Chinese semiconductor industry

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ansy1968

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It will be interesting to see what happens to Samsung and TSMC's fabs in America. I assume they have to go through with it. However, both companies will be seeing under utilization pressures in the next couple of years.
Sir the TSMC Arizona FAB had an initial Capacity to produce 20,000 WPM, so NO plan for further expansion, the same can be said for Samsung, They will take the money from the Americans however small, take a lost from their US investment and moved on.
It's been reported that China import 43 billion fewer chips in the first 7 months of this year and its export increased by 2 folds. They've now reached 1 billion chip a day in production. So yes, China ramping up production is going to be a huge problem for all the companies that relied on importing to China. This worldwide demand drop has now cut down any Chinese expansion plans from what I can see. That means they will be able to gain market share the next couple of years. Power/auto sectors will see more purchases of Chinese IGBTs. Chinese phone and computer companies will buy more DRAMs and flash memory from CXMT and YMTC.

The Koreans have already warned that their semiconductor industry is entirely reliant on Chinese sales and supply chain. Hopefully, TSMC and Mediatek will be at the same position in a couple of years. Again, this is the most opportune time for China to be importing talents from rest of the world.
Sir there are reports of TSMC underutilization of their very profitable and important 7nm and 6nm node coupled with their recent massive expansion in Kaohsiung, There is a huge demand in China and they were not allowed to services those demands, I'm thinking maybe while the window still open, they may make a break and go for broke. ;) I'm speculating of course BUT with your entire business is on the line, they have to do some serious thinking to stay buoyant.;)
 

hvpc

Junior Member
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The first two ones are biddings for exposure machines, Guangdong and Hunan, the third one is for some project in Shanghai, the last ones are annealing equipment.
Once again, none of SMEE's winning bids are for FE lithography system.

The first two biddings on the list are for a company that's involved in the packaging sector:
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tokenanalyst

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Exactly this. Without these... genius revolutionaries, shall I say... My most ambitious hope for China would've been another South Korea. Making chips for others, maybe some design for domestic or internal use, a few tools, but not comprehensive, because in lithography everyone obviously depends on ASML, EDA is low margin anyways, etc.

But now they woke the beast and it is unprecedented the degree of independence that Chinese semiconductor industry is aiming for. Literally without precedent, since even Japan never had a strong semiconductor industry in EDA and CPU design and even US lacks lithography and doesn't have scale in display, power, etc.
They will have a big semiconductor industry by global standards but it will be disjointed. Lot of companies going for niches markets were the big player are less common, iot, low end cpus, some AI, Espressifs, Allwinners and Rockchips. Few equipment companies in some processes like AMEC and Naura. Some niche EDA companies. Some goverment ventures. Some success in power electronics due china big NEV industry.
The situation has change and given the shear economic and technological size of China this could have tectonic shift consequences in the whole industry and not in the way that the American hawks would have liked. Is fair to remember that any company who gets big in China gets big globally.
 

tokenanalyst

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None on this bidding on the list is FE lithography system.

The first two biddings on the list are for a company that's involved in the packaging sector:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Already responded to that.
They usually don't post details. A lot of advance packaging is done in Guangdong and in Hunan there is a lot power semiconductors manufacturing, Sanan is there. The weirdest one is the third, a project in Shanghai.
SMEE immersion machines are part project 02, so this are contract machines, so i don't think this there will be bidding for the 28nm machine, those machines will be just delivered. A bidding will mean that SMEE will have to compete with the heavy weights ASML and Nikon and at this stage of development is not possible
AS for FE machines, it have to be done in contracts, SMEE cannot compete in bidding for now directly with the heavyweights, , the point is to secure the supply of lithography machines by having systems integrators and subsystems suppliers.
 

hvpc

Junior Member
Registered Member
so, I actually did my own estimation on this topic based on various articles I looked through. They are in this thread. Feel free to look up the sources I posted. I will start off by saying something basic. Tinrobert mentioned that each 50k wpm of 28 nm production needs 10 DUVs and each 50k wpm of 7 nm production needs 20 DUVs. I'm not in the industry, so I can't verify whether his numbers are more accurate or your number. But I would say that his numbers seemed logical based on the R&D of equipment that was discussed.
Assumptions you referenced from @tinrobert is incorrect. 10DUV is not enough for 50K wpm of 28nm. No scanners or steppers available today is that fast. I will spare you the details since you are not going to believe me anyway.

But, you can go research:
- how many litho steps it take to make a 28nm wafer
- how fast a scanner/stepper can expose a wafer
- when ASML/Nikon/Canon/SMEE say for example 220 wph, the 'wafer' here means single exposure of a wafer
- by the way, this is the theoretical maximum throughput based on ideal conditions.

To be close to reality, you'll also need to consider (estimate) the scanner availability (uptime, utilization rate), wafer yield, wafer rework rate, etc.

Once you have all this info you could determine number of scanners required and conclude if my/@tinrobert's estimate is correct.
And keep in mind that the 28 nm and higher factories actually are going to be producing a lot of 45/55 nm chips and possibly even more mature than that. So, it would be a mistake for example to assume that they even need 20 DUVs for 100k wpm.
28/45/55nm are all planar process. The total litho steps to build a chip is quite similar. The main differences is distribution of each layers of the chip between scanners of varying capabilities (iLine, KrF, ArF, ArFi).

Some variation do exist between the chip design and process. 28nm typically have a few more metal/via layers, so 45nm node would roughly be 44-46 litho steps. The difference are in the number of iLine layers and saving of $10M.

Besides, I'm sure SMIC already determine the intended product mix to come up with the $7 to 8B announced CAPEx. For reference, a true 100% 28nm fab like the on UMC is building in Singapore costs $3.6B for 30K wpm or $12B for 100K wpm.
Now, we do know that SMEE has already delivered SSA600 to SMIC.
I don't think SMIC ever took delivery of SSA600. SMIC did take delivery of a SSB600 a few years ago, but that tool was never qualified for HVM. I inferred from information from others in the industry that Yangdong may have took on the challenge to help SMEE qualify a 200mm SSA600/20.
But based on the fact that the recent news report proudly mentioned that Shanghai has the ability to mass produce 90nm lithography machines, I would imagine SMIC is getting its share of SSA600s.
I think you misunderstood what SSA600's true capability is. But that's okay, I have not seen anyone share anything of substance beyond the info ("claims") that's published on SMEE's website.

It's widely known in the industry SMEE reverse engineer the SSA600/10 off of ASML's old scanner. SSA600 is based on very old technology that was introduced in the late 1990s for 200mm wafers production. Looking at its 0.75NA lens, it was reverse engineered from ASML PAS5500/1150C. SMEE published many papers on SSA600/10 & SSA600/20 this past decade. Hardware, software, and specifications given in those papers are consistent with the 'reverse engineered' narrative.

The SSA600 was never qualified in the field by any fabs. But if it was verified to have met all its specifications, it would have:
- resolution limit of 90nm
- throughput of >130wph @ 200mm
- 300mm wafer has more area to cover than 200mm
- at tool acceptance condition, 300mm is based on 96 & 200mm on 46 exposure fields (in reality, fields/wafer number is generally higher so actual throughput on product will be lower)
- so if SSA600 is used on 300mm wafers the ideal tool acceptance test throughput specification would be closer to >65wph
- this (very low throughput) is why only a 20W 4KHz laser is required & used

In contrast, a modern day Nikon/ASML ArF scanners all have 0.93 NA with resolution limit around 65nm with throughput in excess of 230wph (300mm wafers).

Even the modern day Nikon/ASML/Canon KrF scanners have higher NA that ranges between 0.80 to 0.93 with resolution limit of 80nm and throughput up to 330wph.

With the old ArF technology, SSA600/20, even if it works properly, what would be its place in the fab. An ArF scanner that underperforms a KrF scanner with much larger Cost-per-wafer would have a hard time finding a niche in a HVM fab.

All specifications in this last subject matter/section could be compiled off public info online. I verified each of them while typing this up.
 
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Weaasel

Senior Member
Registered Member
Assumptions you referenced from @tinrobert is incorrect. 10DUV is not enough for 50K wpm of 28nm. No scanners or steppers available today is that fast. I will spare you the details since you are not going to believe me anyway.

But, you can go research:
- how many litho steps it take to make a 28nm wafer
- how fast a scanner/stepper can expose a wafer
- when ASML/Nikon/Canon/SMEE say for example 220 wph, the 'wafer' here means single exposure of a wafer
- by the way, this is the theoretical maximum throughput based on ideal conditions.

To be close to reality, you'll also need to consider (estimate) the scanner availability (uptime, utilization rate), wafer yield, wafer rework rate, etc.

Once you have all this info you could determine number of scanners required and conclude if my/@tinrobert's estimate is correct.

28/45/55nm are all planar process. The total litho steps to build a chip is quite similar. The main differences is distribution of each layers of the chip between scanners of varying capabilities (iLine, KrF, ArF, ArFi).

Some variation do exist between the chip design and process. 28nm typically have a few more metal/via layers, so 45nm node would roughly be 44-46 litho steps. The difference are in the number of iLine layers and saving of $10M.

Besides, I'm sure SMIC already determine the intended product mix to come up with the $7 to 8B announced CAPEx. For reference, a true 100% 28nm fab like the on UMC is building in Singapore costs $3.6B for 30K wpm or $12B for 100K wpm.

I don't think SMIC ever took delivery of SSA600. SMIC did take delivery of a SSB600 a few years ago, but that tool was never qualified for HVM. I inferred from information from others in the industry that Yangdong may have took on the challenge to help SMEE qualify a 200mm SSA600/20.

I think you misunderstood what SSA600's true capability is. But that's okay, I have not seen anyone share anything of substance beyond the info ("claims") that's published on SMEE's website.

It's widely known in the industry SMEE reverse engineer the SSA600/10 off of ASML's old scanner. SSA600 is based on very old technology that was introduced in the late 1990s for 200mm wafers production. Looking at its 0.75NA lens, it was reverse engineered from ASML PAS5500/1150C. SMEE published many papers on SSA600/10 & SSA600/20 this past decade. Hardware, software, and specifications given in those papers are consistent with the 'reverse engineered' narrative.

The SSA600 was never qualified in the field by any fabs. But if it was verified to have met all its specifications, it would have:
- resolution limit of 90nm
- throughput of >130wph @ 200mm
- 300mm wafer has more area to cover than 200mm
- at tool acceptance condition, 300mm is based on 96 & 200mm on 46 exposure fields (in reality, fields/wafer number is generally higher so actual throughput on product will be lower)
- so if SSA600 is used on 300mm wafers the ideal tool acceptance test throughput specification would be closer to >65wph
- this (very low throughput) is why only a 20W 4KHz laser is required & used

In contrast, a modern day Nikon/ASML ArF scanners all have 0.93 NA with resolution limit around 65nm with throughput in excess of 230wph (300mm wafers).

Even the modern day Nikon/ASML/Canon KrF scanners have higher NA that ranges between 0.80 to 0.93 with resolution limit of 80nm and throughput up to 330wph.

With the old ArF technology, SSA600/20, even if it works properly, what would be its place in the fab. An ArF scanner that underperforms a KrF scanner with much larger Cost-per-wafer would have a hard time finding a niche in a HVM fab.

All specifications in this last subject matter/section could be compiled off public info online. I verified each of them while typing this up.
Are there any commercial DUV lithography machines of 90 nm or better that utilize more than one photomask per wafer for 12 inch wafers, or do all commercial lithography machines use a single photomask per wafer?
 

Weaasel

Senior Member
Registered Member
An addendum, I'm not a religious person in fact I'm one of its sceptic, BUT certainly there is a invisible hand helping the Chinese, this Semiconductor downturn may last 2 years, heck with massive investment in extra capacity it may last even longer. It will give China the benefit of time to increase her production capabilities and core tech development. The prophesied Made in China 2025 is happening and is accelerating right before our own eyes. Five years ago (2017) I never expected it to happen this fast in fact I despair for what happen to Huawei, now I'm a certified fanboy with large dose of optimism. ;) And it had become a habit of mine to speculate cause China always deliver and the satisfaction one's get when proven right.:D
You are the most optimistic and enthusiastic person on this forum when it comes to China's IC chip and semiconductor industry development.
 

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
You are the most optimistic and enthusiastic person on this forum when it comes to China's IC chip and semiconductor industry development.
Bro It's a complement and I thank you for that, having join this forum in 2020, I learned a lot and the despair I felt back then had evaporate, I never knew that China had the tools and having join the discussion, I learned even more that China can overcome it. 2025 is the inflection point and I believe with news of new breakthrough China can deliver. ;)
 

tokenanalyst

Brigadier
Registered Member
I think you misunderstood what SSA600's true capability is. But that's okay, I have not seen anyone share anything of substance beyond the info ("claims") that's published on SMEE's website.

It's widely known in the industry SMEE reverse engineer the SSA600/10 off of ASML's old scanner. SSA600 is based on very old technology that was introduced in the late 1990s for 200mm wafers production. Looking at its 0.75NA lens, it was reverse engineered from ASML PAS5500/1150C. SMEE published many papers on SSA600/10 & SSA600/20 this past decade. Hardware, software, and specifications given in those papers are consistent with the 'reverse engineered' narrative.

The SSA600 was never qualified in the field by any fabs. But if it was verified to have met all its specifications, it would have:
- resolution limit of 90nm
- throughput of >130wph @ 200mm
- 300mm wafer has more area to cover than 200mm
- at tool acceptance condition, 300mm is based on 96 & 200mm on 46 exposure fields (in reality, fields/wafer number is generally higher so actual throughput on product will be lower)
- so if SSA600 is used on 300mm wafers the ideal tool acceptance test throughput specification would be closer to >65wph
- this (very low throughput) is why only a 20W 4KHz laser is required & used

In contrast, a modern day Nikon/ASML ArF scanners all have 0.93 NA with resolution limit around 65nm with throughput in excess of 230wph (300mm wafers).

Even the modern day Nikon/ASML/Canon KrF scanners have higher NA that ranges between 0.80 to 0.93 with resolution limit of 80nm and throughput up to 330wph.

With the old ArF technology, SSA600/20, even if it works properly, what would be its place in the fab. An ArF scanner that underperforms a KrF scanner with much larger Cost-per-wafer would have a hard time finding a niche in a HVM fab.

All specifications in this last subject matter/section could be compiled off public info online. I verified each of them while typing this up.
I don't know is this thread is getting too long but I already posted information about their DUV scanners in my older post, you can't say that nobody already posted that information without looking back to the older posts and don't take it in a bad way dude but the information that you posted is from 2011 is more than 10 years old.

2014 U-Presicion dual wafer stage
2018 RSlaser 40W 4KHZ ArF laser with the goal to reach 60W 6KHZ soon or is already delivered, we don't know.
2018 Changchun UP Optotech Co., Ltd. adquisition by E-Town with the construction of massive research facility for optics

Again nothing personal dude but we cannot know the current stage of China lithography technology by just looking old information from 10 years ago. I know they are not yet at the level of ASML but they are in a much better position than 10 years ago. That is why focus in looking into patents and research papers trying to decipher some more modern current information

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