Chinese semiconductor industry

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ansy1968

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Actually, China is ahead of Taiwan and South Korea in EUV and DUV lithography. Soon will see spring up of supply chain in those areas in China that will be envy for Taiwan and South Korea.

The above two are only end users and had to pay premium for those equipments.

China can set itself free with lower cost and restrictions

US is determines to steal TSMC and Samsung know-how by forcing it them setup advanced fabs in US. US will eventually master the 5nm, 3nm tech from those two.
@Oldschool

The ironic thing is by hurting China they make her even stronger , tough love as we Chinese often use hehehe. The US may get the 5nm and 3nm tech, but moving forward they will be left behind cause they don't have the core competency required unless they invest in new tech now!!!
 

Oldschool

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@Oldschool

The ironic thing is by hurting China they make her even stronger , tough love as we Chinese often use hehehe. The US may get the 5nm and 3nm tech, but moving forward they will be left behind cause they don't have the core competency required unless they invest in new tech now!!!
US fell behind in semiconductor and I think they are done.

With regarding to TSMC and Samsung, China can out compete with them by self sufficiency at low, middle and entry high level at semiconductor.

At current point, TSMC and Samsung has 5nm and hypothetically if China has complete self sufficiency at 14nm to 10nm (equipments and materials) which it doesn't have this point. If it does it will solve all their need for 5g base station, desktop, laptop, automotive, mddile level cellphone, dram, nand, ..pretty much all except leading edge cellphone.
At same time , put Samsung and tsmc under entity list in China and restricted them except their leading edge product. Like put TSMC 16nm at Nanjing out of business.

I can see TSMC and Samsung being neutralized if China have core self competencies at middle and entry high level semiconductor

Projecting forward, if TSMC and Samsung has 3nm/2nm, China can neutralize them if they got self sufficiency at EUV 7nm/5nm
 

Chish

Junior Member
Registered Member
Anyone can be self sufficient. You can be self sufficient with sticks and stones. China can go back to the 8088 clone and be self sufficient. :)But it means nothing if you are not as good or better than the best.

Samsung and TSMC really are Asian companies whose economies are more tied to China than the US in the long run.
Either you are missing the point or intentionally doing so. You do know China high tech strategies are long-term, spanning decades and they have been making progress. If the chinese have been failings as you claimed, they would not be blacklisted, sanctioned or banned outright.
However I will give you the benefits of the doubt in believing that China failed even before they started. This should make you very happy and I can live with that.
 

Nobonita Barua

Senior Member
Registered Member
US is determines to steal TSMC and Samsung know-how by forcing it them setup advanced fabs in US. US will eventually master the 5nm, 3nm tech from those two.
Sorry, but if you ask anyone with background of computer science, i think pretty much everyone will agree that it will do no good.
In case of jet engines or other technologies, you get your hands on IP, you can remake it upto certain point. In case of software & hardware, they involved revolutionary changes in every step. First Intel CPU is nothing look like any modern CPU. And i aint talking about fabrication yet.
We have a saying, to do reverse- engineering, you have to be engineer first. US is massively dependent on imported brains, where i expect stiff competition going forward given China's economy & interest.
Money alone wont do any good if you don't have the skilled manpower who can dissect a 5nm or 3nm chip, then help US take the next step. Even with those 5nm & 3nm, US will jump start to nowhere. That's why during the entire chip war saga, you can realize US never for a single time mentioned it's intention to master the advanced nodes. Because it can't. It's trying to leverage something else to influence ASML, SoKo, Japan.
If you ask me, i will be straight forward, US has never been an innovator. It has been accumulator.
 

Oldschool

Junior Member
Registered Member
Either you are missing the point or intentionally doing so. You do know China high tech strategies are long-term, spanning decades and they have been making progress. If the chinese have been failings as you claimed, they would not be blacklisted, sanctioned or banned outright.
However I will give you the benefits of the doubt in believing that China failed even before they started. This should make you very happy and I can live with that.
In terms of deficiencies , at this particular moment China is at its lowest point. Its hunkering down with defensive posture by hoarding parts and equipments

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It can't get any worst, or the best moment some folks can hope for in terms how low China semiconductor industry can go.

But it's the pandemics and countries tend to buy more low and medium ended goods and China has the highest trade surplus than any country.

The tide most likely will turn within couple years.
 

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
US fell behind in semiconductor and I think they are done.

With regarding to TSMC and Samsung, China can out compete with them by self sufficiency at low, middle and entry high level at semiconductor.

At current point, TSMC and Samsung has 5nm and hypothetically if China has complete self sufficiency at 14nm to 10nm (equipments and materials) which it doesn't have this point. If it does it will solve all their need for 5g base station, desktop, laptop, automotive, mddile level cellphone, dram, nand, ..pretty much all except leading edge cellphone.
At same time , put Samsung and tsmc under entity list in China and restricted them except their leading edge product. Like put TSMC 16nm at Nanjing out of business.

I can see TSMC and Samsung being neutralized if China have core self competencies at middle and entry high level semiconductor

Projecting forward, if TSMC and Samsung has 3nm/2nm, China can neutralize them if they got self sufficiency at EUV 7nm/5nm
@Oldschool

1 gen behind TSMC for me is a victory for China, man TSMC is a beast, Samsung 5nm is equivalent to TSMC 7nm (EUVL version). That's how far ahead of the competition they are. And Bro I'm not begrudging TSMC and Samsung both are Asian and they work hard to become what they are today. For me they set an example for China to follow and in the future may aid her with train experience talents for prospective recruitment as China expand its IC.
 

Oldschool

Junior Member
Registered Member
@Oldschool

1 gen behind TSMC for me is a victory for China, man TSMC is a beast, Samsung 5nm is equivalent to TSMC 7nm (EUVL version). That's how far ahead of the competition they are. And Bro I'm not begrudging TSMC and Samsung both are Asian and they work hard to become what they are today. For me they set an example for China to follow and in the future may aid her with train experience talents for prospective recruitment as China expand its IC.
Their lead may be stagnated in forseeable future.

Not sure 1nm due to quantum effect and doesn't matter even if they have better tech than EUV.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Via xyz the DE Americanization ball start rolling. Now Huawei and other manufacturer are investing in start up for material and semi tool They should done it 10 years ago but it is better late than never. I have no doubt they will overcome the tech embargo in a year or two. It is to late to play tech embargo the horse has left the barn already. The west should do it 10 years ago then China will be toast!

chinamoneynetwork.com
The Ball Of De-Americanization Starts Rolling As China Seeks Secure Supply Chains
China Money AI
5-6 minutes


There were 413 equity investment cases in the domestic semiconductor industry in 2020, with an investment amount of more than RMB140 billion yuan, which is nearly five times as much as the investment of about RMB30 billion yuan recorded in 2019, according to statistics released by WINSOUL CAPITAL.

This is also the year when Chinese investors have invested the most in the private market (not counting investments related to publicly listed companies) of semiconductors in history.

Due to the strong demand for imports replacement highlighted by US export bans that put some Chinese companies to the verge of collapse, many semiconductor companies have experienced rapid growth in their performance in the past year. For venture and private investments, investors are favoring those with more mature outlook with investment after series C round increasing significantly.

These are clear signs that the ball of de-Americanization has started rolling in China, particularly in the semiconductors industry. Chinese companies are likely to try to establish import replacement products domestically, as well as seeking any other help outside of China in third party countries in their pursuit of securing more reliable supply chains.

The semiconductor industry chain can be roughly divided into design, manufacturing, packaging and testing, materials, and equipment. Semiconductor design does not require high investment and is therefore still the focus of investment, accounting for nearly 70% of the total investment cases in the semiconductor field in China last year.

But it is worth noting that the investment cases in the field of semiconductor materials and equipment, which were relatively unpopular with investors in the past, grew rapidly in 2020. The proportion of the total amount increased from 13% in 2019 to 19% in 2020.

According to statistics from WINSOUL CAPITAL, the total financing amount in the semiconductor materials field exceeded RMB12 billion yuan, and the total financing amount in the equipment field exceeded RMB6 billion yuan. However, projects in these two fields are generally still in the early stages, with the proportion of series B round and previous ones taking over 50% of the total.

Chinese companies suffering from the export bans are increasing investment in these areas as well. For example, Huawei invested in 2 materials companies in 2019, but invested in 7 materials and equipment companies in 2020. SMIC’s investment platform SMIC Juyuan also invested in 7 materials and equipment companies in 2020, more than the four companies it invested in 2019.

Compared with pure financial investments, companies prefer taking industrial strategic capital. "Many founders would rather want money from industrial capital than from well-known financial investment institutions, even if they had to give industrial capital discounts on valuation," said Zhao Zhanxiang, managing director of WINSOUL CAPITAL. It is because industrial capital can bring more industrial resources.

Huwei’s Hubble Investment, Xindongneng under BOE, and Chinese phone maker OPPO are more active strategic investors in the semiconductor sector.

WINSOUL CAPITAL believes that semiconductor investment will enter a more challenging period in the future. The directions that companies and investors will focus on include those with low localization rates and large chips, such as EDA/IP, CPU, GPU, FPGA, network processing chips, automotive chips, memory chips.


For semiconductor investment in 2021, WINSOUL CAPITAL also recommends focusing on companies with guaranteed production capacity, because as wafer production capacity continues to be tight and chip prices continue to rise, the performance of companies with guaranteed production capacity will increase significantly.

In addition, driven by new technologies such as 5G and AI, the corresponding chip niche industry will grow rapidly with the rapid downstream applications, and there may be opportunities for rapid commercialization in related fields.

In the past year, semiconductors are undoubtedly one of the most watched sectors of China’s Sci-tech Innovation Board. Wind data shows that there are currently 216 listed companies on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, of which 36 are semiconductor companies, accounting for 16%.

For the entire year of 2020, the average market value of semiconductor companies increased by about 40% to 50%. The market value of semiconductor companies has accounted for 30% of the total market value of the Sci-tech Innovation Board.

However, since the second half of last year, the market value of listed semiconductor companies was considered to be too high. The stock prices of semiconductor companies have begun to fall back to a more rational level.
 
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Alb

New Member
Registered Member
SMIC Q4 figures are out today. From the presentation material it looks like SMIC is giving up on advanced nodes. Investments this year will be mainly on non Finfet fabs. Revenue from advanced nodes have collapsed this quarter. I was hoping that despite the US ban SMIC would pursue advanced nodes anyway but apparently they have chosen short term profit vs long term technology indeprndence.

Neddless to say that that Huawei mobile phones business has no future without SMIC support for 14nm/7nm. Huawei is running out of chopsets for its smartphone business.
 
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manqiangrexue

Brigadier
SMIC Q4 figures are out today. From the presentation material it looks like SMIC is giving up on advanced nodes. Investments this year will be mainly on non Finfet fabs. Revenue from advanced nodes have collapsed this quarter. I was hoping that despite the US ban SMIC would pursue advanced nodes anyway but apparently they have chosen short term profit vs long term technology indeprndence.
Could you post whatever you saw that makes you think that SMIC is giving up? Also, according to Dr. Liang, SMIC's designs all the way up to 3nm are ready, just waiting for the lithograph so that might explain why they're not investing much more at this time. They're ahead waiting for the bottleneck.
Neddless to say that that Huawei mobile phones business has no future without SMIC support for 14nm/7nm. Huawei is running out of chopsets for its smartphone business.
Although it may be a short term hindrance, Huawei is not a company to sit it out and wait for SMIC. Although SMIC's semiconductor designs are ahead, Huawei has invested in its own fabs are is expected to advance very rapidly once the lithographs are available.
 
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