Chinese Economics Thread


AssassinsMace

Brigadier
Trump still has to approve it. I woke up watching the news and one said that Oracle won because they get the cloud services end while Bytedance is still in control. That doesn't sound like Bytedance is selling off TikTok. They also said every scenario of this deal China wins except for an outright ban of TikTok.
 

AndrewS

Major
Registered Member
Trump still has to approve it. I woke up watching the news and one said that Oracle won because they get the cloud services end while Bytedance is still in control. That doesn't sound like Bytedance is selling off TikTok. They also said every scenario of this deal China wins except for an outright ban of TikTok.
Also, given the recent musings that the US will mount a full-scale attack on Tiktok globally after the Tiktok US users are separated, there is absolutely no way Bytedance will ever entertain a sale.
 

supersnoop

Junior Member
Registered Member
Could you expand on this?
Oracle's founder and largest shareholder is Trump supporter Larry Ellison.
They are (seemingly, since we don't have all the details yet) essentially getting a huge cloud services contract for one of the most popular social networking sites in the world just because Trump decided to make a big deal about it.

Again we don't know all the details yet. However, we know that there is no technology changing hands. Also it seems like Wal-Mart will be involved in a separate deal to integrate e-commerce features (apparently based on the Chinese version Douyin)
 

weig2000

Junior Member
It appears to be a good compromise; everyone wins, given the circumstances.

CIFUS's national security concern would be addressed since the data would be under the custodian of a blue-blood American company, Oralce. Trump wins because he can brag that his intervention has resulted in a US company landing a large cloud contract, and if Walmart joins the party, another blue-blood American company has its hands in the jar. It's even better one of the company is his good friend (Larry Ellison). The US Department of Treasury can even get a cut of the deal. For someone proud of his deal making ability, this one is for the history book. The American users win because they get to continue to access their beloved social media platform.

For the US companies that have been interested in acquire TikTok US operation, it would be a very difficult integration even if the deal come through, as Microsoft had said earlier in the negotiating stage, it would take at least a year to completely take over the codes and some even said it might take eight years. The success of TikTok is much more than the algorithm, even more than the data. It is their close integration of technology, data, process and organization structure that is the secret sauce. It has taken years and many trials-and-errors for TikTok to figure out how to make it work. Chinese government's step-in has supported and boosted ByteDance's negotiating stance, and gives everyone an excuse to take a step back and be more rational.

So everyone wins. The potential spoiler would be Trump's ego, because he has said repeatedly that TikTok has either to be closed or sold to US companies. If he feels a loss of face because the current deal does not go exactly as he demanded, he may still kill it.
 

AssassinsMace

Brigadier
It's far from over. Trump has a bunch white supremacists in his administration. They won't like this deal. Trump doesn't like compromise because that's weakness. He's already said TikTok has to be sold to an American company or its gets kicked-out. If Trump doesn't follow through with his demands, it was all a bluff and it shows how the US will suffer consequences if it did follow through when Trump's actions don't match his words. Now when you have an ego like Trump he might follow through just to save face regardless of how much it hurts the US.
 

AndrewS

Major
Registered Member
It's far from over. Trump has a bunch white supremacists in his administration. They won't like this deal. Trump doesn't like compromise because that's weakness. He's already said TikTok has to be sold to an American company or its gets kicked-out. If Trump doesn't follow through with his demands, it was all a bluff and it shows how the US will suffer consequences if it did follow through when Trump's actions don't match his words. Now when you have an ego like Trump he might follow through just to save face regardless of how much it hurts the US.
Oracle and WalMart should be able to massage Trump's ego to his satisfaction.

Treasury and Commerce should be supportive as well.
 

AndrewS

Major
Registered Member
It appears to be a good compromise; everyone wins, given the circumstances.

CIFUS's national security concern would be addressed since the data would be under the custodian of a blue-blood American company, Oralce. Trump wins because he can brag that his intervention has resulted in a US company landing a large cloud contract, and if Walmart joins the party, another blue-blood American company has its hands in the jar. It's even better one of the company is his good friend (Larry Ellison). The US Department of Treasury can even get a cut of the deal. For someone proud of his deal making ability, this one is for the history book. The American users win because they get to continue to access their beloved social media platform.

For the US companies that have been interested in acquire TikTok US operation, it would be a very difficult integration even if the deal come through, as Microsoft had said earlier in the negotiating stage, it would take at least a year to completely take over the codes and some even said it might take eight years. The success of TikTok is much more than the algorithm, even more than the data. It is their close integration of technology, data, process and organization structure that is the secret sauce. It has taken years and many trials-and-errors for TikTok to figure out how to make it work. Chinese government's step-in has supported and boosted ByteDance's negotiating stance, and gives everyone an excuse to take a step back and be more rational.

So everyone wins. The potential spoiler would be Trump's ego, because he has said repeatedly that TikTok has either to be closed or sold to US companies. If he feels a loss of face because the current deal does not go exactly as he demanded, he may still kill it.
There are losers here.

Everyone in the world can see that the US is making outrageous demands, which hurts the reputation and goodwill afforded to the US.

Plus every country can now demand that they need control of their own user data, and that this cannot be sent to US-based servers

So Google, Facebook, Instagram, Amazon, Apple are going to have to make the same sort of deals with other countries if they want to operate. India and Germany come to mind as the first candidates.

And because data will no longer be stored in the USA - the NSA will no longer have access to spy on people.

So overall, the USA loses in the long-run, due to another self-inflicted wound.
 

caudaceus

Junior Member
Registered Member
It appears to be a good compromise; everyone wins, given the circumstances.

CIFUS's national security concern would be addressed since the data would be under the custodian of a blue-blood American company, Oralce. Trump wins because he can brag that his intervention has resulted in a US company landing a large cloud contract, and if Walmart joins the party, another blue-blood American company has its hands in the jar. It's even better one of the company is his good friend (Larry Ellison). The US Department of Treasury can even get a cut of the deal. For someone proud of his deal making ability, this one is for the history book. The American users win because they get to continue to access their beloved social media platform.

For the US companies that have been interested in acquire TikTok US operation, it would be a very difficult integration even if the deal come through, as Microsoft had said earlier in the negotiating stage, it would take at least a year to completely take over the codes and some even said it might take eight years. The success of TikTok is much more than the algorithm, even more than the data. It is their close integration of technology, data, process and organization structure that is the secret sauce. It has taken years and many trials-and-errors for TikTok to figure out how to make it work. Chinese government's step-in has supported and boosted ByteDance's negotiating stance, and gives everyone an excuse to take a step back and be more rational.

So everyone wins. The potential spoiler would be Trump's ego, because he has said repeatedly that TikTok has either to be closed or sold to US companies. If he feels a loss of face because the current deal does not go exactly as he demanded, he may still kill it.
 

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