Chinese Economics Thread
- Thread starter Norfolk
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Could be much higher if they would just make everywhere SEZ.
Everyone outside SEZs feel like they getting screwed.
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Deleted member 15887
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Seems like the growth target is shifting to a growth floor.... virtually all economists project 8-9% growth this year
@cbl21 dampened market expectation? they don't need more speculative money entering their markets? or just being Chinese.
China pre-Covid trajectory was at least 6% per year. If China had grown 6% in 2020 and 6% in 2021 the total growth during this period 2020-2021 would be 12%. In order to get to that, China actually needs to grow about 10% this year. This is just to get back to the pre-Covid trajectory. Although you can subtract 1%-2% if you think it will get back to that trajectory next year, bottom line is hopefully China's growth is at least 8%-9% this year.
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Deleted member 15887
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No, it's more that the central gov't doesn't want to "overheat" the economy anymore. With growth targets in previous years, they were always a reach for provinces to try and aim for, causing a balloon in debt, which increases financial risk. If China sets an official 8% growth target this year, most provinces will inadvertently hit 10% trying to exceed expectations, causing debt to balloon in the process.@cbl21 dampened market expectation? they don't need more speculative money entering their markets? or just being Chinese.
So the growth target this year (and into the future) will be a growth "floor": basically, the central gov't tells provinces "try to keep your growth above this very reasonable and easily achievable level, but don't go crazy with spending to try and boost GDP to unreasonable heights".
6% pre-COVID is not the same as 6% during/post-COVID. With most major economies contracting or having minimum growth 6% is already quite the achievement.
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Deleted member 15887
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China would need to grow 9.5% this year to return completely to pre-Covid trajectory. Probably achievable with a little stimulus, but then again depends on if the new US stimulus will help Chinese exports like it did last year
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Deleted member 15887
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As I said, the growth target is becoming a growth floor now. Its a sort of "worst-case scenario" baseline to keep growth well above, rather than a reach target goal for provinces. In effect, the growth target as we previously knew it is all but eliminated.