Chinese Economics Thread

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now I read
China's smartphone shipments slip in 2018
Xinhua| 2019-01-08 14:11:54
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My first thought reading this was that if Apple falling then the average phone price falling more , and the sales volume in USD should be more.

However the statista showing something different :

global-smartphone-shipments-china.jpg

global-smartphone-sales-value-china.jpg

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On the webpage Q1 of 2018 visible.
There is nor further data, but it is enough to guess the retail income drop.

Now, divide the 2018 q1 sales price with 18q1 unit shipment, divide the 2017 sales price with 17 shipment, and the received average price increase is around 12% .

Means the phone sales in CNY decreased by 5% , roughly matching the drop in car sales (without corrected for average price ).
The drop is less severe than looks like first, but still drop.

Of course it can be different up and down, but I think it can not be more than +/- 2%
 
now I read
China plans deeper tax cuts in manufacturing sector: official
Xinhua| 2019-01-10 19:45:37
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A senior Chinese official said Thursday that the country will further cut taxes and fees in the manufacturing sector this year to promote its high-quality development.

The country will continue to lower the rates of value-added tax levied on the manufacturing sector and reduce its costs on production factors such as electricity and water, Minister of Industry and Information Technology Miao Wei told Xinhua in an interview.

Miao said the country will move to optimize the sector's development environment and continue to ease market access.

He said the country will further open up the manufacturing sector, roll out the system of pre-establishment national treatment plus a negative list nationwide and ensure implementation of opening-up policies concerning sectors such as automobiles, shipbuilding and aviation.

A statement issued after the Central Economic Work Conference, which mapped out policy priorities for 2019, said high-quality manufacturing development was prioritized on the work agenda and stressed unwavering efforts to build the country into a manufacturer of quality and the integration of advanced manufacturing and modern service sector.

With a massive domestic market, integrated industry system, capacity of innovation, well-developed infrastructure and favorable business environment, China has strong resilience to cope with challenges, Miao said.
 
now I read
Larger tax cut in pipeline, says China's finance minister
Xinhua| 2019-01-11 23:42:48
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China is mulling tax reductions on a larger scale this year to bring down the burden on the real economy and improve market confidence, Minister of Finance Liu Kun has said.

Liu said in an interview on Thursday that the tax cut in the pipeline would be inclusive, simple and practical, and be implemented at an early date.

His remarks came on the heels of a new batch of tax breaks for small and micro firms, which comprised of lower tax rates, higher tax thresholds and favorable policies for investors of tech startups.

"Some 17.98 million businesses in China are covered by the inclusive tax reduction, accounting for more than 95 percent of the total corporate taxpayers and with 98 percent of them privately owned," Liu said.

China will also step up efforts to push forward value-added tax reform for substantive tax cuts, implement special individual income tax deductions, and ease the business burden from social insurance payments, Liu said.

With intensive tax breaks, China is estimated to save a total of 1.3 trillion yuan (nearly 200 billion U.S. dollars) for market entities in 2018, outshining similar moves by any other countries in terms of scale and ratio to GDP.

While persisting in tax cuts, China will take bolder and more effective measures to implement proactive fiscal policy, Liu said.

"The fiscal expenditure will be improved moderately according to the economic situation and demand, and there will be a relatively substantial increase in the issuance of special-purpose local government bonds to support projects under construction and fix shortcomings," Liu said.

China will make fiscal funds more effective and channel more capital into weak areas including poverty relief, agriculture, innovation and environmental protection, Liu said, adding that the general government spending would be cut by more than 5 percent.

Liu denied concerns about massive stimulus and stressed that the measures were counter-cyclical, aimed to strike a balance between stable growth and risk prevention, and would be more market-oriented and law-based.

China has assigned 1.39 trillion yuan worth of bonds to local governments, which Liu said would be used to finance the development of poor areas and major projects of railways, water conservation and rural revitalization.
 
now noticed the tweet
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China will gradually remove all subsidies for new energy vehicles (NEV) by 2021, without causing major impact on the NEV industry, Miao Wei, Minister of Industry and Information Technology, said on Sun. The nation has invested over 2 trillion yuan to support the industry in 2018.

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now I read
Economists upbeat about China's economy
Xinhua| 2019-01-13 22:20:21
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China's economy is expected to remain steady in 2019 as the country rolled out a raft of fiscal and monetary policies to support the economy, economists and experts have said.

"It takes time for policies to make actual effects on China's economy after implementation," Sheng Songcheng from the People's Bank of China (PBOC) was quoted by Securities Daily as saying.

Sheng forecast that the country's economy will stabilize after the first quarter of 2019 and is likely to warm up in the second half of the year.

China's gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 6.7 percent year on year in the first three quarters of 2018, above the government's annual growth target of around 6.5 percent.

Sheng also said the growth of the M2, a broad measure of money supply, is expected to rebound in 2019 with the upgrade of investment structure, the acceleration of industrial transformation and upgrading, and the growth of services consumption.

PBOC data showed that M2 rose 8 percent year on year to 181.32 trillion yuan at the end of November 2018.

The M2 growth was flat with that registered in October 2018 and 1.1 percentage points lower than that of the same period a year earlier.

Zhu Baoliang, an economist with the State Information Center, said the structure, quality, and efficiency of China's economy have made some progress and the financial risks have also been partly released.

To maintain stable economic growth, China may take measures such as further reducing taxes and fees, and expanding fiscal budget deficit, among others, some experts said.
 
now noticed the tweet
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China is predicted to see a shortage of 22 million high-end technical personnel by 2020, as the country is witnessing a growing gap in its employment structure due to the surge in development of smart manufacturing, according to CCTV Business Channel.

Dw7YO3hUYAAJj3E.jpg
 
now I read
China able to keep economic growth within reasonable range: Premier Li
Xinhua| 2019-01-17 21:47:43
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Premier Li Keqiang said Thursday that China will be able to keep economic growth within a reasonable range, despite greater difficulties this year, by innovating and improving macro-control.

Li, a member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee, made the remarks when presiding over a symposium for soliciting views and suggestions on a draft version of the government work report.

The symposium was attended by leaders of non-communist parties, the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce and representatives of personages without party affiliation.

Han Zheng, a member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and vice premier, attended the symposium.

China has already learned how to keep economic growth within a reasonable range without adopting strong stimulus policies that would have an economy-wide impact, Li said.

With innovations and improvement in macro-control, the country will be able to attain a relatively high level of employment, sustained growth in income and improvement in the natural environment, he said.

China will focus more on stimulating vitality of market entities by deepening reform and opening-up, improving the business environment and helping enterprises, especially small ones, reduce their burdens substantially, Li said.

The country will also accelerate the buildup of new drivers of growth and upgrade traditional growth engines by offering greater support to business startups and innovation, he said.
 
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