Chinese Economics Thread

henrik

Senior Member
Registered Member
This is honestly a pretty slow growth in nominal gdp. China's nominal gdp growth has been lagging since the property crash. It's time for a stimulus so that deflation can be tackled.

Nominal growth is impacted by:
  1. Deflation
  2. Low nominal growth rates (deflation makes real gdp look better)
  3. Adverse demographics
  4. RMB depreciation
    Seriously, RMB should just appreciate by 20% already! Stocking too many USD is useless, and will in fact soon ignite trade frictions.

China has been dumping US treasuries, unlike what Japan is doing.
 

HighGround

Senior Member
Registered Member

I don't remember this chapter in my Econ textbooks.

Economist Alfred Marshall: "Economies of Scale, but at WHAT COST?"

It's gonna be funny in like ~15 years years or so when China's RMB appreciates vs foreign currencies, at which point China will have both cheap domestic goods and cheap foreign goods. What will the cope be then?
 

bebops

Junior Member
Registered Member
In deflation economy, you can save money while an inflated economy you cannot save money?

Isn't there is a report saying China has 22 trillion in savings while America only has 1.2+ trillion.
 

Wrought

Senior Member
Registered Member
Chinese trade with Gulf nations exceeded the combined West in 2024, and is expected to grow sharply in 2025.

Gulf-China trade hit record levels in 2024, overtaking flows between the region and the West for the first time as oil-rich Middle East nations build deeper ties to one of the largest customers for their oil and gas.

Trade between the Gulf and China reached $257 billion last year, just ahead of the region’s $256 billion trade with the Eurozone, UK, and US combined, according to a
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by think tank Asia House, a gap that’s expected to widen in the years ahead. “Amid deep disruption to global trade, Gulf economies are expanding their relationships with Asia faster than with any other region,” said the report’s author Freddie Neve.

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supercat

Colonel

Just print the money and give as social benefit for couples with children.
Western MSM underestimate China's consumption by reporting retail sales of consumer goods only and ignoring retail sales of service. In the first 10 months, the growth of China's retail sales of consumer goods is 4.3% year-over-year, while retail sales of service rose 5.3% yoy.
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Glenn's tweets about retail sales in the service sector:
 

Jiang ZeminFanboy

Senior Member
Registered Member
Chinese statisticians also trolled because they still don't provide yoy statistics for service retail sales alongside goods retail sales for particular month. Only ytd. If even Chinese statistics don't provide full picture why would shameless western media even try?

As you said ytd we have 4.3% growth for consumption, but the problem is that in recent months yoy growth deteriorated and disposable income is also not growing very fast, similar to consumption growth at 5.1%.

There is ample room for printing money for giving it for couples with children when we are at deflation territory. We are 2 years in these lackluster performance already with miniscule fiscal boosts like vouchers. Every month of inaction is wasted potential for higher growth. Big fiscal boost for couples with children should have been done in 2024 we are coming to 2026 and still no sight for big bomba of cash for parents only small provincial programs.
 
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