I don't see how the US can contract just 7% for the year. Mathematically, that means a combined -28% all 4 quarters added up. Q1 was -5%. Q2 is something like -35% so that's about -40% right there. To get to -28%, that means Q3 and Q4 have to be average positive 6% each, and that's compared to 2019 Q3/Q4, not the disastrous quarters that just followed. When was the last time the US posted 6% for a quarter even in the healthiest economy? That's not to mention that it would be a massive achievement for the US to even begin to recover (>0%) in Q3 (or even Q4), which is very much in the air and looking worse as the pandemic in the US rages on. I don't see how they can confine all 4 quarters total to just -28%.
It's either gonna be another lock down from now on or people die and that takes down GDP.
Imagine all the fucked up lungs, kidneys, and hearts after this.