Chinese Economics Thread

[Deleted member 15887]

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Oxford Economics now forecasts 9.3% economic growth for FY2021 in China (pending vaccination efforts), joining Bloomberg Economics (+9.3%) and UBS (+9.0%) forecasts for above 9% growth in 2021

Of course, these forecasts also correlate with the higher US GDP forecasts for this year.

Generally, the correlation seems to be if US reports 6+% growth this year, China will report 9+% growth correspondingly.

Similarly, if the US grows above 7+% this year (exceedingly unlikely in my view, but whatever let's entertain it for the sake of it), then China will likely report 10+% growth correspondingly.

Now, the possibility of 10+% growth for China this year cannot be ruled out. It definitely could happen, especially on the back of greater-than-expected export demand from the US.

 

[voyager1]

Of course, these forecasts also correlate with the higher US GDP forecasts for this year.

Generally, the correlation seems to be if US reports 6+% growth this year, China will report 9+% growth correspondingly.

Similarly, if the US grows above 7+% this year (exceedingly unlikely in my view, but whatever let's entertain it for the sake of it), then China will likely report 10+% growth correspondingly.

Now, the possibility of 10+% growth for China this year cannot be ruled out. It definitely could happen, especially on the back of greater-than-expected export demand from the US.

The US growth is garbage, they just borrow 10% of their gdp to increase their growth by a couple of points.

China should want high-quality growth and seek to develerage as much as possible. The debt is a time-bomb approaching dangerously the point of blow up so China must solve it.

US on the other hand is neck deep on the debt and is currently on a delicate balance. China should keep strong and stop credit growth otherwise it will get Japan if it let the debt grow too much

 

[Hendrik_2000]

Chinese economy keep growing on all engine Now the service sector picked up

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China’s economic recovery continued in March, driven by better-than-expected surge in service sector​

• China’s non-manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) – a gauge of sentiment in the service and construction sectors – rose to 56.3 in March from 51.4 in February
• The official manufacturing PMI – a survey of sentiment among factory owners in the world’s second-largest economy – rose to 51.9 in March from 50.6 in February

China’s economic recovery continued in March, powered by a better-than-expected surge in the service sector, data released on Wednesday showed.
China’s non-manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) – a gauge of sentiment in the

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and construction sectors – rose to a four-month high of 56.3 in March from

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according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The result was above expectations, with analysts predicting a rise to 52.
The official manufacturing PMI – a survey of sentiment among factory owners in the world’s second-largest economy – rose to a three-month high of 51.9 in March from 50.6 in February. March’s reading was above the median prediction of 51.2 in a Bloomberg poll of analysts.

 

[escobar]

US ban on Xinjiang cotton having extra-territorial reach.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1377181875177803776

 

[BoraTas]

US ban on Xinjiang cotton having extra-territorial reach.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1377181875177803776

Most of Xinjiang cotton is used in China for Chinese consumers. America forcing other countries to obey it via economic coercion is not a new thing.

 

[Team Blue]

The H&M fiasco seems like the latest indication that we've had it far too easy for far too long.

Unfortunately I doubt the lack of pushback from other countries on this will do much to change attitudes. It's going to keep going until China has a far bigger "victory" as it were.

 

[Deleted member 15887]

Chinese economy keep growing on all engine Now the service sector picked up

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China’s economic recovery continued in March, driven by better-than-expected surge in service sector​

• China’s non-manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) – a gauge of sentiment in the service and construction sectors – rose to 56.3 in March from 51.4 in February
• The official manufacturing PMI – a survey of sentiment among factory owners in the world’s second-largest economy – rose to 51.9 in March from 50.6 in February

China’s economic recovery continued in March, powered by a better-than-expected surge in the service sector, data released on Wednesday showed.
China’s non-manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) – a gauge of sentiment in the

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

and construction sectors – rose to a four-month high of 56.3 in March from

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The result was above expectations, with analysts predicting a rise to 52.
The official manufacturing PMI – a survey of sentiment among factory owners in the world’s second-largest economy – rose to a three-month high of 51.9 in March from 50.6 in February. March’s reading was above the median prediction of 51.2 in a Bloomberg poll of analysts.

What do you think the likelihood of 20+% YoY growth is for the First Quarter?

 

[Strangelove]

What would happen if the US would threaten China to deny access to SWIFT ? I was wondering why Trump didn't do it and let China had huge trades with Iran on his watch

China can use CIPS, China's international payment system. The fact the SWIFT recently cut a deal with China's central bank (PBOC) for a joint-venture regarding digital currency is to ensure China's continual participation in SWIFT. If China leaves SWIFT and use CIPS exclusively, SWIFT will see a major competitor.

 

[Strangelove]

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Then don't bite the hand feeds you. I thought Australia had more reliable alternative markets to sell to.

The white convict nation is hugely unreliable given its repeated discrimination against Chinese investments in australia, repeated discrimination against australia-based Chinese nationals (treated as spies), repeated discrimination against Asian australians and repeated spreading of fake news and disinformation regarding Hong Kong and Xinjiang. All classical criminal behavior.

The british-criminal DNA still runs deep amoung white australians.

 

[voyager1]

Anybody knows when China will announce its Q1 GDP growth figures?