Chinese semiconductor industry


quantumlight

Junior Member
Registered Member
China is way too advanced in semiconductors for US to stop their development. US has only imposed short-term pain, but long-term, China will be the winner because it focuses on self-indigenization of core technologies. Unlike US, China actually has the world's leading market to consuming semiconductors, so the incentive is enormous for self-indigenization.
Moores law been slowing down since 10nm... by 1nm it will be stopped/dead

It will stop making economic sense after 3nm

Even if your smartphone CPU used zero power 70% of your battery goes to powering the screen... next breakthoughs will need to be made in batteries and other areas
 

quantumlight

Junior Member
Registered Member
Not correct, even if China master all technology in the world right now, it would still need to trade for raw resources.

China only has five years of oil left, without imports its economy would collapse.

That fast breeder is at least 20 years away from commercialization and scaling up... minimum... thats not soon enough to save China if the entire world were to cut if off, fusion is much further away

Of course these are extreme examples, Im sure even in absolute worse case some countries would still trade with China but you get the point

China needs to up the infowar game and its pitch to the world should be that US hegemon tax is going to kill the world by constriction and that a strong counterbalancing China is in the best interest of mankind, that China can offer the world a better deal.

Biden already pitching "America is Back" meanwhile Trump says he is presumptive nominee 2024

Its all an elaborate act, the US inflicting 5th Gen infowar on the world

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May 15th 2021??
 

AndrewS

Major
Registered Member
Not correct, even if China master all technology in the world right now, it would still need to trade for raw resources.

China only has five years of oil left, without imports its economy would collapse.

China has more than 5 years of oil.
Plus you can see China is diversifying oil imports over both land and sea.
 

daifo

Junior Member
Registered Member
China has more than 5 years of oil.
Plus you can see China is diversifying oil imports over both land and sea.

China is likely preferring using up the world's/competitors oil now while oil is plenty/cheaper before using/developing up local resources
 

Asko

Just Hatched
Registered Member
I can't understand that China has a problem with advanced semiconductors. As far as I know, China has money and that is crucial for success. In order to succeed, it has to play badly like America did to be the first, it has to use blackmail, bribery, hacking, threats and working in secret. Why not pick up secrets from Dutch ASML and American lens companies through various channels, everything can be bought for money.
 

quantumlight

Junior Member
Registered Member
I can't understand that China has a problem with advanced semiconductors. As far as I know, China has money and that is crucial for success. In order to succeed, it has to play badly like America did to be the first, it has to use blackmail, bribery, hacking, threats and working in secret. Why not pick up secrets from Dutch ASML and American lens companies through various channels, everything can be bought for money.
Not that easy, America has woke up, its now politics before money/economics

This whole thing is more closely guarded than ITAR

Chinese bought a EUV machine back in 2018, it mysteriously caught on fire before delivery and then Trump forced Dutch not to renew export license

ASML wont even hire workers that look Chinese...

Tiawan is protecting TSMC like its only crown jewel, the whole islands cybersecurity is probably focused on it
 

AndrewS

Major
Registered Member
Moores law been slowing down since 10nm... by 1nm it will be stopped/dead

It will stop making economic sense after 3nm

Even if your smartphone CPU used zero power 70% of your battery goes to powering the screen... next breakthoughs will need to be made in batteries and other areas

I think it's too early to say that 3nm is the economic limit.

Power consumption still matters a lot with datacentres where the chips are running all the time.

So lower electricity costs could make up for a higher processor cost
 

Asko

Just Hatched
Registered Member
Not that easy, America has woke up, its now politics before money/economics

This whole thing is more closely guarded than ITAR

Chinese bought a EUV machine back in 2018, it mysteriously caught on fire before delivery and then Trump forced Dutch not to renew export license

ASML wont even hire workers that look Chinese...

Tiawan is protecting TSMC like its only crown jewel, the whole islands cybersecurity is probably focused on it
TSMC is irrelevant, China has experts who will do the job like Taiwanese. As for ASML, every worker has his family, friends, according to acquaintances, one can always reach a 1000 engineer through someone and give him a billion for projects. Better one billion to him than to spend 20 billion and 5-10 years of work.
 

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