Chinese Economics Thread


"the engineer" article about china´s dependency of australia´s iron ore:

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It seems that china will have to go for another infrastructure spending boom (more bridges to nowhere, IMO) in order to stimulate the economy, because the chinese consumer doesnt have the ability to do it.

If so, this is what happens when you have an export and debt driven economy.
Give me some examples of bridges to nowhere that China built? U do realize consumption actually make up the majority of Chinese GDP right?

Iron ore is sold by plenty of countries, oz just happen to be close.


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Thoughts on these graphs? Personally, I'd argue that growth rate for the next few years will be slightly higher than this World Bank projection (>6% rather than <6%).
Regarding the poverty chart, I'd argue that China's true poverty line should adhere to Upper-Middle Income standards rather than the International (~$1.90/day) line. If we peg China's true rate of poverty at UMIC standards, it would be 13% by 2022, which, while significantly better than before, is not, in my view, enough. The day China pushes its UMIC-based poverty rate below 10% is the day it can truly be defined as a developed country on par with the likes of European countries on a per-capita basis.
Open to thoughts and discussion though!
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China's factory activity accelerates at solid pace in September on boost from overseas demand

Gabriel Crossley
Tue, September 29, 2020, 9:39 PM EDT

BEIJING (Reuters) - China's factory activity extended solid growth in September, twin surveys showed, as the nation's crucial exports engine revved up on improving overseas demand and underlined a steady economic recovery from the coronavirus shock.

The official manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) rose to 51.5 in September from 51.0 in August, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Wednesday, remaining above the 50-point mark that separates growth from contraction for the seventh month.

Analysts had expected it to pick up slightly to 51.2.


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I lost confidence in Bloomberg ever since they came out with that BS piece about Chinese "spy chips" in servers. Everyone in the trade industry shot them down for it.

With regards to sources for minerals, iron isn't particularly scarce to begin with, it is one of the most common metals in the planet. It is also usually easy to recycle so China can easily upkeep their own societal standards even if they did not import anymore. China also has a huge opportunity just next door. Mongolia is open for mining business after centuries where mining activities were forbidden for religious reasons. A veritable treasure trove just next door and close to where much of Chinese heavy industry is.

With regards to China's alleged construction binge it still isn't the end. China did very smart investments in building more dense city areas which mean they will need a lot less energy per capita to achieve the same high living standards. The high speed rail, subway, etc, construction together with high and mid rises were all good bets at the time. China has recently capped construction of further high rises to increase cost effectiveness and there are still a lot of improvements to build in cleaner energy, clean water, sanitation, etc.
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Here's a land mark turning point. This could be the pinnacle moment.

From Liu Xin.

Jan-July figures show that for the 1st time #China was the top trading partner of the #EU, replacing US. A good sign amid mounting challenges and obstacles. Much more remains to be done. But there's reason to be confident in the past 45 years of cooperation.