oh look, the people that left Hong Kong realized that economy in China is much better than wherever they went to and are coming back. Food in UK really is terrible. Maybe QoL in HK and pearl river delta isn't so bad after all.
Chinese Economics Thread
- Thread starter Norfolk
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oh look, the people that left Hong Kong realized that economy in China is much better than wherever they went to and are coming back. Food in UK really is terrible. Maybe QoL in HK and pearl river delta isn't so bad after all.
Won’t happen. I don’t think Chinese leaders are stupid not to do that. So we should tell ourselves that there is a good reason they are not doing that. I don’t think it will be beneficial for China to do so compared to the current status quo, else the CCP would have done that already
Is this desirable? I thought Hong Kongers were getting better now, won't this risk causing a relapse?
Real estate? Really? Population in China is declining and there are so much supply that has not been filled. House prices except Shanghai and Beijing should only decline from now on, for a very long time.
proelite
Junior Member
Is the average family owning three homes? A primary home, a secondary home, and a vacation home. If not, real estate isn't fully tapped out.
For a family in China to own 3 homes, house prices should decline even more. And typical family in the world don't own three homes.
China has 300 million migrant workers who do not own a home in the city they actually live. There are is still 35% of population who live in rural areas who will eventually have to move to cities as well. The Chinese citizens who actually have an urban apartment or home, I would say the vast majority have much smaller apartments and most of them would want an upgrade as well.
So overall, there is a huge potential in China that there will be millions of apartments sold, but also millions of apartments that needs to be torn down and redeveloped. There are still plenty of "Urban villages" in Chinese cities. These urban villages actually constitute a vast number of the chinese population living in Cities. These population will need to be moved to much higher quality housing and those urban slums need to be torn down and gentrified.
So, overall there is still huge construction boom that is still required. I expect China's real estate boom to continue for the next 1 century. People will slowly get richer and move to bigger and better homes. Older houses will be torn down to make bigger houses. A lot of development and redevelopment still pending.
China is not even remotely done with its real estate industry. China probably done with Roaring 20s of US and having the subsequent depression. But there is still 100 years more of real estate development coming.
Why not spread out the highly dense population onto suburbia? Pros: larger living space, more demand for construction materials and real state development, increased personal spending. Cons: Inefficient service delivery and less land for agriculture. But I would say why not target inland provinces as specialized regions where anyone could own land privately and build detached single family residences.
So you already knew the problems of "spreading out". In particular, less land for agriculture is a red line. Most importantly, private land ownership is a big no no to the public.
What needs to happen is that the global discourse needs to move away from using USD as the primary way to measure GDP and switch to RMB instead. Similar for Russia, to Rubles, and for India, to Rupees.