Chinese Economics Thread

solarz

Brigadier
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Sri Lanka’s new government will go ahead with a $1.5 bn Chinese-funded port city project planned by the previous president to avoid misunderstandings with Beijing, an official said Thursday.

Chinese President Xi Jinping officially launched the city’s development on an artificial island during a visit to
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last September. The new government of President Maithripala Sirisena has said it wants to review all projects to ensure they are environmentally viable and corruption-free.

Cabinet spokesman Rajitha Senaratne told reporters that the project will go ahead despite an incomplete environment assessment to avoid a “misunderstanding” with the Chinese government.

Since being elected last month, Sirisena’s government has moved to mend relations with the United States and neighbouring India which were strained during the pro-Beijing administration of former President Mahinda Rajapaksa. The decision to continue the port project is seen as an effort to reassure
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.

Chinese Assistant Foreign Minister Liu Jianchao will meet Sri Lankan Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe on Friday, a government statement said.

Senaratne said an environment impact assessment was completed for the reclamation part of the project but not for the city development.

“But there is time to do that. So the project will continue while rectifying the shortcomings,” he said.
He said the project will be discussed along with any alternations during a visit by Sirisena to Beijing next month.

Under Rajapaksa, relations with China strengthened, with heavy Chinese investment. The port city project became the face of Chinese influence in the country.
Two recent port calls by Chinese submarines at a Chinese-built terminal in Colombo fuelled speculation that Beijing wants to have port access along strategic sea lanes linking the energy-rich Persian Gulf and economic centres in eastern China.

The submarine visits spooked India, which lies just 30 miles (50 kms) from Sri Lanka and shares U.S. uncertainty about Beijing’s intentions as China’s military power grows.

China has become Sri Lanka’s largest lender in recent years, providing more than $6 bn through September 2013 for port facilities, highways and a new international airport.

China also supplied weapons to the government during Sri Lanka’s civil war that ended in 2009 with the defeat of ethnic Tamil separatists, and has defended the Indian Ocean island nation from allegations of human rights abuses and calls for a UN investigation into alleged war crimes.

Just a few weeks ago, I was reading articles that said the current Sri Lanka president campaigned on a promise to scrap the port, and how his win was a "blow" to Beijing. Seems like as usual, they misread the situation.
 

broadsword

Brigadier
Just a few weeks ago, I was reading articles that said the current Sri Lanka president campaigned on a promise to scrap the port, and how his win was a "blow" to Beijing. Seems like as usual, they misread the situation.
Their beef with the port was the lack of transparency and sovereignty. If there was a lack of transparency, the new govt can follow up the trail. 'Sovereignty' is for them to deal with its interpretation, after all they have the final say.

What is undeniable is the economic multiplier benefits to Sri Lanka from the initial $1.5b outlay, which they would have a hard time supplanting. Unlike others, it is never China's policy to interfere in the internal politics of other countries, so Sri Lanka can confidently cozy up to other countries than China.
 

Franklin

Captain
For the month of january China's export fell by 3,3% and China's import fell by 19,9%. Leaving China with a trade surplus of 60 billion dollars for the month.

China's exports, imports slump in January, record trade surplus

China's exports fell 3.3 percent in January from a year earlier, while imports slumped by 19.9 percent, both missing expectations by a wide margin, and resulting in a record monthly trade surplus of $60 billion.

Thinking that easing measures in Europe would boost demand for Chinese goods, analysts polled by Reuters had expected to exports to rise by 6.3 percent, and imports to fall by only 3 percent, to give a trade deficit of $48.9 billion.

Instead, exports slid 12 percent on a monthly basis, while imports dove 21.1 percent, according to the data released by the Customs Administration said on Sunday.

The decline was led by a sharp slide in commodities imports, in particular imports of coal which dropped nearly 40 percent to 16.78 million tonnes, down from December's 27.22 million tonnes, as well as a scale back in crude oil imports, which slid 7.9 percent.

While the trade data augured badly for an economy that suffered its slowest economic growth in 24 years in 2014, analysts say strong seasonal distortions due to the Lunar New Year holiday make it difficult to interpret the data. Last year the holiday fell in January, and this year it falls in February.

China's export numbers tend to be erratic, sharp moves in opposite directions are common and the combined January and February figures are often a more accurate gauge of the overall trend, analysts say.

Officials have said that while they expect Chinese exports to improve, the sector would continue to face headwinds in 2015.

The government is expected to lower its GDP target to around 7 percent this year, after posting 7.4 percent in 2014.

Policymakers have responded to the weakness by cutting interest rates and, on Wednesday, cutting the amount of reserves banks must hold back when lending, but the measures were largely seen as holding the line, with most economists calling for more easing in the pipeline to reinvigorate growth.

China's yuan fell 2.5 percent in 2014 and has lost another 0.6 percent so far in 2015, providing some relief to exporters after four years of uninterrupted appreciation.

During 2014, China's total trade value increased by 3.4 percent from a year earlier, short of the official target of 7.5 percent, and some analysts have raised questions about whether export data was inflated by fake invoicing as firms speculated in the currency and commodities markets.

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solarz

Brigadier
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In December, representatives of the U.S., China and Afghanistan met for private talks in London, the first time the three countries convened to seek ways to forge peace in Afghanistan, a senior U.S. official said.

The previously undisclosed meeting, which came within days of a visit by the Afghan Taliban to Beijing, was a step on a path long resisted by China, wary of the U.S. military presence in Afghanistan and reluctant to meddle in its neighbor’s affairs. The three countries met again last month at an international meeting on Afghanistan in the United Arab Emirates, one participant said.

China’s move toward the role of mediator signals a foreign policy shift in Beijing—for decades focused on domestic issues—that could recalibrate the geopolitics of Central Asia and test China’s capacity as a regional leader, Western officials said.

“In a certain sense, they’re competing with the U.S. for success in Afghanistan. They want to prove they can do it better,” said David Sedney, a former U.S. diplomat in Beijing and Kabul and deputy assistant secretary of defense for Afghanistan, Pakistan and Central Asia from 2009 to 2013.

U.S. officials declined to discuss the outcome of the talks. But China’s participation is seen as part of a broader diplomatic effort that began around the time Chinese President
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took power in 2012 and has since intensified.

The December trip to Beijing by the
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was the second in recent months, Afghan and foreign officials said. And it came weeks after Afghan President Ashraf Ghani ’s visit to Beijing, his first official trip abroad.

Beijing has also pledged $327 million in economic aid to Kabul through 2017, and now appears to be exploring ways to enhance Afghanistan’s security as the
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.

China’s foreign ministry said Beijing wanted to play a “constructive role” supporting an Afghan-led peace process, but didn’t respond to specific questions about the Taliban visits or other diplomatic activities. Afghan officials have said they welcomed a role by China.

The initiative in Afghanistan reflects Mr. Xi’s drive to enhance regional diplomacy and China’s international standing, experts say, as well as challenge the U.S. as the primary underwriter of regional peace and prosperity.

The Taliban last month issued its first statement acknowledging contacts with China, but denied that Beijing was involved in peace talks. It said the recent Taliban delegation’s visit to China was intended to build neighborly relations.

Others familiar with the visit said Beijing hoped to host talks between the Taliban and Afghanistan’s government—and the effort appeared to be gaining traction. A former senior Taliban commander said another delegation would visit China soon and Russia would join those talks. Russia’s foreign ministry said only that it supported an Afghan-led peace process.

Despite reservations about China’s more assertive foreign policy elsewhere, the U.S. has welcomed Chinese involvement in Afghanistan after a decade of being rebuffed by Beijing, current and former U.S. officials said. Washington is waiting for more details about China’s plans, they said.

China has already started training Afghan police, an Afghan security official said, and is considering funding for nonlethal security equipment.

It remains unclear whether China has the political will or diplomatic resources to succeed. “It will take a long time to know whether they can achieve a result,” said Mohammad Mohaqeq, a senior Afghan government official.

But Beijing has a strong motive to try. China has long worried that instability in Afghanistan and Pakistan would worsen unrest in its Muslim northwest, where officials blame ethnic Uighur separatists for a recent surge in violence.

These fears have grown as the U.S.-led military involvement winds down in Afghanistan, creating a potential security vacuum.

During
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last year, Chinese security officials began visiting Kabul regularly, and expressed concerns about militant havens, according to a former senior Afghan security official.

Franz-Michael Mellbin, the European Union envoy to Afghanistan, said he first noticed increased Chinese interest in Afghanistan in 2013. “They have been looking for an area to expand their foreign policy toolbox,” he said, “but also doing it in a way that would not be seen strategically threatening to the U.S.”

During an October conference on Afghanistan in Beijing, a Chinese general surprised some U.S. participants by suggesting the Pentagon inquire about a joint effort with China to train Afghan security forces, say people familiar with the matter.

Until recently, such a joint venture would have been inconceivable. U.S. officials contacted the Chinese military and after some discussion, concluded there wasn’t serious interest. China was simply testing ideas about what it could do in Afghanistan, a senior U.S. official said.

Past peace initiatives in Afghanistan have failed, including a U.S.-backed effort in mid-2013 to hold talks in Qatar.

But China has some diplomatic advantages, including funds that Afghanistan desperately needs; a strong desire to curb Islamic extremism; and working relations with the main parties, including Iran and Russia.

Mr. Ghani, the Afghanistan president, has long experience dealing with China from his time at the World Bank. He sees Beijing as an important source of aid and investment, say people who have spoken to him.

In addition, Mr. Ghani and other officials see China as a source of influence over Pakistan, a China ally that is home to Taliban havens, and which would have to be involved in any peace deal, they say.

“We hope that China will play a proactive role in bringing peace to Afghanistan, because whatever the Chinese do, they do it according to a plan and with focus,” Mr. Ghani said in a speech last month to mark the 60th anniversary of China-Afghan relations. “Now, as they have become involved, we will witness more steps toward achieving peace.”

China has ruled out sending troops, unless they are part of a United Nations peacekeeping force. One idea by U.S. participants in talks with China is for Beijing to provide Afghanistan with older Russian-designed Mi-17 helicopters, which are similar to aircraft the U.S. has given Afghan security forces.

China’s defense ministry didn’t respond to a request for comment.

Beijing would be hesitant about providing such heavy weaponry, said Hu Shisheng, an Afghanistan expert at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, a think tank linked to the Ministry of State Security.

But he described as “feasible and realistic” the idea of U.S.-China training of Afghan forces outside Afghanistan—helicopter pilots, for example. The two countries are already jointly training diplomats for the Afghanistan government.

Mr. Hu, a participant in many of the recent talks on Afghanistan, said China was asking Pakistan to encourage the Taliban to join reconciliation efforts and was offering more aid to Islamabad.

Pakistan will work with China to support the Afghan peace process, a Pakistani foreign ministry statement said Monday after talks in Kabul between Chinese, Pakistani and Afghan officials.

China has kept a low profile in Afghanistan for the past decade after supplying the mujahedeen resistance against Soviet forces in the 1980s. When the Taliban was in power in the 1990s, China never established diplomatic relations. But it opened trade ties and met Taliban leaders to ask them not to support separatists in the mostly-Muslim northwestern Chinese region of Xinjiang.

Since 2002, China has maintained contacts with Taliban leaders, mostly through meetings inside Pakistan, according to foreign diplomats and Chinese and Western scholars.

As a result, China’s position on Afghanistan has largely mirrored Pakistan’s for much of the last decade, advocating a political role for the Taliban and a swift exit by U.S. troops. But in the past few years, concerns have grown in Beijing about Pakistan’s ability to keep Islamic extremism in check, according to Western and Chinese experts.

“China wants to be a world power. Now it’s going to learn how hard that is, how hard it is to exercise influence and achieve the results you want,” said Mr. Sedney, the former Pentagon official. “I’m not predicting that they’ll fail, but it’s an unknown.”

This article is interesting because it is reveals the kind of wishful thinking and narrow vision that led to the Afghanistan and Iraqi debacles in the first place. The assumption in the article is that Afghanistan must be subdued with force of arms, and that China wants to take up where the US left off because only then would they be considered a world power.

Both assumptions are ludicrous, of course, but they show that certain people have learned nothing from these 15 years of quagmire.
 

broadsword

Brigadier
I think China is invaluable to the Talibans because not only is it a neighbor, it already has big investments in the mineral industry and can help in the reconstruction of the country. Most importantly, it does not try to exert its influence on who gets ruling power in other countries. So it is more trustworthy than Western countries.
 

Equation

Lieutenant General
Why would the US
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to illegal trade practices by China less than 24 hours after the two countries’ presidents shared a rare phone call to discuss their nations’ relations?




That timing, and the relatively small size of the subsidies in question—$1 billion over three years—suggests that the US bringing this case before the World Trade Organization is largely intended to send a message to a domestic audience: We’re tough on trade violations, and you can count on us to enforce the rules.




That’s an important message for president Barack Obama to get across, as he pushes for a free trade pact for 18 countries around the Pacific rim. Lawmakers from both parties are skeptical of both the negotiating process and whether new rules will mean increased prosperity. For the Obama administration, the Trans-Pacific Partnership is a key way to lock in a global rule-set that protects the US led-economic order as China attempts to craft its own Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership:




david-yanofsky_asiatrademap_update_001.png

Economists tend to argue that free trade boosts growth, but the creative destruction associated with such changes has led to fewer middle-income jobs in the US and other advanced economies, while the benefits
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. Labor-friendly politicians on the left
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Obama’s opponents on the right in an attempt to scuttle legislation that would give the president a free hand to negotiate the pact, considered a virtual pre-condition of reaching a deal.




Many opponents want the pact to include provisions to punish currency manipulation, a non-starter with the administration. And compromises on issues related to public health, intellectual property, labor and environmental rules all seem far away. Negotiating drafts are largely kept secret from the public, raising lawmakers’ ire, particularly when
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straying from the White House’s public promises.




In its challenge to illegal trade practices by China, the US says that “common service platforms” funded by the Chinese government provided $1 billion in free services over three years to “demonstration base” production facilities that accounted for 12% of Chinese textile exports and 20% of Chinese aquaculture exports in 2012. However, the details of this arrangement remain unclear, and may not differ significantly from the Obama administration’s own $1 billion investment
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across the US.




If the Obama’s aim is to reassure lawmakers who oppose the free-trade pact, it’s unclear how effective the maneuver, which elides their fundamental concerns, will be.A number of lawmakers with constituents who compete against subsidized Chinese exports spoke out in support of the administration’s challenge, but only one of them, California’s Scott Peters, is
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who oppose giving Obama the authority to fast-track a trade deal.
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