Chinese Engine Development


aliaselin

Just Hatched
Registered Member
well if the batch 3 of J15 turns to WS-Series then we could truly say that China in 2020 has fully mastered the turbofan, that was a long and bloody journey
What do you mean by saying "mastered the turbofan"? Difference turbofan has different level of technology and different uses. It is not what you think but depends on condition
 

Inst

Senior Member
What do you mean by saying "mastered the turbofan"? Difference turbofan has different level of technology and different uses. It is not what you think but depends on condition

There are likewise different generations of turbofans. For instance, is the WS-10 a better product that the TF-40s that powered the F-14s, and were blamed for being underperforming and unreliable?
 

anzha

Junior Member
Registered Member
A regulator stock exchange filing by the Hebei subsidiary of China’s Central Iron & Steel Research (CISRI) has disclosed the production numbers of military engines for the next decade.

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The numbers do not look encouraging, if accurate, for the new engines to be introduced.
 

Totoro

Captain
VIP Professional
Numbers look quite credible to me. Ws19 is timed for j-31 (or vice versa)and that wont get into serial production for another 5 years or so.

Ws15 is also who knows how far away from being ready. The very fact we are now seeing ws10 on j20 means ws15 is likely st least 5 years away from serial production. Otherwise there would be little sense in changing j20 engines every few years.
 

taxiya

Colonel
Registered Member
From the same "filing" or report by CISRI, I find two things interesting.
  1. XS-15: low volume trial production 小批量试制
  2. PD-14 and PD-35 engine casing: predicted volume 300 per year. SURPRISE!!!
Regarding the number "5 per year through 2026" for "engine 15"
  1. 5 per year is a good match for low volume trial production. One does not make a lot of them when the final technical and manufacturing details are not settled yet.
  2. through 2026 may be disappointing to some people, BUT then isn't 2025 always the target for volume production? This date was not changed since I began to follow 15's progress years ago. A commercial company giving itself a bit margin is IMO perfectly alright.
 

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ZeEa5KPul

Senior Member
Registered Member
through 2026 may be disappointing to some people, BUT then isn't 2025 always the target for volume production? This date was not changed since I began to follow 15's progress years ago. A commercial company giving itself a bit margin is IMO perfectly alright.
It's worse than that. The company projects 5 engines per year with a 20% share in 2020 (meaning 25 engines in total). They project 5 engines in 2026 with a 50% share - so they aren't being shy, they think they'll be going from 20% to 50% of the market in 6 years. If it were true, total production would fall from 25 now to 10 in 2026. That just doesn't pass the smell test.

The charitable interpretation is that this is probably an intern who copypasted columns without properly changing the entries. Unfortunately, this is such a flagrant error that the entire source should be totally discounted.
 

latenlazy

Colonel
5 per year from 2020 to 2026 actually looks pretty good for an engine that we’re not sure is even done with development testing. If they’re making five a year that would imply all the development testing is pretty much done, and they’re primarily in pre-production and low rate initial production phases of the project now.
 

taxiya

Colonel
Registered Member
It's worse than that. The company projects 5 engines per year with a 20% share now (meaning 25 engines in total). They project 5 engines in 2026 with a 50% share - so they aren't being shy, they think they'll be going from 20% to 50% of the market in 6 years. Like I said, this is probably an intern who copypasted columns without properly changing the entries. If it were true, total production would fall from 25 now to 10 in 2026. That just doesn't pass the smell test.
Why do you insist that this is a "intern copy/paste" mistake? This is a legal document of the company to the stock regulator. Or are you expecting a public "correction" of the "mistake"? It certainly will come IF indeed an error.
 

ZeEa5KPul

Senior Member
Registered Member
Why do you insist that this is a "intern copy/paste" mistake? This is a legal document of the company to the stock regulator. Or are you expecting a public "correction" of the "mistake"? It certainly will come IF indeed an error.
Why would total production fall from 25 WS-15 engines in 2020 to 10 in 2026? We're among friends so I don't mind stating aloud that the Chinese stock market is a fraudulent pile of crap, so its regulators don't impress me.
 

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