Chinese Economics Thread

[HighGround]

However, it remains extremely difficult for young people in China to afford a home in cities solely through their salaries. Young adults from ordinary families often require substantial financial support from their parents to start a household. My former boss once lamented this very issue: "In China today, it's the middle-aged and elderly who hold the wealth, while young people have barely a penny to their name!" I hope that China's high-quality growth over the next five to ten years will create more decent, high-paying jobs for the younger generation.

This is the case in most developed societies. Accumulation of wealth simply takes time.

 

[zbb]

My former boss once lamented this very issue: "In China today, it's the middle-aged and elderly who hold the wealth, while young people have barely a penny to their name!"

Isn't that normal and expected? People who have worked and saved for ~30 years should have a lot more wealth than 20 somethings who just entered the work force.

 

[supersnoop]

Landfills are dangerous to maintain anyway due to pent up flammable gases from decomposing garbage. It’s for the best that they are digging up old trash.

Evil CCP made Wall-E unemployed…

 

[FriedRiceNSpice]

However, it remains extremely difficult for young people in China to afford a home in cities solely through their salaries. Young adults from ordinary families often require substantial financial support from their parents to start a household. My former boss once lamented this very issue: "In China today, it's the middle-aged and elderly who hold the wealth, while young people have barely a penny to their name!" I hope that China's high-quality growth over the next five to ten years will create more decent, high-paying jobs for the younger generation.

You can't have both wealth creation from real estate prices going up and housing affordability.

Also, China's youth unemployment problem is greatly exaggeratedly, considering China also has one of the word's highest home ownership of more than 90%, as well as the huge household savings.

China's youth have it much better than the current graduating classes of college students in the US. Median first time homebuyer age in US has reached 40. Entry level jobs are non existent. Tech jobs are almost impossible to get, and those lucky enough to get one have to face zero job stability and 996.

 

[sunnymaxi]

This is a monumental shift.

Germany is now running a trade deficit in capital goods with China over a rolling 12-month period for the first time.

Chinese machinery exports to Europe roughly doubled to around €40bn in over six years and may reach €50bn this year.”

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1988570810726883584

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[jli88]

According to China's premier, China's nominal GDP will exceed 170 trillion yuan in 5 years. If RMB does not appreciate significantly during this 5 years, it will be more than $23 trillion by 2030.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1985898033570316751

This is honestly a pretty slow growth in nominal gdp. China's nominal gdp growth has been lagging since the property crash. It's time for a stimulus so that deflation can be tackled.

Nominal growth is impacted by:

1. Deflation
2. Low nominal growth rates (deflation makes real gdp look better)
3. Adverse demographics
4. RMB depreciation
   Seriously, RMB should just appreciate by 20% already! Stocking too many USD is useless, and will in fact soon ignite trade frictions.

 

[Jiang ZeminFanboy]

This is honestly a pretty slow growth in nominal gdp. China's nominal gdp growth has been lagging since the property crash. It's time for a stimulus so that deflation can be tackled.

Nominal growth is impacted by:

1. Deflation
2. Low nominal growth rates (deflation makes real gdp look better)
3. Adverse demographics
4. RMB depreciation
   Seriously, RMB should just appreciate by 20% already! Stocking too many USD is useless, and will in fact soon ignite trade frictions.

IMO nominal growth will pick up more when housing prices stabilise, and real estate investment grow again. It should be soon, real estate is really low now, even below the long term replacement level.

 

[SanWenYu]

This is a monumental shift.

Germany is now running a trade deficit in capital goods with China over a rolling 12-month period for the first time.

Chinese machinery exports to Europe roughly doubled to around €40bn in over six years and may reach €50bn this year.”

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1988570810726883584

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Friedrich Merz should dig deep in the backyard of his official residence for the oil paper bags. In the bags he can find the advices from his predecessors. There might even been Swiss bank account numbers and pass codes.

 

[supercat]

The productivity of China's workers in the manufacturing sector is arguably twice greater than America's, measured by physical output.

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I just found out that the report is based on a piece by Weijian Shan. The paper is critical for understanding China's advantage in manufacturing.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1988607558261608762

Unraveling China’s Productivity Paradox

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This is honestly a pretty slow growth in nominal gdp. China's nominal gdp growth has been lagging since the property crash. It's time for a stimulus so that deflation can be tackled.

Nominal growth is impacted by:

1. Deflation
2. Low nominal growth rates (deflation makes real gdp look better)
3. Adverse demographics
4. RMB depreciation
   Seriously, RMB should just appreciate by 20% already! Stocking too many USD is useless, and will in fact soon ignite trade frictions.

China should get rid of its US Treasuries and buy as much gold as possible, and eventually paying it with RMB/CNY.

 

[jli88]

China should get rid of its US Treasuries and buy as much gold as possible, and eventually paying it with RMB/CNY.

Gold isn't a big enough asset class to diversify into. And gold is inconvenient as a medium of exchange.

They should appreciate RMB by 20% right now!