Chinese Economics Thread

Blitzo

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This article reminds me of crazy people arguing with themselves.

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Did China brag about how wonderful China is to have working drones deliveries beating Amazon for this author to then point to how horrible China is in general? Envious much?

I think that some people, the very notion of China being successful in some forms presents a significant degree of cognitive dissonance and a threat to their perception of how the world should work, so in their eyes to "mitigate" that threat it is only natural to try and present a "balanced" view of what their perception of "reality" actually "is".

This isn't particularly new, and if anything it will likely increase in intensity in the foreseeable future as progress must inevitably be "balanced" with "negatives" to present an "unbiased" opinion.
 

Equation

Lieutenant General
US Makers and 3D printers are massively inferior to China’s manufacturing hubs
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| April 27, 2017 |
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It is 100 times faster than laser metal sintering machines.

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To illustrate what makes Shenzhen so unique, he shared a story at the 2013 Shanghai Maker Carnival: “I’m in my apartment, in Huaqiangbei, and I get a call early in the morning. My factory is short of transistors. So I get up, walk downstairs, buy 3,000 transistors on the street, walk over to the factory, thread it into the reel on the line, and two hours later, the line’s up and running again.” In another city or situation, he says, your factory would be down for maybe 24 hours. Those 24-hour delays begin to mount and seriously slow delivery of your product.


Matt Mets, former MakerBot engineer and Make: blogger who now lives in Shenzhen and runs Blinkinlabs, offers a colorful analogy that also speaks to Shenzhen’s unique ecosystem: “All of the things we’re building are super-small compared to what the giant companies are making, so we’re sort of clinging to the fur of a much larger animal that is big manufacturing, and that animal lives in southern China.

Shenzhen is where new smartphone can be rapidly designed and changed and then manufactured by the millions.

Yes, manufacturing has a lot of robotics for full production but China is filled with people who worked factory lines and can rapidly lay down perfect commercial grade solders.

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A factory or design team can a product like a hoverboard, figure out how it’s made, and start churning out near-identical products or improved versions.

3D printers and maker tools and Tech shop equipment are not full commercial factory grade. They do not have a supply chain that can scale and adapt to supply raw materials or components.

China’s factories have computer controlled machines and robotic assembly lines.

There is also a critical level of unrecorded manufacturing knowledge that permeates everything in China’s manufacturing hubs. A lot of professionals and leaders who are manufacturing and designing and building businesses and products every day.

Just having some good 3D printers and metal printers will not be enough. It is like thinking some highly flexible scripting and automatic coding could replace the software companies of silicon valley.

Replacing or seriously displacing a manufacturing hub will take scale and decades of commitment and a long road and a lot of innovation to catchup and get competitive.
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While what the article says is true regarding such an industrial base there is also a "chicken and egg", and a "can't live with it, can't live without it", relationship in the larger environment between this production pool and the lack of intellectual property protection that is a very gray trade off.

At the same time I find the environment in the US to be extremely misguided from another angle, when patent regulations were changed some years ago to favor first-to-file instead of first-to-invent as it was before. This favors more money i.e. large corporations, and lawyers lawyers lawyers, over individuals to the extent that it is a virtual death knell for individual inventors. This basically ended tinkering as a meaningful hobby for me.
 

solarz

Brigadier
At the same time I find the environment in the US to be extremely misguided from another angle, when patent regulations were changed some years ago to favor first-to-file instead of first-to-invent as it was before. This favors more money i.e. large corporations, and lawyers lawyers lawyers, over individuals to the extent that it is a virtual death knell for individual inventors. This basically ended tinkering as a meaningful hobby for me.

Funnily enough, the same thing happens in China with regards to software apps, except it happens because of a lack of IP protection. Chinese start-ups no longer tries any kind of innovation because anything they create, the big guys like Baidu and Tencent can replicate in days, if not hours.

It just goes to show that in the information age, we need a new kind of system for encouraging innovation. IMO, open-source collaboration is the way forward. Instead of people benefiting from owning an IP, they would benefit by being respected and influential in a collaborative project.
 
Funnily enough, the same thing happens in China with regards to software apps, except it happens because of a lack of IP protection. Chinese start-ups no longer tries any kind of innovation because anything they create, the big guys like Baidu and Tencent can replicate in days, if not hours.

It just goes to show that in the information age, we need a new kind of system for encouraging innovation. IMO, open-source collaboration is the way forward. Instead of people benefiting from owning an IP, they would benefit by being respected and influential in a collaborative project.

Individuals or small companies should still be able to profit from their innovations though. While respect and influence are great they don't pay the bills.
 
Funnily enough, the same thing happens in China with regards to software apps, except it happens because of a lack of IP protection. Chinese start-ups no longer tries any kind of innovation because anything they create, the big guys like Baidu and Tencent can replicate in days, if not hours.

It just goes to show that in the information age, we need a new kind of system for encouraging innovation. IMO, open-source collaboration is the way forward. Instead of people benefiting from owning an IP, they would benefit by being respected and influential in a collaborative project.

In terms of software features being copied that's also true in the US such as with the Facebook, Instagram, Snapchat back and forth. Even Android, iOS, Windows features. Or some of the iPhone vs Samsung smartphone patents. It's a blurry line of not reinventing the wheel, form follows function versus intellectual property.
 

solarz

Brigadier
Individuals or small companies should still be able to profit from their innovations though. While respect and influence are great they don't pay the bills.

Most software these days do not make money directly. Instead, they are launching pads for other sources of revenue.

For example, Microsoft makes a lot of money on training courses and certification for its SQL Server, far more than what they would make from licensing alone.

So if you are an influential figure in a popular application, and assuming that this is an enterprise application that requires training to use properly, a lot of people would sign up for your training courses.

Or you could leverage the application to promote your other business. Or if the software really takes off, your company could find itself in the position of dictating new standards in the industry. There are lots of ways to translate influence and prestige into revenue.
 

delft

Brigadier
From Asia Times:
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Petrodollar faces growing threat from the East
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April 27, 2017 2:51 AM (UTC+8)


While the recent raft of Sino-Saudi trade agreements benefited Chinese soft power in protecting Xinjiang, and the Saudis by diversifying their economy, China’s slow intertwining with Saudi Arabia complements the Sino-Russo alliance. Primarily, its benefits could lead to a realistic threat to the petrodollar.

The Persian rival who showed ‘the way’
In 2012/2013, the US Treasury Department, under the Obama administration, initiated a raft of sanctions in an amateurish fashion against the Central Bank of Iran. As we were told, it was done to tire and bleed Iranian economic and social life enough to draw Tehran into negotiations concerning its nuclear programme. The argument of were they/weren’t they pursuing a weaponized nuclear program isn’t important; how the Iranians circumvented these sanctions is.

The sanctions were meant to be stifling, but the Iranians loosened this problematic liquidity noose by using all their banks that weren’t sanctioned, and sold rich Iranian oil to India. Of course, the Indians couldn’t pay Tehran directly. Neither could they pay bilaterally in rupees due to sanctions and infrastructure needed to trade in a bilateral currency. Instead, Iran requested that India pay in gold so India paid Turkey, the Middle East’s gold market, and Turkey gave Turkish gold to Iranian banks, which then swapped with the Central Bank of Iran.

Turkey, for its part, may soon be the gold payment intermediator across Asia, and is already nationalizing the sector with a demand for private confiscation occurring to support the Turkish economy, but this has scarcely been reported.

This clever evasion was known as the Iran-India-Turkey triangle. Iran was escaping the dominance of the US dollar and trading in real money, not a hegemonic fiat currency that was being printed hot-off-the-press all day. They were dealing in gold; not something that could be strangled through SWIFT and electrons traded on a screen easily. A simple intermediator and precious metals could break Obama’s heralded “crippling” sanctions.

Iran ideologically, as well as practically, wants nothing to do with the US dollar but rather it wants to be free of monetary pressures by the US on its domestic policies. The effectiveness of this evasion was a preview to what countries like China, Russia, and to a lesser extent India and South Korea, have all been trying to do: increase their independence from the US dollar. The Iranian gold triangle showed successful independence from US dollar reliance.

The Chinese usurpers and their yellow metal
Fast forward to March 2017; the Russian Central Bank opened its first overseas office in Beijing as an early step in phasing in a gold-backed standard of trade. This would be done by finalizing the issuance of the first federal loan bonds denominated in Chinese yuan and to allow gold imports from Russia.

The Chinese government wishes to internationalize the yuan, and conduct trade in yuan as it has been doing, and is beginning to increase trade with Russia. They’ve been taking these steps with bilateral trading, native trading systems and so on. However, when Russia and China agreed on their bilateral US$400 billion pipeline deal, China wished to, and did, pay for the pipeline with yuan treasury bonds, and then later for Russian oil in yuan.

This evasion of, and unprecedented breakaway from, the reign of the US dollar monetary system is taking many forms, but one of the most threatening is the Russians trading Chinese yuan for gold. The Russians are already taking Chinese yuan, made from the sales of their oil to China, back to the Shanghai Gold Exchange to then buy gold with yuan-denominated gold futures contracts – basically a barter system or trade.

The Chinese are hoping that by starting to assimilate the yuan futures contract for oil, facilitating the payment of oil in yuan, the hedging of which will be done in Shanghai, it will allow the yuan to be perceived as a primary currency for trading oil. The world’s top importer (China) and exporter (Russia) are taking steps to convert payments into gold. This is known. So, who would be the greatest asset to lure into trading oil for yuan? The Saudis, of course.

All the Chinese need is for the Saudis to sell China oil in exchange for yuan. If the House of Saud decides to pursue that exchange, the Gulf petro-monarchies will follow suit, and then Nigeria, and so on. This will fundamentally threaten the petrodollar.

Now the argument is that if China does this it will put a slam on Chinese exports, but China is undergoing an intentional metamorphosis from a producer and exporter to a service and consumer economy of internal products. Look to China’s technology sector, e-commerce sector, and other domestic sectors that will provide a large market for sustainable service and growth.

A second argument against this train of thought is that maybe China doesn’t want the yuan to be a world reserve currency but just have a strong currency; a gold-backed yuan currency. Having a gold trade note may not hurt Chinese exports as it transforms its economy and its future exports.

Beijing may also have thought that if Saudi Arabia is persuaded to trade in yuan or gold-backed yuan, etc, South Korea and Japan may follow suit, as both have been looking to detach from the US dollar.

China and Iran were the first to initiate bypassing the dollar, followed by Russia circumventing the SWIFT system and then India beginning to move away from the US dollar and starting bilateral trade deals. China and Japan made moves to trade directly, as did Japan with India, bypassing the dollar.

The use of alternative payment systems like gold, yuan, rupees, rubles and other monies, fiat and not, to evade the potential of sanctions and seizures of the US dollar, or its decline, are seen as favorable.

What decline?

Well, we can look at the historic East-West cycle, the baby-boom demographic in the West, the growing inequality in the wealth distribution cycle, the ratio of household debt as a percentage of disposable income, and for you history buffs, the Kondratiev wave are all peaking and are descending into a deflationary wave.

Wait, what?

Okay, all of those mentioned cycles are economic swings of wealth. Everything is pointing towards a declining West and a rising East. But we can equally blame central bankers’ quantitative easing policies of printing to prosperity. The idea is a falsity that also has only benefited the wealthier classes, and can’t beat back cyclical pressure. A shift in world monetary systems is occurring.

The Chinese economy has begun an economic restructuring and focus on domestic production and services. The Trump administration thinks weakening the US dollar will help American exports and likewise respectfully grow the US economy (or “grow” within the confines of the current monetary system). However, the overvalued dollar has subsidized the cherished “American standard of living,” and any weakening will now have detrimental effects.

The US needs to also restructure its economy to one that is based on production. It can no longer continue to run a debt-serviced economy that imports all goods it doesn’t produce. It’s unsustainable, and the continuous mistake of many. The wealth of the world is shifting eastwards.

The petrodollar is the last vestige of that “American standard of living” middle America cherishes, and if the gold trade bonds fly and yuan changes hands as the oil flows, the US is going to get a shock when Saudi Arabia likes the look of red paper as much as green, or worse yet, yellow metal, a lot of which is moving east.
If Saudi Arabia is really considering abandoning the petrodollar system it is no wonder that US supports Saudi war against Yemen with so few complaints.
Also notice what he says about South Korea and Japan.
 
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mr.bean

Junior Member
From Asia Times:
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If Saudi Arabia is really considering abandoning the petrodollar system it is no wonder that US supports Saudi war against Yemen with so few complaints.
Also notice what he says about South Korea and Japan.

nice article and good read. if Saudi Arabia does what he suggests in this article then that's the day they get ''regime changed''.
 
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