Chinese Economics Thread

tokenanalyst

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
That's ppp not nominal. GDP ppp measures domestic purchasing power while nominal measures International purchasing power. 2 different concepts. China needs to surpass the USA in the nominal GDP to be seen as truly the largest economy.
NOPE, RAW OUTPUT is the REAL METRIC of a economy. Nominal is just PPP adjusted the currency, So if the Yuan all the sudden strengthen against that dollar China nominal GDP will grow overnight.

If the dollar collapse this year due, IDK, some Middle East Oil crisis, China will become the biggest economy in nominals terms.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
China to surpass the USA around 2035 by the size of economy. China to remain first through 2050s, but it will slide to second by 2075 due to an aging society.
Generally, the closer the date, the more accurate the prediction. I say part A is true (unless China supresses the RMB) and part C is a shot in the dark.
That's ppp not nominal. GDP ppp measures domestic purchasing power while nominal measures International purchasing power. 2 different concepts. China needs to surpass the USA in the nominal GDP to be seen as truly the largest economy.
If China surpassed the US in nominal GDP, it would be the undisputed largest economy. PPP is for the domestic economy; nominal is for international trade. Every healthy economy is majority (>70%) domestic. So PPP is about a couple times more important than nominal. In China's case, it's about 3X. China is already truly the largest economy.
If US GDP figures include imputed rent, why don't they include imputed sex work? That way, each time the lards wank, they can add to the national GDP and masturbate America to greatness again.
China's GDP is tech and manufacturing; American GDP is education debt, interest fees, healthcare bills and litigation costs. A ingot of steel vs a brick of mud and hay with gold spray paint.
 
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Michael90

Senior Member
Registered Member
China to surpass the USA around 2035 by the size of economy. China to remain first through 2050s, but it will slide to second by 2075 due to an aging society.
This 40 years predictions are admirable for economic reasons but they are not realistic. It's good for us to make predictions given the data and facts we have from the past, present and how we forecast the future .
However, we can never really be sure or guess what will even happen tomorrow much less 40Years from now. Who could have predicted a global war like WWII, British empires fall from grace as rhe largest empire in mankind, US emergence as a quasi superpower, the Soviet unions rapid rise and fall, the covid pandemic that sapped much of the worlds economy and countries and led to the call for rearrangement of supply chains we see today etc etc.
In short we humans are limited in predicting the future. So the most we can do is predict things a few months ahead. Anything of more than a year is a fallacy. Lol
 

Michael90

Senior Member
Registered Member
Generally, the closer the date, the more accurate the prediction. I say part A is true (unless China supresses the RMB) and part C is a shot in the dark.

If China surpassed the US in nominal GDP, it would be the undisputed largest economy. PPP is for the domestic economy; nominal is for international trade. Every healthy economy is majority (>70%) domestic. So PPP is about a couple times more important than nominal. In China's case, it's about 3X. China is already truly the largest economy.

China's GDP is tech and manufacturing; American GDP is education debt, interest fees, healthcare bills and litigation costs. A ingot of steel vs a brick of mud and hay with gold spray paint.
Very wrong to say the US just education debt, interest fees and brick of mud. Seriously sometimes i feel like some people on this forum act like indians towards countries they dont like. Lol. Reminds me of those anti china people whonclaim chinas economy is only low cost forced slave labour, copy cat, cheap goods, building empty ghost cities to add to GDP etc etc. Lol
We shouldn't go to that level. To say US economy is just brick mud and interests fees is just so ridiculous, since if that was the case, China wont even need to worry at all about the US and they could easily handle the US without breaking a sweat. This of course is totally false. People should remain humble and be rational/pragmatic like Chinese leaders. If most Chinese people/leaders start having the mentality i see on some people here of underestimating others and thinking they are at the top and better than everyone else , then that will be the day their decline will actually start. I didnt even expect to see such thibking this early when china is still in her development stage . At least become the undisputed number one globally before start making such remarks.

I guess we shouldn't be surprised why they say every superpower/reigning empire last about 250 years more or less on average bedore the rot and decline sets in, which makes sense as thats the time it takes for those who suffered hardships to build the country/system before their grand kids(and subsequent generation) generation who grew up only knowing in abundance take over and the arrogance/complacency starts setting in. Its only human i guess.
 

tokenanalyst

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Very wrong to say the US just education debt, interest fees and brick of mud. Seriously sometimes i feel like some people on this forum act like indians towards countries they dont like. Lol. Reminds me of those anti china people whonclaim chinas economy is only low cost forced slave labour, copy cat, cheap goods, building empty ghost cities to add to GDP etc etc. Lol
We shouldn't go to that level. To say US economy is just brick mud and interests fees is just so ridiculous, since if that was the case, China wont even need to worry at all about the US and they could easily handle the US without breaking a sweat. This of course is totally false. People should remain humble and be rational/pragmatic like Chinese leaders. If most Chinese people/leaders start having the mentality i see on some people here of underestimating others and thinking they are at the top and better than everyone else , then that will be the day their decline will actually start. I didnt even expect to see such thibking this early when china is still in her development stage . At least become the undisputed number one globally before start making such remarks.

I guess we shouldn't be surprised why they say every superpower/reigning empire last about 250 years more or less on average bedore the rot and decline sets in, which makes sense as thats the time it takes for those who suffered hardships to build the country/system before their grand kids(and subsequent generation) generation who grew up only knowing in abundance take over and the arrogance/complacency starts setting in. Its only human i guess.
IMO, Looks like that the last decade the US economy is propped up more by speculative finance than real economic output. And that is why the last decade, the FED has to intervene so much and so frequently in the markets instead of letting the bubbles like housing bubble and stock bubble to deflate, maybe because the economy may have got addicted to this speculative money, like a chronic alcoholic that cutting alcohol may kill him.

China has a series of speculative bubble, the stock market bubble in the 2015 <wipe out trillions in a week> and housing bubble in 2012-2014. They could have intervene in the stock market and buy billions of non performing assets, they decided that the money is better in other parts of the economy and the country. As these bubble deflated real China economic output has not stopped, in fact accelerated as money moved to the real economy again, a example is a company that was speculating in the real state market, they moved to semiconductors when the US put their export controls, that is less money that government need to put to save their AI-IT sector from US exports embargoes.

To be fair the US is no unique in this phenomena, the entire West is infected with this after the 2008 financial crisis, instead of letting price discovery to do its job, they started massive and never ending stimulus that has lead the everything bubble that has been growing and growing, while the real economy slowing or stagnating.
 

horse

Brigadier
Registered Member
That's ppp not nominal. GDP ppp measures domestic purchasing power while nominal measures International purchasing power. 2 different concepts. China needs to surpass the USA in the nominal GDP to be seen as truly the largest economy.

China probably certainly a bigger economy than the United States in nominal terms if they measured it with the same methodology. Apparently there are big differences in what is counted.

The United States economy is larger than China in nominal terms today because it is overstated due to the different accounting methods.

But, do not tell anyone this.

Best to keep them in the dark.

Remember Liberation Day, and how the Americans raised the tariffs to over 100% because the Chinese retaliated in kind?

Then President Trump expected the Chinese to call. Haha!

Haha! Haha! Haha!

:D
 

Wrought

Captain
Registered Member
US government is soliciting industry comments on tariff reductions, as per recent summit agreements.

WASHINGTON, June 2 (Reuters) - The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative on Tuesday opened a public comment process on the "U.S.-China Board of Trade" agreed by the two countries' leaders last month that could lead to both sides cutting tariffs on some non-strategic goods. USTR said in a statement that it is seeking input on "specific types of non-sensitive products" that could benefit from ⁠tariff modifications on both sides, with comments due July 10. The announcement marks an initial step towards implementing the Board of Trade body that President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed to form at their mid-May summit in Beijing.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
Very wrong to say the US just education debt, interest fees and brick of mud. Seriously sometimes i feel like some people on this forum act like indians towards countries they dont like. Lol. Reminds me of those anti china people whonclaim chinas economy is only low cost forced slave labour, copy cat, cheap goods, building empty ghost cities to add to GDP etc etc. Lol
We shouldn't go to that level. To say US economy is just brick mud and interests fees is just so ridiculous, since if that was the case, China wont even need to worry at all about the US and they could easily handle the US without breaking a sweat. This of course is totally false. People should remain humble and be rational/pragmatic like Chinese leaders. If most Chinese people/leaders start having the mentality i see on some people here of underestimating others and thinking they are at the top and better than everyone else , then that will be the day their decline will actually start. I didnt even expect to see such thibking this early when china is still in her development stage . At least become the undisputed number one globally before start making such remarks.

I guess we shouldn't be surprised why they say every superpower/reigning empire last about 250 years more or less on average bedore the rot and decline sets in, which makes sense as thats the time it takes for those who suffered hardships to build the country/system before their grand kids(and subsequent generation) generation who grew up only knowing in abundance take over and the arrogance/complacency starts setting in. Its only human i guess.
America's economy is a house of cards built on the concept of the USD being the reserve currency, allowing America to basically write IOUs that they never have to pay (but are paid by others who accept USD) in exchange for real goods. America is the finance superpower; its main economic strength is using law to manipulate money, which is artificial and of no intrinsic value. Things of no intrinsic value are the first to fall in times of war, which is the absolute test of a nation's power.

Someone once made a perfect analogy of the US in the global economy. 7 guys are stranded on an island. They decide to divy up the roles to form a society. 1 guy forages, 1 guy fishes, 1 guy farms, 1 guy makes clothes, 1 guy gathers wood, 1 guy makes huts... and the last guy consumes. He eats what their food, wears their clothes and lives in the huts they make. When they get into a discussion about who's most important, he says he is, because if he didn't consume, they'd all be without jobs and purpose.

Yes, I know that some of the world's best technology comes from America. But those are just the fumes left from an era where the engine burned rich with fuel, and also, they are powered mostly by foreigners who were attracted to the US due to the wealth of the USD. America was once an engine of manufacturing, technology and growth, but after WWII, it created the USD-based world economy which allowed it to get lazy and atrophy itself in comfort. Everything that the US has is based on the USD and the USD has no intrinic value.

America is not the country it used to be and the signs of decay are clear. It is demanding all of its subordinates to put the US first to protect its world order from the Chinese bulldozer. It wants S Korea to make its warships; it wants the ROC to transfer its chip technology; it wants to rob allies of their land; it demands all allies to spend 3.5% on their militaries; it is forcing them to invest money in the US. This is America's final shitshow and the American dream has turned into the American nightmare for many. This is the panicked fat and decadent warlord pushing out all his concubines to take up arms to defend him.

America may be a brick of mud and a house of cards, but that doesn't mean that China's job is done. The Wizard of Oz is still almighty to many until he is exposed and any nation with nukes remains a dangerous enemy even if defeated on all fronts. The last piece to toppling the USD is China's military projection powers exceeding that of America's. Once it is done, the US cannot attack countries like Venezuela, Iran, Cuba to force the environment to be US-friendly. It cannot threaten countries that wish to transition away from the USD, not by stick and not by carrot (since China makes everything better for cheaper). With an increasingly hostile environment and the death of the USD as the reserve currency, America will revert to a country that wouldn't dream of challenging China. The only thing that stands in the way of this is the intrinically worthless USD backed by America's final advantage over China, which is military power projection.

You criticize others who have this view as being Indian-like, but you have made a false analogy. Indians are factually incorrect, happy to make up lies to fool themselves and speak down to a country that is above them and rising faster than they are. We who hold this view of the US due to the facts on the ground are simply not afraid to recognize radical change whereas you are slow to accept it because you believe that anything too different from the general consensus is an unsafe prediction to be ridiculed. You like to stick to dogma, and dogma says that the US is the gold standard, so you believe that while the US may falter, it will never be too far from the superpower it once was and claims to still be. Be more flexible in your thinking, don't be scared to realize something more quickly than the crowd; history and discoveries are never made by those who cling to dogma.
 
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