Where is the source for this Bloomberg writers data? He didn't link it in his article. Anyone have it?
Chinese Economics Thread
- Thread starter Norfolk
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See my avatar for how insightful his take is.
11 months of making homes affordable and GDP is still going up! That really shows that the property industry is not as important as western economists claim
This is the actual article
The property "collapse" is in some ways a good thing.
Property prices skyrocketing cannot be sustainable in the long term (see 2008 recession), growth from easy money has it's limits.
To tackle the youth unemployment, the government will need to to ease up on some of the recent heavy handed regulation it has passed especially in regards to the tech sector. EdTech, FinTech, Gaming, all of these are very attractive opportunities in China, but the government has come down hard on them.
Loosening Covid restrictions will also be key. The lack of any tourism industry is really hurting young people the most. Tour Guides, hotel staff, other service staff are often young people.
Youth unemployment number is not good, but not outrageous. Even countries like Italy and Sweden have youth unemployment of 20+% and no one is thinking those countries are descending into unbridled chaos.
Of course, the external factors is also creating a feedback loop. A worsening economic situation around the world means people everywhere are tightening the purse strings and means output is restricted. This aspect is not really mentioned.
As an aside, some of the responses to those tweets are really mind numbing.
The property "collapse" is in some ways a good thing.
Property prices skyrocketing cannot be sustainable in the long term (see 2008 recession), growth from easy money has it's limits.
To tackle the youth unemployment, the government will need to to ease up on some of the recent heavy handed regulation it has passed especially in regards to the tech sector. EdTech, FinTech, Gaming, all of these are very attractive opportunities in China, but the government has come down hard on them.
Loosening Covid restrictions will also be key. The lack of any tourism industry is really hurting young people the most. Tour Guides, hotel staff, other service staff are often young people.
Youth unemployment number is not good, but not outrageous. Even countries like Italy and Sweden have youth unemployment of 20+% and no one is thinking those countries are descending into unbridled chaos.
Of course, the external factors is also creating a feedback loop. A worsening economic situation around the world means people everywhere are tightening the purse strings and means output is restricted. This aspect is not really mentioned.
As an aside, some of the responses to those tweets are really mind numbing.
1. Home sales crashing by 28% is actually a good thing. It needs to be closer to 70-80%. Housing prices in tier-1 Chinese cities make cities like London look cheap.
2. I agree that ZeroCovid is a gigantic disaster but the CCP has dug its heel in and refuses to accept their mistakes.
I am more concerned about local gov budgets suffering from low home sales (tax). From what I see the home sales are declining a tad too fast for the local governments to adjust their revenue streams.
I think the central government is the key here. From what I am seeing it is already releasing special funds to the local govs in order to cover some of their lost revenues
Yes I def agree 100%. Bursting of the housing bubble is the best way to bring down housing prices.
I changed my avatar to a person shoving ice cream up their nose because she still makes neocon Twitter and JHs look like Einstein.
Zero-Covid was the right strategy in 2020, probably even most of 2021. However it's 2022, and it's probably time for a new strategy. I don't think it's a matter of refusing to accept mistakes. I don't think there is a clear consensus on how to move on. That being said, it should be more of a scientific decision at this point rather than political.
With regards to the brain-drain. This is the US' own self-inflicted gunshot wound. Everyone with half a brain knew their xenophobic anti-immigrant policy drive is leading to this outcome. For 50 years (basically since the post-80's opening up), only foreign universities were worth going to for graduate studies and the US was the best. Then in the 2000's there was that crap with Wen Ho Lee and has only gotten worse.
Pardon my ignorance, but what is JH?
Those troglodytes on twitter talking about "real vaccines" are really something. They don't even realize that many countries have already reopened fully while relying primarily on Chinese vaccines. If they are so ignorant on something like this, why do they expect people to think they are correct when they assert that the US/West is the shining beacon of freedom and democracy for all the world to follow?