Chinese Economics Thread

horse

Major
Registered Member
While US dependency on Chinese export keep rising so where is trade war? It is clearly a fail policy that should be discarded but Biden admin become the prisoner of anti China sentiment in US
Exactly! That is why on day one Biden should have cancelled the Trump trade war.

At this point in the game, all the Americans are doing is taxing their own poor people. Haha!

We have to expect the Americans to not be this stupid. Guess we are wrong for now. Double Haha! Haha!

That is why we have to fully expect the Biden people to scale back all their anti-China efforts. The longer they wait, the more damage is done onto themselves.

:)
 

KYli

Brigadier
Giving more subsidies to the SOE´s is another example of the chinese government not moving towards more of a market-driven, less state-intervention, economy. They need to become more efficient and productive. Otherwise, they will indefinetly stay an export-dependent economy, that is, until they become too expensive to export. Then what?
What do you call the trillions dollars of stimulus? Isn't that the biggest state-intervention. Many Chinese state owned companies are very efficient and productive.

China is no longer an export-dependent economy as total trade of percentage of GDP is just 35% and would decline further down the road. China top export is electrical machinery and equipment not some labor intensive exports such as toys, clothing, and textiles.

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horse

Major
Registered Member
Giving more subsidies to the SOE´s is another example of the chinese government not moving towards more of a market-driven, less state-intervention, economy. They need to become more efficient and productive. Otherwise, they will indefinitly stay an export-dependent economy, that is, until they become too expensive to export. Then what?
Not sure where this information come from, it misses the mark.

The state sector is shrinking relative to what it use to be in the Chinese economy.

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Since the 2008 financial crisis, the Chinese economy more than doubled.
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The state owned enterprises seem to have grown along with the Chinese economy.

The biggest increasing driver of growth appear to be the Chinese consumer. The SOE plays its role, but hardly they are driving the Chinese economy.

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Orthan

Senior Member
Many Chinese state owned companies are very efficient and productive.
Define "many". Easy acess to bank credit helps. State subsidies also help.

China is no longer an export-dependent economy as total trade of percentage of GDP is just 35% and would decline further down the road.
Sorry. I should have also said debt-dependence economy, in adition of export-dependence.

China top export is electrical machinery and equipment
The question is, how much of this exports are chinese brands? if they are foreign brands, they may, in time, relocate to another, cheaper country.
 

weig2000

Captain
Giving more subsidies to the SOE´s is another example of the chinese government not moving towards more of a market-driven, less state-intervention, economy. They need to become more efficient and productive. Otherwise, they will indefinetly stay an export-dependent economy, that is, until they become too expensive to export. Then what?

The accusation about subsidies to the SOE by the West is often overblown, hypocritical or false, like those that say Chinese government subsidizes Huawei hugely. The US and other western countries also regularly subsidize its own companies; it's just they sometimes do it in different industries or in different ways. For example, the US has always subsidized Boeing through large defense contracts, while Europe subsidizes more directly to Airbus when it started and afterward.

Support or subsidy to SOE or private companies, if done strategically and selectively, has its societal benefits, above and beyond just profits. It is often done to correct the failure of the market or when maximizing profit is not the right or the only objective. For example, infrastructure funding is done very differently in China from that in the US. Another example is how Chinese government cultivates and promotes the EV market in China, which has profound impact on the industry and market. Chinese policies and subsidies have played huge role in getting them off the ground. Now many governments around the world are following China's example. For strategic industry such as semiconductor, which has national security implications, subsidies are necessary - I assume you don't need me to review the US sanctions against China in this industry.

In the end, if industrial policies or subsidies are not successful, they'll simply drain resources from the economy and become unsustainable. The fact that Chinese government has been strategically and selectively doing them and, more importantly, that the US and other western governments are strongly against them are clearly proof positive that they're good policies and working. The US is now clearly, unmistakably learning from China and moving closer to Chinese model. Whether it can out-China China is yet to be seen.
 
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Petrolicious88

Senior Member
Registered Member
But it mentions that impact will be temporary because State Media isn't pursuing this anymore. Looks like CPC loves giving second chances to foreign brands.
In so many ways, the CPS is actually controlling Chinese nationalism, limiting it so it doesn’t ever get out of control. This is something most people don’t realize.

The opposite is happening in India, where ultranationalism is out of control, and constantly encourage by local media.
 

weig2000

Captain
The question is, how much of this exports are chinese brands? if they are foreign brands, they may, in time, relocate to another, cheaper country.

If cheaper is the only criterion, then they do and should, because China is not going to be always the cheap country. In fact, there have been many foreign companies moving out of China since 2008. Yet there are more companies and more investments are going into China. That's why we're seeing Chinese exports and FDI into China keep setting records.

It's very simple. China is moving up the value-chain. Vietnam has gotten a lot of FDI in the last few years - many of them from Chinese companies, yet Chinese export to Vietnam has also increased substantially. It's not pure coincidence.

You need to get over your obsession with and mental blockage about "Some foreign companies are moving out of China to cheaper countries, therefore China is going down." It's very simplistic thinking. You've been educated many times on this subject in the past, yet appear to have been stuck and unable to get pass.
 
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siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Here is the Hillary Clinton that was promised but never came to be. She's looking ghoulish these days. To think that I once liked the idea of her becoming the U.S. President, man, that was some scary times.


Getting rich is easy. All you need is 10 million dollars in cash and knowing which stocks to invest in. Cutting dependency on China is just as easy as getting rich.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Giving more subsidies to the SOE´s is another example of the chinese government not moving towards more of a market-driven, less state-intervention, economy. They need to become more efficient and productive. Otherwise, they will indefinitly stay an export-dependent economy, that is, until they become too expensive to export. Then what?
Actually export as share of GDP has been declining for many years it is less than 20%. So yeah China try to wean away from export. But Covid 19 throw the spanner when everywhere is now in lockdown. China is the factory of last resort because no other country has the range pf product, factories and supply chain like China
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KYli

Brigadier
Define "many". Easy acess to bank credit helps. State subsidies also help.


Sorry. I should have also said debt-dependence economy, in adition of export-dependence.


The question is, how much of this exports are chinese brands? if they are foreign brands, they may, in time, relocate to another, cheaper country.
Many means many as China has transferred many of the state owned companies shares to social security funds to fund retirement and healthcare in China. Those state owned companies market values have been increasing and contributing more and more for social security funds.

China debt GDP ratio is much lower than the US and many other advanced countries.

Samsung and many Japanese companies have already moved many of their factories to SEA and SA but the Chinese exports are still increasing. So your concern is irrelevant.
 
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