about his company future? He being Chinese and had dealings with them know the traits of his race. The fire (Chinese determination) is there, the memory of humiliation all 100 years of it. That fire will never extinguish even if you put obstacle they will found a way to overcome it. Its melodramatic but I can feel it even though I'm a novice regarding Semiconductor, I have strong feeling of some kind of breakthrough is in the works and that get me excited...LOL
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I hope this taught the Chinese government and semiconductor industry that they need to support the tools and materials sector properly.
As for Morris Chang. He is retired. He had already retired once, but the guy he picked as his successor did a terrible job, TSMC started slipping up both in terms of improving processes and allocating their available capacity to customers. NVIDIA threatened to walk out. Morris came back in and straightened out the company. But he is 89 years old now. I do not think he will get back on the saddle again.
He was born in China but he spent a large part of his life in the USA. So you would expect him to be somewhat ambivalent towards the PRC at best. Still he saw that TSMC had to have fabrication facilities in the PRC or it would lose market share.
TSMC has it all going for them to continue being #1 over the next decade as long as they do not slip up. Their competition simply does not have enough capital to invest in factories anymore and the competition's process technology is lagging behind. Even if a company like Intel magically got equivalent technology, they simply cannot fill the factories with capacity and Intel sucks as a fab for 3rd parties. To be honest I think Samsung is more of a challenge long term. Simply because they sell directly to end users and can extract more cash this way.
SMIC could be #1 if it were not for the sanctions I think.
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@gelgoog thanks bro for the info but I have to disagree on your statement regarding SMIC, with the sanction SMIC had the potential to be #1 otherwise she will not. Sanction had unintended consequences it either break you or stiffen your resolved. And without the sanction TSMC will grow even bigger as they had the best chip production processes.
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