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Captain
Changchun Institute is about 5-7 years behind ASML in terms of their respective state of the art systems.
Chinese semiconductor industry
- Thread starter Hendrik_2000
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I see, maybe it is possible to commercialize an inferior machine but one that still can be used to produce 5nm chips? Maybe not the best EUV machine in the world but it can provide an alternative to ASML.
Skywatcher
Captain
The Changchun machine uses an EUV power source close to 125W.
In comparison, the ASML NXE3300 used a 80W source and could do 16nm. The ASML NXE3400B used a 140W and could do 13nm.
I believe a 13nm resolution is necessary for 5nm, though there are other factors like overlay performance (sp) at play.
Got it ok. So not quite there yet for 5nm. What do you think is the smallest node possible? I heard that 3nm essentially is the last node that makes economic sense.
I heard past 7nm, there is issue of silicon losing its semiconducting properties or something where it becomes a conductor at all times meaning you can't turn it off.
Plus your thoughts on 7nm vs 5nm. I heard 5nm is more a marketing ploy than anything else. It doesn't represent a true physical decrease in size.
Guys new poll numbers show that Trump could lose big in November. Now I don't want to get too excited because polls are just polls, and they aren't always accurate as seen in 2016. But if let's say Biden is president how will that impact China's semiconductor industry?
My personal thoughts, Biden won't be much better than Trump. Anti-China is bipartisan right now, at least on the surface.
However, Biden is an old-timer neo-liberal Democrat, I think there are also less China Hawks (No Tom Cotton or Pompeo or Navarro) in the Democratic Party compared to the Republican Party. Plus I think Biden is more amendable to lobbying by US semiconductor companies, then Trump who cares about nothing besides beating down China.
Lastly, with a new president there could be an opportunity for China to try to de-escalate with the US.
It won't be a big improvement but maybe it gives China some breathing room to shore up the remaining technology to decouple from the US in terms of semiconductors.
The downside is that I can see Biden trying to unite US allies against China. But that's not always effective, I think Europe or Japan or South Korea, will pay lip service and issue some condemnation against HR abuses. But I doubt any of them really want a new cold War.
I agree, Biden won't be much better than Trump and could actually be a lot worse. IMO had Clinton been president instead of Trump, Huawei might be in a way worse position than it is in now. At least Trump was very direct and loud in his approach which gave Huawei plenty of time to prepare.
Biden may not be better than Trump, but I don't see how much worse he could be on the Huawei issue? Trump is throwing everything including the kitchen sink at Huawei. Don't see how biden could do more.
I guess we really don't know what biden will be like once elected. But we do know for a fact that Trump is really really bad, so it's probably worth the risk to give Biden a try.
If you define "catch up" by "self reliance" then China is already there for both.
If you mean cutting edge (being one of the leaders) then I would say semis are easier for China.
F-135 equivalent (WS-15) is 2-3 years, GenX equivalent is >10 years away. Whereas Huawei (or other Chinese companies for that matter) is already able to *design* cutting edge semi, it is only a machinery for a *few* critical steps of the production that China lacks. China will overcome these machinery know/how in less than 5 years and never going to look back.
Well I hope your right. But 5 years is an awful long time in the chip world......
Bloomberg thinks KLA, applied materials and LAM are irreplaceable..... But like all western news outlets they constantly underestimate what we are capable of.
The bottom line is that regardless of administration, the U.S. is not going to sit on its hands while China surpasses them. Biden would undoubtedly continue the Huawei crusade. The only difference might be that Biden and the Democrats would be more subtle and less confrontational.
IMO Trump's administration is simply not as coordinated and organized as it could be, which is a huge advantage for China. Trump has also driven away U.S. allies, while I think Biden could reunite them against China.
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