Chinese Economics Thread

crobato

Colonel
VIP Professional
A landmark has passed. China's market value now exceeds Japan.

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July 16 (Bloomberg) -- China overtook Japan as the world’s second-largest stock market by value for the first time in 1 1/2 years, after government stimulus spending and record bank lending boosted share prices this year.

The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.4 percent to 3,188.55 yesterday, sending the value of China’s domestic stock market to $3.21 trillion, compared with Japan’s $3.20 trillion. The Shanghai index has gained 75 percent this year, the best- performing major market, against a 7 percent advance in the Nikkei 225 Stock Average. The U.S. remains the world’s biggest stock market with a capitalization of $10.8 trillion.

“China is just entering its stride and is still very much in a growth phase, while Japan is already a developed economy,” said Daphne Roth, Singapore-based head of Asian equity research at ABN Amro Private Banking, which oversees about $14 billion.

China last surpassed Japan in stock-market capitalization from Jan. 4 to Jan. 24, 2008, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The Shanghai Composite tripled in the two years leading to its record on Oct. 16, 2007, before tumbling 72 percent to its trough the following November. ...
 

tonyget

Senior Member
Registered Member
Australia warns China on spy case

Australia warns China on spy case

Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has warned that China has big economic interests at stake in the case of a mining executive accused of spying.

He said the matter was being watched closely from abroad.

Mr Rudd has been under pressure at home to be more assertive with China, to better protect the detained Australian citizen, Stern Hu.

China says it has evidence of spying, bribery and theft of state secrets in a widening probe of the steel industry.

"Australia of course has significant economic interests in its relationship with China, but I also want to remind our Chinese friends that China too has significant economic interests at stake in its relationship with Australia and with its other commercial partners around the world," Mr Rudd told a press conference.

The Shanghai-based staff of the Anglo-American mining firm Rio Tinto, including Australian Stern Hu, Rio's top iron ore salesman there, are accused of stealing state secrets from Chinese steel mills.

China has widened its investigation into the industry's workings by investigating executives at Chinese state-owned steel firms in recent days.

Investigation



Rio Tinto said markets remained tough
Also on Wednesday, Rio Tinto reported second-quarter results, indicating that markets were remaining tough with demand slowing.

Production of bauxite, alumina and aluminium were all reduced, but on the upside iron ore production rose for the three month period by 8% from a year earlier.

Rio Tinto has not yet finalised price settlements for iron ore sales to certain customers, including steel mills in China. But deals with Japan, Korea and Taiwan have been reached.

"Deliveries continue to other customers on a provisional price or spot sales basis," said Rio Tinto chief executive Tom Albanese.

Reports suggest the spying case is complicating talks between China and iron ore suppliers around the world.

Cutting debt

In June, Rio Tinto abandoned a $19.5bn deal with China's state-owned Chinalco in favour of a tie-up with rival giant BHP Billiton, to the anger of some in Beijing.

The firm has been seeking to reduce the $38bn of debt it took on to buy the Canadian aluminium group Alcan in 2007.

In its second-quarter results, Rio said it had continued to press ahead with steps to cut costs and bring down levels of net debt.

After it pulled out of its deal with Chinalco, Rio sought other ways to raise cash. Recently it completed a £15.2bn rights issue and the firm is to offload investments worth £3.7bn.
 

bladerunner

Banned Idiot
A landmark has passed. China's market value now exceeds Japan.

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Is this due to the dreaded equities bubble as a result of a misdirection of the stimulus money?

But lets not forget that Chinas own leaders have expressed concern at some worrying
trends, and goals that have yet to materialise.. They have supposedly brought forward a Politburo meeting to discuss the economy, which indicates that they could be worried about some underlying aspects. of the economy.

So lets see if some of the Western commentaters belief that the final quarter or, mid next year will tell a different picture rings true... Their doom and gloom is based on the easy credit, to date more than 400billion dollars than all of last year.,

But rather than using this money to enhance production and employment, it has been spent on speculative spending involving commodities, real estate, and the stock markets, which left unchecked , can lead to destructive bubbles..

think we have seen this in America prior to the financial crash.. As well as that declining exports of up to 30% have not been entirely replaced by internal consumption.. The consumer items also indicate another worrying trend, the dreaded deflation.

And what will happen if China decides that this pump priming cannot continue, and instigates break in lending ? This could result in another deflation of these asset bubbles.
 

crobato

Colonel
VIP Professional
No its all about stock market value. The valuation of China's stock market now exceeds Japan's.

Actually, most analysis I've seen are quite optimistic about China's GDP group and stimulus spending, although a sharp eye needs to be cast on some of the loans. But then again, no risk no gain.

The next article I present shows a change in Chinese business attitudes. Now they're starting to sue each other for copyright valuations. Hope this will lead to a more innovative and business differentiated China.

Enjoy your cheap Chinese knockoffs while you can, and if trends like this persist, that would be a thing of the past.

Chinese Company Sues in U.S. to Block ‘Knockoff’ (Update1)

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"By Susan Decker

July 17 (Bloomberg) -- Best Buy Co., Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and other companies were sued over dashboard mounts for navigation devices in a rare case of a Chinese company seeking to enforce patent rights in a U.S. court.

Changzhou Asian Endergonic Electronic Technology Co., based in Changzhou, China, claims the retailers are infringing its patent on a design for the dashboard mounts by selling products made by a competitor. It wants cash and a court order to prevent further use of the design. The patent was issued in March.

The complaint, filed July 2 in U.S. District Court in Texarkana, Texas, reflects the rising use of the U.S. patent system by Chinese companies. U.S. patent applications by residents of mainland China, which excludes Hong Kong and Macau, surged 12-fold between fiscal years 2000 and 2008, according to the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office.

“The Chinese are becoming sophisticated enough to take advantage of the patent system in the U.S.,” said Brian Nester, a lawyer with Fish & Richardson in Washington, who often represents South Korean companies in U.S. patent fights. “You will see more Chinese companies filing suit in the U.S...."

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Roger604

Senior Member
China's stimulus plan are actually budgeted infrastructure projects, not hand outs to financial firms so they can play more funny money games with the fantastic belief that this will align with the interests of the public at large.
 

bladerunner

Banned Idiot
China's stimulus plan are actually budgeted infrastructure projects, not hand outs to financial firms so they can play more funny money games with the fantastic belief that this will align with the interests of the public at large.

I agree that's what it is intended for but Some western analysts are suggesting some of it is being directed into the equities and commodities market by individuals, benefiting from looser bank lending

That's how they're explaining why the Chinese equities market has gained 70% this year.
 
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crobato

Colonel
VIP Professional
The so called stimulus plan are actually infrastructure projects that are already scheduled, regardless of economic situation, plus a few added. They are just conveniently relabeled as "stimulus" for public consumption. You can relabel new PLAN frigate projects for the same reason.

What doesn't count as "stimulus" but acting as a true stimulus package on its own is the massive 3G infrastructure being rapidly laid out across the country by the telecom firms.

Usually, increased infrastructure is a good stock bet because of the increased productivity that ensues with it. So get with the going before the projects are done and the stocks are assumed low.
 

Schumacher

Senior Member
the stock market has very lil to do with China's economy anyways.

True, in short or even medium term stock market can be way out of step with the real economy but in long term, it tracks the economy.
btw, coincidence to this report on stock market or not, China's nominal GDP is said to exceed that of Japan by end of this year. But of course, by PPP, it already happened few years ago.
 

Schumacher

Senior Member
....
But lets not forget that Chinas own leaders have expressed concern at some worrying
trends, and goals that have yet to materialise.. They have supposedly brought forward a Politburo meeting to discuss the economy, which indicates that they could be worried about some underlying aspects. of the economy.

So lets see if some of the Western commentaters belief that the final quarter or, mid next year will tell a different picture rings true... Their doom and gloom is based on the easy credit, to date more than 400billion dollars than all of last year.,
........

Very much like the proverbial 'economy/financial performance will improve/worsen in the next 6 months'. LOL
For those not familiar, it's a known trick of many clueless/wishful thinking commentators of not admitting reality or mistake in their prediction.
Six months ago, many of these guys were saying China was so reliant on exports that even the stimulus would not be enough. The tune has now changed to the current growth will lead to crisis later. Why anyone take these guys seriously is beyond me.
To be sure, some wastage is sure to happen in stimulus, that's just stating the obvious and looks like the Chinese are vigilant of these. So any future issues should be manageable.
 
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