Chinese Economics Thread

mros1

New Member
Registered Member
No, it's not the size that's the difference; I'm not saying that Q1-Q3 are too small and therefore not comparable to whole years (they are but that's not my point). I'm saying that the logic of multiplying consecutive quarters using year-on-year data is mathematically flawed. For example:

You have consecutive quarters A1, B1, C1, D1, A2, B2, C2, D2 spanning 2 years.
GDP is the total amount of goods and services produced in a country in a set time period. Full-year GDP is therefore A1+B1+C1+D1 or A2+B2+C2+D2. Change in Q1-Q3 GDP would be the sum of output in A2+B2+C2 divided by the sum of output in A1+B2+C1 subtracted by 1.

China reports headline GDP growth (the one that is used by the NBS and copied by media outlets) is going to be A2/A1, B2/B1, C2/C1 or D2/D1 with requisite seasonal adjustments depending on what quarter it is in.

The United States reports headline GDP growth (the one used by the BEA and copied by media outlets) as a seasonally annualized rate so it will either be (B1/A1)^4 - 1, (C1/B1)^4-1, (D1/C1)^4-1, etc. This similarly applies to the amount of GDP provided by the BEA, the BEA takes the total amount produced in any given quarter and multiplies it by 4 to annualize GDP. Therefore, to figure out how much the US produced in Q1+Q2+Q3, you would have to divide individual quarter numbers by 4 and add them together; while for China you would simply add the three together (since China does not annualize). You would not use annualized 4Q22 GDP as a reference point to compare Q1-Q3 GDP because it is excluded in both; in any case, US 2022 GDP would be the sum of 1Q+2Q+3Q+4Q, not just 4Q.

The US grew at 2.4% in 1Q-3Q GDP in 2022 compared to 2021; China grew at 3%.
 

supercat

Major
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
It doesn't matter much at this point. Chinese workers can't do assembling works for foreign companies forever. They need to move up the value chain anyway.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
What's happening with the steep drop in demand? Isn't this a harbinger of global recession?

The US grew at 2.4% in 1Q-3Q GDP in 2022 compared to 2021; China grew at 3%.
The numbers look a little bit different from projections by financial institutions.
Zm0pkZp.png

ushcoHb.jpg


As I said before, Yuan would only go up in the long term.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Wait until Xi's visit to Saudi Arabia and the Arab-China Summit.

A key construction project of the China-Russia east-route natural gas pipeline was completed on Saturday. It will allow Russian gas to cross the Yangtze River to reach Shanghai, laying the foundation for the full completion of the landmark China-Russia energy cooperation project.

The under-river tunnel across the Yangtze River, a key control project of the pipeline, was completed after 28 months of construction, according to PipeChina.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
@manqiangrexue your chew toy is back.
Ugh... it's fun when I'm bored at work but it's annoying on the weekends. Could you guys take out the trash Friday afternoon to Sunday if it shows up?
GDP is the total amount of goods and services produced in a country in a set time period. Full-year GDP is therefore A1+B1+C1+D1 or A2+B2+C2+D2. Change in Q1-Q3 GDP would be the sum of output in A2+B2+C2 divided by the sum of output in A1+B2+C1 subtracted by 1.

China reports headline GDP growth (the one that is used by the NBS and copied by media outlets) is going to be A2/A1, B2/B1, C2/C1 or D2/D1 with requisite seasonal adjustments depending on what quarter it is in.

The United States reports headline GDP growth (the one used by the BEA and copied by media outlets) as a seasonally annualized rate so it will either be (B1/A1)^4 - 1, (C1/B1)^4-1, (D1/C1)^4-1, etc. This similarly applies to the amount of GDP provided by the BEA, the BEA takes the total amount produced in any given quarter and multiplies it by 4 to annualize GDP. Therefore, to figure out how much the US produced in Q1+Q2+Q3, you would have to divide individual quarter numbers by 4 and add them together; while for China you would simply add the three together (since China does not annualize). You would not use annualized 4Q22 GDP as a reference point to compare Q1-Q3 GDP because it is excluded in both; in any case, US 2022 GDP would be the sum of 1Q+2Q+3Q+4Q, not just 4Q.
It does not matter how China reports or how the US reports; it matters that you get your data from the same place and that they are comparable, which is what I did. What I did NOT do is compare a different metric between the US and China. I compared China vs US year-to-year growth for full years 2019-2021. That's done and history; you don't have anything against that. Then, when we don't have a full year, we just want to see how the first 3 quarters went, we don't use annual numbers for that; we use quarterly. There is no such thing as a year-to-year comparison of just 3 quarters; that's why the quarterly measure exists. Taking all prior years as history and already compared, we use quarterly data in 2022, for both China and the US. For quarterly data, China goes 1.016x0.973x1.039=1.027 which is 2.7% and the US goes at 0.984x0.994x1.026=1.0035, which is 0.35%.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Those are directly comparable; there is no question about that. Do you think they are not?
The US grew at 2.4% in 1Q-3Q GDP in 2022 compared to 2021; China grew at 3%.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Your entire challenge is to spin this chart from Q4 2021 to Q3 2022 to look like there is growth when the line itself is a dip and return, flat in effect. The only way you can attempt that is to compare regular GDP performance from early 2022 to recovery performance in 2021 as the US was just stumbling up from getting cratered in 2020. Q4 2021 is when that period ended and from then to now, this is America's current situation of stagnation (actually stagflation but that's a different point). The real situation is obvious: China posted clear growth from Q4 2021 to Q3 2022 and the US did not.
 
Last edited:

BoraTas

Captain
Registered Member
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
LOL. Sleepy you realize that demand collapse is from the USA and that is a very strong sign of recession, right?

Their calculation is quite funny too. They took the immediate aftermath of the Russian invasion as the base for US-EU trade but they used the summer peak for China. If we take the summer peak as the base for US-EU trade too, then US-EU trade has declined by 13% too.

CNBC and you should troll better. Your current level is easy to spot unless your IQ is lower than your shoe size number.
 
Top