Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
Here some more from MIT Review
Chinese Economics Thread
- Thread starter Norfolk
- Start date
With China, US and EU going the way of robot and automation, all I can say is... India is doomed. Their demographic advantage will became a liability. Get ready for massive unemployment and unrest.
China was probably the last major country to cash in on the traditional form of labor intensive manufacturing, and now they are closing the door behind them.
China was probably the last major country to cash in on the traditional form of labor intensive manufacturing, and now they are closing the door behind them.
antiterror13
Brigadier
I've just bought Asus EX-GTX1050TI-4G on special for just NZ$209 .. it's great video card and amazingly good price for such good performance ... totally silent until reach ~55°C. Big improvement from my old GTX550 TI
The reason I mention it ... it is the first Video Card that 100% manufactured by robot, 100 percent-automated production process ... no human intervention ... perhaps why the price is so competitive
Automation should allow them to be productive enough with those who do work to provide subsistence to those who don't and avoid unrest. It'll be difficult to advance further than that, however.
As for China, its economy should be able to chug along at 5-6 percent rate for at least another 10-15 years. The current round of tightening money market IMO will be gradual but sustained. China will be looking to address the debt issue over the course of at least a decade, and not some sort of shock therapy.
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That is correct, the way I see it, universal basic income will be the key for the next economic model.
In the near future there will be more jobs than people, and if this continues the whole system will collapse. The current systems work like this, people work for jobs, gets income, and use income to buy stuff, when there is demand for stuff, business will produce them by using people... and pay them salary, which will be used to produce stuff.... the cycle continues and this cycle is about to be broken, because Business while produce stuff will always willing to seek reduce cost, one of biggest cost is cost of labor, but labor is increasing being replaced by automation robots and advanced AI.. But in the long term this ironically will also break businesses, because no income means no demand for their stuff.
The only solution is that government heavily tax business with heavy automation, and distribute those tax back to the people as a tax rebate or what I call Universal basic income, and people can use those money to keep buying stuff from businesses, and then of course, government collect profits from business to distribute back to the people again....
Unfortunately this is not what is happening in US, because US democratic system is all controlled by business who is only lobbying government to cut taxes. This is the reason why this current economic recovery from 2009 to today has benefited the top rich so much and yet the bottom level stay depressed still to this day.
However this model that I described above if it works can only be working for nations that has advanced automation technology, for nations that don't have it, they are stuck in both side of hell, its people face massive unemployment because they cannot compete with advance nation's robot manufacturing, and its government is too poor to intervene to help the massive poor.
vesicles
Colonel
I don't think this is how it's supposed to be done. Striving to reduce cost is an integral part of business. Advancement in technology to reduce cost has been going on since the start of civilization. From inventions of machines, mass production lines to automation. Each and every step has been to try to replace human labor to lower cost. These steps also liberate people from tedious and harsh manual labor. This is not only normal but essential part of a nation's economic development. You can't punish normal and healthy progress.
Similar things have happened in the past. During industrial revolution, people were replaced with machines. People were not happy about it. They even burned down factories and destroyed machines in an attempt to get their jobs back. Factories kept adding more machines and our population kept increasing. Yet, we are not seeing 80%-90% unemployment, which was predicted back then.
Vast majority of people are still employed even as we increase the extent of automation. Why? We keep changing the nature of jobs. More high tech and more service sectors. Better education allows people to get more advanced jobs, while automation takes care of the low end labor. This is natural progression.
As we advance even more, we will be liberated from even more low end jobs. What is seen as normal everyday job today might be seen as something tedious and torturing by tomorrow's standard. Think of what our ancestors had to endure in the field and how we do thing today. With more time on our hands and armed with more education, we will move on to bigger and better things that we can't even imagine today.
All in all, automation is the step in the natural progression of our technological and economic development. we cannot punish natural progression of our civilization. We can however change ourselves to better fit in with the advancement.
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What you have described is very true for the past and its the very traditional way of thinking and yes it has worked throughout history so far. But what I'm saying is this time it will be different. The combination of advanced AI and automation will be a game changer that is absolutely unprecedented for us all.
In the past when on job became obsolete, human will create new industry and provide more jobs simply because human intelligence is absolutely supreme compare to any effort at automation, the more automation you need the more people you need to operate it. But this is all going to the changed very soon because soon the machine will be able to learn and adopt just as effectively as humans in many areas. And yes in the process new jobs and new industry will be created as before, but those job's will not be like the new jobs created before, they will not just going to increase production, but at same time, many of those job's goal is to make other jobs automated.
At the same time, the skill required for those higher level jobs will require a lot of higher education and schooling, and as usual, in any society there will be a lot of people that does not seek higher education, and with the lack of skills that they have they will be increasing became obsolete, but at the same time on the other side of the spectrum, the higher level jobs will get paid even more.
I believe this is already happening, just ask yourself, minimal wage job or jobs that requires minimum skill in 30 years ago vs today, how much it has changed? And look at the other end of silicon valley, engineers are making 100k a year easily and still cannot afford apartments in San Francisco.
And lastly, right now the only decent paying jobs that requires very little education in US is actually truck drivers.... but with the heavy investment in self driving, what is going to happen to those drivers?
This is already happening, and it will only get worse.
Equation
Lieutenant General
Yes but AI and computers requires vast amount of rare earth materials to produce them. Meaning somebody has to do the digging, mining, and processing. Yes robots can do that too, but again somebody has to find and process those minerals in order to produce automation equipment and machines. Until AI can prove to be 100% self sufficient there will always be a need for basic and cheaper human labor to support it.
Blackstone
Brigadier
More and more economists say automation will increasingly display low skilled labor, so it's likely there wouldn't be another China. So, it's automation closing the door on nations like India and not China.
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
That is what he said Interesting today Chinese ambassador said the same thing Being polite he says India is behind 13 years but in reality it is more than that . India need to bring their house in order by instituting country wide reform. I wish them well
Meanwhile the Indian booster ever optimistic said this